REMEMBERING NINE OF THE WORST NATURAL DISASTERS (in terms of casualties) Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA

NOVEMBER 1970 BHOLA CYCLONE: BANGLADESH DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 500,000.

Fast Forward to 2015 GLOBAL GOAL: Implementing the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction From WCDRR

LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES PART 4: CYCLONES

FACT: SEVERAL NATIONS NEED TO BE CYCLONE DISASTER RESILIENT INDIA, BANGLADESH, and MYANMAR--- where some of the world’s poorest of the poor live AUSTRALIA

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION SEVERE WINDSTORMS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK CYCLONE DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTIONS EARLY WARNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS Wind profile Storm Hazards: -Wind pressure -Surge -Rain -Flood -Waves -Salt water -Missiles -TornadoesOceanOcean Gradient Wind

WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE CYCLONES UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS STORM SURGE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN A SHORT TIME FLASH FLOODING (MUDFLOWS) LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) CAUSES OF RISK GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES

PILLARS OF CYCLONE DISASTER RESILIENCE Preparedness Adoption and Implementation of a Modern Wind Engineering Building Code Timely Early Warning and Evacuation Timely Emergency Response (including Emergency Medical Services) Casualty insurance to underwrite losses Cost-Effective Recovery

WE CONTINUE TO OPERATE WITH A FLAWED PREMISE: KNOWLEDGE FROM CYCLONE DISASTERS, WHICH OCCUR ANNUALLY IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC AND INDIAN OCEANS, IS ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY NATION SUSCEPTIBLE TO CYCLONES ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES THAT WILL FACILITATE ITS DISASTER RESILIENCE

FACT: IT USUALLY TAKES MULTIPLE CYCLONE DISASTERS BEFORE A STRICKEN NATION WILL ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES THAT MOVE IT TOWARDS CYCLONE DISASTER RESILIENCE

TYPICAL SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS A community’s Capital (i.e., the governing functions) is shut down for an indefinite period of time Downed trees Flooded streets Power outages Roofs ripped off

TYPICAL SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS Major roads blocked by debris Bridges washed out or impassible Sea wall, levees, etc., damaged Airport closed; planes damaged on the runway Landslides

TYPICAL SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS Region- and locale-specific damage to food crops and “money crops” (i.e., exportable goods)

EXAMPLES OF PAST CYCLONE DISASTERS

INDIA CYCLONE PHALIN—One of Many OCTOBER 12, 2013

CYCLONE PHALIN”S IMPACT AREA

AUSTRALIA Cyclone TRACY: 1974 Cyclone LARRY: 2006 Cyclone HAMISH: 2009

AUSTRALIA

IMPACTS OF CYCLONE TRACY Cyclone Tracy devastated the city of Darwin in Australia’s Northern Territory from Christmas Eve to Christmas Day, 1974.

IMPACTS OF TRACY Tracy killed 71 people, caused AS837 million in damage (1974 dollars) and destroyed more than 70 percent of Darwin's buildings, including 80 percent of the houses.

IMPACTS OF TRACY More than 30,000 of Darwin’s 47,000 inhabitants were evacuated tom Adelaide, Whvalla, Alice, Springs, and Sydney. Many never returned to Darwin.

IMPACTS OF CYCLONE LARRY Throughout Queensland, Cyclone Larry resulted in A$1.5 billion ($1.1 billion USD) in damage, making Larry,at that time the costliest tropical cyclone to ever impact Australia, surpassing 1974’s Cyclone Tracy’s losses.

CYCLONE HAMISH’S IMPACTS Hamish, a CAT 4 storm with 290 kph (175 mph) winds, disrupted coal exports and slowed the tourist industry. A major oil spill occurred and polluted the beaches.

CYCLONE NARGIS STRIKES MYANMAR (BURMA) MAY 2-8, 2008 INADEQUATE ADVANCE WARNING MILITARY JUNTA SLOW TO ALLOW AID INITIAL DEATH TOLL UNDER- ESTIMATED; REACHED 140,000 THOUSANDS OF HOMES DESTROYED ONE MILLION LEFT HOMELESS

PATH OF CYCLONE NARGIS: MAY 2-3, 2008 :

A BAD TIME FOR CYCLONE NARGIS NARGIS STRUCK JUST DAYS BEFORE A REFERENDUM ON A NEW CONSTITUTION. MYANMAR, ALSO KNOWN AS BURMA, HAS BEEN UNDER MILITARY RULE SINCE 1962.

