1. Risk reduction and response scenarios BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument

2. Format Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Impact Oil on water [g] Dispersed oil in water [g] Oil on coast [g/year] Damage Oil damage[g weighted]

3. Change Risk reduction and reponse scenarios

4. Scenario overview Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Scenario name Risk Reducing Measure Response Measure Vessel Traffic Services (VTS)X Traffic Separation Schemes (TSS)X AIS alarm (Wind turbines)X E-navigationX New Emergency Towing Vessels (ETVs)X(X) Improved night detection capability X Further use of dispersants X 50% increase in response equipment X

5. VTS scenario Risk reduction and reponse scenarios ›The area where the traffic is affected by VTS is extended according to the figure ›Significant effect on vessels without pilots, limited effect on vessels with pilots

6. TSS scenario Risk reduction and reponse scenarios ›Risk of head-on collisions is reduced significantly for some of the routes. ›Additional risk of overtaking collisions ›Combined positive risk reduction effect of implementing the measure

7. AIS alarm – wind turbines Risk reduction and reponse scenarios ›Risk reduction effect comparable to VTS - Only on powered collisions

8. E-navigation Risk reduction and reponse scenarios IMO definition E-navigation is defined as “the harmonized collection, integration, exchange, presentation and analysis of marine information on board and ashore by electronic means to enhance berth to berth navigation and related services for safety and security at sea and protection of the marine environment.” ›The term E-Navigation covers a range of electronic systems which can improve the navigation and reduce the risk of accidents by providing additional information or alerting vessel crews to dangerous situations. ›A cost benefit analysis of E-navigation published by IMO May 2013 reviewed the various Risk Control Options including an evaluation of their risk reducing effect of various E-navigation by an expert group ›A generic risk reduction factor for all relevant types of maritime accidents can be developed based on the IMO paper. With an indicated risk reduction factor on all maritime accidents of between 8 and 17% for the individual e-navigation options in the paper, a combined reduction of 25% to illustrate the effect of E- navigation in general has been used. Based on the numbers in the report this is a conservative estimation. ›This scenario is applied to the full model area.

9. New ETVs Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Measure the regional effect of inserting three new ETVs. It is underlined that the ETV’s actually are both, a response and risk reducing measure, as they can prevent accidents as well as being involved in the recovery of oil following a spill. ›Risk reduction effect of ETVs – reduction of the oil spill by 30%. ›Furthermore response capacity is included on the vessels and the response model is therefore also influenced.

10. Night detection Risk reduction and reponse scenarios ›The combination of dedicated oil detection radars and infrared cameras on oil response vessels increases the recovery capability of these vessels during the night and in bad weather. This scenario investigates the effect of implementing these systems to an additional number of vessels.

11. Further use of dispersants Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Currently only the UK apply dispersants as a part of its first line of oil spill response, however other Contracting Parties may use them under special conditions or are investigating their further use. This scenario investigates the effect of applying dispersants in the full Bonn Agreement area. The same dispersant response capability as currently used for UK waters is applied for all other areas as well, including spill size and response time limitations, etc. The principle is to apply dispersants in areas with a water depth greater than 20m plus 1nm.

12. 50% additional response equipment Risk reduction and reponse scenarios ›Additional 50% usable equipment ›Additional vessels where necessary to support equipment ›Additional response vessel in Esbjerg. +50%

13. Results – Region 1 Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Region 1 - Oil on coast ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -0,39%-0,08%-0,27% TSS -0,55%-0,15%-0,40% AIS Alarm -0,14%-0,65%-0,33% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland -0,03%-5,54%-2,10% Night visibility -1,07%-0,49%-0,85% Dispersants -0,78%-0,40%-0,64% +50% response -1,16%-1,10%-1,14% Region 1 - Oil on water ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -0,39%-0,04%-0,19% TSS -0,69%-0,08%-0,34% AIS Alarm -0,33%-1,12%-0,79% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland -0,06%-3,02%-1,78% Night visibility -1,00%-0,54%-0,73% Dispersants -1,38%-0,75%-1,01% +50% response -0,98%-1,35%-1,19%

14. Results – Region 1 Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Region 1 - Dispersed oil in water ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS 0,00% TSS 0,00% AIS Alarm -0,34%-1,46%-0,61% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland -0,07%-0,14%-0,09% Night visibility 0,00% Dispersants 47,51%31,54%43,66% +50% response 0,00% Region 1 - Damage ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS-0,27%-0,04%-0,17% TSS-0,41%-0,08%-0,26% AIS Alarm-0,47%-3,34%-1,74% E-navigation-25% ETV in Ireland-0,12%-3,52%-1,63% Night visibility-1,74%-0,63%-1,25% Dispersants2,23%0,47%1,45% +50% response-1,91%-1,39%-1,68%

15. Results – Region 2 Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Region 2 - Oil on coast ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -0,68%-0,42%-0,63% TSS -0,11%-0,58%-0,20% AIS Alarm -0,01%-0,23%-0,05% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland 0,00% Night visibility -0,07%-0,08%-0,07% Dispersants 0,03%-0,33%-0,03% +50% response -1,00%-2,25%-1,23% Region 2 - Oil on water ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -3,09%-3,15%-3,12% TSS -4,21%-6,21%-5,20% AIS Alarm -0,17%-0,18% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland 0,00% Night visibility -0,02%-0,16%-0,09% Dispersants 0,16%-0,28%-0,06% +50% response -0,45%-2,00%-1,22%

