1. Accidents and potential releases of mineral oil the Bonn Agreement Area Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden

2. Overview Background Introduction to the different accident types Frequency of the accident types Spills from the different accident types Future scenario Regional differences Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest Summary and Conclusions Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

3. Background Task H Oil spills Overall objective: Apply the accident model to describe the: – Accident type – Location – Spill size – Spill substance Basis: Traffic model Cargo model Risk Reducing measures Accident statistics Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

4. Background Accidents covered - Ship-ship collision model Node collisions Route collisions - Groundings - STS/bunkering operations/loading buoy/FPSO - Offshore platforms Operational spills Spills from collisions - Wind parks Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

5. Accident types Ship-Ship collisions Route collisions The collision frequencies depend on: the length of the route segment the traffic intensity in each direction the length, breadth and speed of the ships the deviation of the ships from the route axis the causation probability Pc Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil Head-on Overtaking

6. Accident types Ship-Ship collisions Node collisions The collision frequencies depend on: the traffic intensity in each direction the length, breadth and speed of the ships the crossing angle the causation probability Pc Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

7. Accident frequency, 2011 All types of accidents Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

8. Accident frequency All types of accidents Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

9. Accident frequency Dover Strait Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

10. Accident frequency All types of accidents German Bight Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

11. Accidental spills, 2011 (t/year) All types of accidents All sizes of spills, the average spill is dominated by extremely large spills (long term average) Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

12. Accidental spills, 2011 All types of accidents Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

13. Accidental spills, 2011 All types of accidents Dover Strait Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

14. Accidental spills, 2011 All types of accidents German Bight Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

15. Accidental spills, 2011 All types of accidents North Sea Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

16. Accidental spills, 2011 Small spills <300t Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

17. Accidental spills, 2011 Medium spills 300t-5000t Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

18. Accidentall spills, 2011 Large spills > 5000t Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

19. Accident frequency - 2020 All types of accidents Future scenario 2020 Changes: Windparks TSS Traffic - routes - vessel size - voyages Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

20. Accidental spills - 2020 All types of accidents Future scenario 2020 Changes: Windparks TSS Traffic - routes - vessel size - voyages Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

21. Accidentall spills - 2020 All types of accidents Future scenario 2020 Small spills <300t Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

22. Accident spills - 2020 All types of accidents Future scenario 2020 Medium spills 300t-5000t Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

23. Accident spills - 2020 All types of accidents Future scenario 2020 Large spills >5000t Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

24. Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil TSS reduces risks significantly 2020

25. Risk Reducing Measures and areas of interest Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil VTS has significant effect on ships with no pilots 2020

26. Regional results Project area and sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

27. Regional results, 2011 Project area and sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

28. Regional results, 2020 Project area and sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

29. Regional results Divided into sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

30. Regional results, 2011 Divided into sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

31. Regional results, 2020 Divided into sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Results of the Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil

32. Methodology Summary and conclusion 1 Areas with high intensity traffic in narrow lanes gives large contributions when no TSS is applied Largest contributions to reduction of route collisions from TSS Largest contributor to node collisions at Dover Straight Not insignificant contributions from the operational spills from platforms Substantial regional differences in accidents and spills

33. Methodology Summary and conclusion 2 Substantial risk for spills from platforms (Ship-platform collisions, platform accidents, blow-out) Little risk for spills from wind farms (ship-Wind turbine collision) Development of risk on sub-regional level: SB4: More risk for collision, wind farms SB5: More risk for collision Impact of spills have not been evaluated (Be-Aware II)

34. Questions? Thank you beaware.bonnagreement.org