Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection.

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Presentation transcript:

Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability BE-AWARE II Final Conference, November, Ronneby, Sweden Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument

Objective: 1.How to combine Impact with Vulnerability to obtain Damage? 2.The numerical result for damage must be applied to identify damage differences for different scenarios Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability ImpactVulnerability Damage ? Damage ref Damage 1 Damage 2 Damage 3 Damage 4 Diff 1 Diff 2 Diff 3 Diff 4

Definition of Damage General definition: Risk = Probability · Consequence, [EUR/year] Present definition: Risk = Probability · Impact·Vulnerability, [g oil'/y/m²)] Damage calculation: Integration of risk over frequencies and area, [g oil'] Damage is: amount of oil in each cell, spilt due to accidents (including drift, etc.) weighted according to env. and soc.-eco. vulnerability per cell time-averaged (seldom big + frequent small spills) summarised for a sub-region Environmental damage: Combining impact and vulnerability

Addition of damage at surface and in water column: Impact x Vulnerability => Damage All seasons, spill sizes, oil types, all winds, all accidents Base case: Surface Base case: Water column Damage

Oil on shore Mass of oil per shoreline in a specific sub-region. Combined with vulnerability of shoreline. Oil on surface mass (oil) per area water surface. combined with surface vulnerability Oil in the water column mass (oil) per area water column (horizontal area – assuming m layer thickness). combined with water column vulnerability Environmental damage: 3 types of impact

Challenging question: How shall environmental and socio-economic Damage balance Impact and Vulnerability? Mutual decision: Impact and Vulnerability shall be of equal consequence for environmental and socio-economic Damage "100% Damage = 50% Impact + 50% Vulnerability" Balance of impact and vulnerability

Frequency analysis of impact dataset: Range ( ) => dominant Frequency analysis of vulnerability dataset: Range: 1-50 Frequency analysis of data sets

Impact: Unchanged (physical dimension) Vulnerability: Transformed (index) Range of the vulnerability data is transformed so range is equal in both data sets Transformation of dataset

Preparation of comparable dataset: Transformation of dataset

2·4+2·4·9 = 80 maps Transformation Multiplication 2·4·9=72 datasets 9 damage maps 5x(9-1)= 40 values Process

Results: 1.Method to determine absolute damage (kg oil weighted). 2.Determine damage differences for each scenario: Summary Sub-region Scenarios 3) VTS (selected) 4) TSS (selected) 5) AIS alarms (selected) 6) E- navigation 7) ETV in Ireland 8) Visi- bility 9) Disper- sants only 10) +50%, 1 ves. DK

Questions? Thank you beaware.bonnagreement.org