BUDDHIST NEW YEAR: A BAD TIME FOR A CYCLONE MANY PEOPLE ACROSS THE GEOGRAPHIC REGION WERE IN MYANAMAR CELEBRATING WATER FESTIVAL AS PART OF THE BUDDHIST NEW YEAR. THE INFLUX OF VISITORS INCREASED LOSS OF LIFE AND EXACERBATED THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE PHASE.

People were completely unprepared for what happened.

LESSON: THE TIMING OF ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS IS VITAL The people who know: 1) what to expect (e.g., storm surge, high- velocity winds, rain, flash floods, and landslides,), 2) where and when it will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare will survive.

CYCLONE NARGIS WARNINGS WERE INADEQUATE Advance warnings grossly underestimated the arrival time, the wind speeds, and the storm surge. Storm surge and torrential rain caused local flooding.

CYCLONE NARGIS FLOODED YANGON, THE CAPITAL

CYCLONE NARGIS: FLOODING IN YANGOON:

CYCLONE NARGIS: The storm's 120 mph winds blew the roofs off hospitals, downed trees, cut electricity to 6.5 million in Yangoon, the capital, and destroyed 90% of the housing in some villages.

CYCLONE NARGIS: DOWNED TREES IN YANGOON:

CYCLONE NARGIS: DOWNED TREES:

CYCLONE NARGIS: DOWNED POWER LINES IN YANGOON:

CYCLONE NARGIS: DAMAGED CARS IN YANGOON

CYCLONE NARGIS: DEBRIS IN YANGOON

BUDDHIST MONKS CLEARING ROAD

USING A BUCKET OF WATER FOR A SHOWER

SURVIVORS: TEMPORARY HOUSING, MAY 10

TAKING SHELTER IN A BUDDHIST TEMPLE

SURVIVORS: TEMPORARY HOUSING, MAY 10

GENERAL THAN SHWE INSPECTING TEMPORARY HOUSING

SURVIVORS: FLOODED RICE FIELDS, MAY 16

SURVIVORS: BOGALE, MAY 21

SURVIVORS: SETTING UP ELECTRICAL GENERATOR, MAY 22

SURVIVORS: REBUILDING WITH FEW MATERIALS, MAY 22

SURVIVORS: WAITING FOR FOOD THAT WAS SLOW COMING, MAY 27

FOOD, BUT WITHOUT ANYONE TO DISTRIBUTE IT, MAY 27

NEED FOR INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE: THE INITIAL EMERGENCY RESPONSE WAS SLOW, PARTLY BECAUSE THE EXTENT OF THE DISASTER WAS GROSSLY UNDERESTIMATED.

DELAY IN RECEIVING INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE: THE RULING MILITARY JUNTA ASKED FOR INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE, ALTHOUGH, SEVERAL NATIONS RESPONDED IMMEDIATELY, THE RULING MILITARY JUNTA WAITED 7 DAYS BEFORE ALLOWING VERY LIMITED ASSISTANCE TO BEGIN.

INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE: UN agencies such as UNICEF and other organizations such as World Food Program were working with the America Red Cross and other international NGO’s to determine the extent of the needs and to help meet them, as allowed by the ruling military junta.

INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE SLOWED: Australia, China, France, Germany, Singapore, Indonesia, USA, and others responded immediately, but were denied approval to start delivery of aid for several days.

LESSONS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS AUGUST 6, 2008 BASED ON ARTICLE PREPARED BY JOHN HOLMES UNITED NATIONS UNDERSECRETARY FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE AND EMERGENCY RELIEF COORDINATOR

FACTS ABOUT CYCLONE NARGIS WORST CYCLONE IN MYANMAR’S HISTORY ONE OF THE WORST CYCLONE DISASTER IN ASIA DURING PAST 15 YEARS 140,000 DEAD 2.4 MILLION SERIOUSLY AFFECTED

LESSONS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS First, no nation, rich or poor, can go it alone when confronted by a natural disaster of the magnitude of a Cyclone Nargis.

LESSONS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS Second, we must stay focused on the goal: assisting people in crisis;.. helping vulnerable people in need, not on the politics.

LESSONS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS Third, Nargis showed us a new model of humanitarian partnership, adding the special position and capabilities of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to those of the United Nations in working to build trust with the government

LESSONS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS Fourth, Nargis demonstrated once again the importance of disaster risk reduction and preparedness: simple in concept, low-cost measures such as local evacuation plans, shelters, and community early-warning systems.

LESSONS FROM CYCLONE NARGIS Fifth, Nargis demonstrated the extraordinary resilience of the Myanmar people.