1. MARCSMARCS Marine Accident Risk Calculation System

2. Accidents Modelled Ship-ship collisions Powered grounding Drift grounding Fire and explosion while underway Structural failure/foundering

3. Structure of MARCS Accident Consequence Data Accident Consequence Data Accident/Incident Frequency Data Accident/Incident Frequency Data Accident Frequency Factors Accident Frequency Factors Accident Consequence Factors Accident Consequence Factors Accident Frequencies Accident Frequencies Accident Consequence Calculator Accident Consequence Calculator Results Accident Frequency Calculator Accident Frequency Calculator Shipping Lane Data Shipping Lane Data Environmental Data Environmental Data Event Tree Analysis Event Tree Analysis Fault Tree Analysis Fault Tree Analysis OR

9. Tanker

10. GenCar

11. Bulk

12. Ferry

13. Oil Tanker Lanes - Case 1 < 0.1 Vessels / day 0.1 - 0.5 Vessels / day 0.5 - 1 Vessels / day 1 - 5 Vessels / day 5 - 10 Vessels / day > 10 Vessels / day

14. 1,0e-1 - 1,0e-6 Accidents per year 1,0e-6 - 1,0e-5 1,0e-5 - 1,0e-4 1,0e-4 - 1,0e-3 1,0e-3 - 1,0e-2 >1,0 e-2

16. RATIO OF PREDICTED ACCIDENT FREQUENCIES TO HISTORICAL ACCIDENT FREQUENCES