16. Results – Region 2 Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Region 2 - Dispersed oil in water ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -0,13%-0,15%-0,14% TSS 0,00% AIS Alarm -0,07%-0,57%-0,15% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland 0,00% Night visibility 0,00% Dispersants 55,61%81,23%59,61% +50% response 0,00% Region 2 - Damage ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS-1,13%-1,52%-1,28% TSS-0,70%-1,60%-1,04% AIS Alarm-0,12%-0,49%-0,26% E-navigation-25% ETV in Ireland0,00% Night visibility-0,04%-0,18%-0,09% Dispersants4,18%1,29%3,10% +50% response-1,04%-1,85%-1,34%

17. Results – Region 3 Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Region 3 - Oil on coast ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -27,06%-28,27%-27,56% TSS -22,42%-43,55%-31,09% AIS Alarm -0,51%-0,35%-0,45% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland 0,00% Night visibility -0,15%-0,11%-0,13% Dispersants -7,59%-3,27%-5,82% +50% response -1,19%-0,86%-1,06% Region 3 - Oil on water ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -31,59%-30,53%-30,95% TSS -53,24%-50,92%-51,84% AIS Alarm -0,80%-1,04%-0,95% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland 0,00% Night visibility -0,18%-0,61%-0,44% Dispersants 8,98%0,32%3,73% +50% response -1,10%-2,14%-1,73%

18. Results – Region 3 Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Region 3 - Dispersed oil in water ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -20,33%-15,36%-19,49% TSS 0,00% AIS Alarm -0,16%-0,01%-0,13% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland 0,00% Night visibility 0,00% Dispersants 138516421428 +50% response 0,00% Region 3 - Damage ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS-24,66%-28,57%-26,58% TSS-34,87%-48,64%-41,62% AIS Alarm-1,68%-0,93%-1,31% E-navigation-25% ETV in Ireland0,00% Night visibility-0,13%-0,31%-0,22% Dispersants52,75%12,07%32,80% +50% response-2,22%-1,72%-1,97%

19. Results – Region 4 Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Region 4 - Oil on coast ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -14,30%-15,45%-14,87% TSS -1,01%-0,94%-0,97% AIS Alarm -1,17%-1,15%-1,16% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland 0,00% Night visibility -0,01%-1,08%-0,53% Dispersants -4,62%-3,08%-3,86% +50% response -0,89%-1,51%-1,20% Region 4 - Oil on water ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -22,41%-21,21%-21,70% TSS -3,83%-2,52%-3,06% AIS Alarm -1,61%-3,61%-2,79% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland 0,00% Night visibility -0,04%-1,77%-1,06% Dispersants 10,21%3,65%6,35% +50% response -1,04%-2,68%-2,01%

20. Results – Region 4 Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Region 4 - Dispersed oil in water ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -29,57%-22,36%-27,11% TSS 0,00% AIS Alarm -0,45%-1,24%-0,72% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland 0,00% Night visibility 0,00% Dispersants 264%349%293% +50% response 0,00% Region 4 - Damage ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS-12,42%-9,37%-10,74% TSS-3,33%-2,39%-2,82% AIS Alarm-1,96%-1,32%-1,61% E-navigation-25% ETV in Ireland0,00% Night visibility-0,02%-1,69%-0,94% Dispersants17,73%13,00%15,12% +50% response-1,98%-2,67%-1,91%

21. Results – Region 5 Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Region 5 - Oil on coast ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -3,97%-3,05%-3,43% TSS -0,02%-0,01% AIS Alarm -0,38%-0,79%-0,62% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland 0,00%-0,01%0,00% Night visibility -0,15%-0,75%-0,50% Dispersants -4,14%-3,44%-3,73% +50% response -0,55%-1,02%-0,83% Region 5 - Oil on water ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -1,18%-0,72%-0,86% TSS 0,00% AIS Alarm -0,19%-0,41%-0,34% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland 0,00%-0,04%-0,02% Night visibility -0,74%-1,56%-1,30% Dispersants 6,80%1,31%3,01% +50% response -0,88%-2,18%-1,78%

22. Results – Region 5 Risk reduction and reponse scenarios Region 5 - Dispersed oil in water ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS -0,78%-0,60%-0,70% TSS 0,00% AIS Alarm -0,10%-0,18%-0,14% E-navigation -25% ETV in Ireland 0,00% Night visibility 0,00% Dispersants 101%145%120% +50% response 0,00% Region 5 - Damage ScenarioSpill<5000tSpill>5000tTotal VTS-3,84%-2,71%-3,18% TSS-0,01%0,00%-0,01% AIS Alarm-0,24%-0,36%-0,31% E-navigation-25% ETV in Ireland0,00%-0,01% Night visibility-0,14%-1,11%-0,71% Dispersants37,43%19,69%27,07% +50% response-0,70%-1,71%-1,29%

23. Results – Overview Effectiveness Risk reduction and response scenarios Regional overview – 3 most effective scenarios Region12345 Parameter (coast, surface, dispersed) csdcsdcsdcsdcsd Scenario VTS 3332222213 2 Scenario TSS 2 11 3 Scenario AIS Alarm 2 2 3 3 3 Scenario E- navigation 111111331112111 Scenario ETVs 223 Scenario Night visibility 3 Scenario Dispersants Scenario +50% response 33 2 3 22

24. Results – Overview Damage Regional overview for damage – 3 most effective scenarios Region12345 Scenario VTS 3222 Scenario TSS 13 Scenario AIS Alarm2 Scenario E-navigation11311 Scenario ETV in Ireland Scenario Night visibility Scenario Dispersants Scenario +50% response 32 3

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