1 The role of biomass in the UK energy system TSEC-BIOSYS: A whole systems approach to bioenergy demand and supply Ausilio Bauen Imperial College London Biomass role in the UK energy futures The Royal Society, London: 28 th & 29 th July 2009

Introduction  TSEC-Biosys has aimed to improve the understanding of:  The UK energy crop potential  Its spatial distribution  Its costs  The competitiveness of energy crops and other biomass in providing future energy services  Policymakers, industry and other stakeholders need to have visibility of these issues to develop strategies and positions

Modelling optimal distribution of energy crops and their potential  Willow and Poplar favoured in the West, Miscanthus in the East  Average yield is about 12 odt/ha/yr  Average yield similar on ALCs 1 – 4, significantly reduced on ALC5

UK energy crop cost distribution  Significant potential between £45 and £65 /odt

UK energy crop supply cost curves  Short term deployment on c. 650 kha  8 Modt  Average cost £50.1 – £55.6 /odt; 95 th percentile cost £53.8 – £57.4 /odt  For a more more even distribution average cost increases 10% - 20%

The competitiveness of UK energy crops  UK energy crops likely to be competitive with imported solid biomass – import price estimated to range between £60 and £120 /odt (strongly dependent on international market conditions and bulk international transport costs)

The contribution of bioenergy to UK final energy demand  Final energy share up to about 15% in 2050 and 8% in 2020  Strong ramp up to 2020; up to 1/3 of solid biomass could be UK energy crops  Bulk of final use in heat (38% in 2050 and 13% in 2020), important share of transport (8% in 2050 and 7% in 2020), small share of electricity (1% in 2050 and 2% in 2020) Global sustainability scenario

The contribution of bioenergy to UK final energy demand  Solid biomass provides the bulk of the resource  Energy crops assumed to ramp up to a sustainably exploitable area of 1.5 Mha  UK resource contributes over 1/3  Range of technologies combustion, gasification, pyrolysis, AD, fermentation Global sustainability scenario

Scenarios vary with environmental and energy security considerations  Significant contribution in all scenarios, but with reallocation between final end uses

Conclusions  Energy crops planted on 1.5 Mha of land could provide about 2.6% of UK primary energy need in 2020 (based on static yields)  They could provide 3/4 of the biomass resource needed to meet the UK’s RES heat and electricity biomass target  Agricultural and forestry residues and organic wastes could at least double the potential  Imports of solid biomass and liquid fuels can grow substantially  Overall a biomass can be a significant least cost solution to a low C energy future  RES proposes supply and demand side incentives to help ramp up  But ramp up and sustained deployment needs to be backed by:  an understanding of the constraints and risks  developments in agronomy, infrastructure, technologies and planning  encouraging best and sustainable use of resources  an informed industry  broader stakeholder buy in

11 Thank you for your attention!