1. 1 TSEC-BIOSYS: Shaping the Future Bioeconomy www.tsec-biosys.ac.uk Theme 3: Roland Clift Damiete Ogunkunle Philip Sinclair Centre for Environmental Strategy, University of Surrey Biomass role in the UK energy futures The Royal Society, London: 28 th & 29 th July 2009

2. Sustainable development and sustainability Sustainable development meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (WCED, 1987) Sustainable development involves participatory processes of interaction between the human economy, society and the environment (Mitchell et al, 2004) Sustainability is the possibility that humans and other life flourish on the Earth forever (Ehrenfeld, 2008) “Acid” test of a sustainable development framework: does it aid processes which support sustainable development to come into being?

3. Multi-Criterion Decision Analysis (MCDA) Discrete, qualitative criteria and options for a decision are elicited from participants Learning leads to comparisons Various methods are used to construct a view of decision maker preferences consistent with a certain set of assumptions (e.g. reference level, value measurement, outranking; Belton and Stewart, 2002; Keeney and Raiffa, 1976) Areas of ignorance are recognised; uncertainties are due to the consequences of the incompleteness and fallibility of knowledge

4. Scenarios: “… plausible descriptions of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions (“scenario logic”) about key relationships and driving forces…” (Nakicenovic et al., UNDP, 2000 )

5. Characteristics of Biomass as an Energy Source: Versatile but this means: Multiple possible supply chains Multiple possible uses Different possible scales of implementation No established infrastructure or market i.e. both more complex and more complicated than other primary energy sources, with much scope for confusion of policy…

6. Bioenergy: scales of operation RCEPscenarios Geographical and temporal scales for bioenergy technologies, comparative activities and scenarios (after Connors, 2007)

7. Narratives Methods have been devised for writing narratives from qualitative systems models (e.g., Hector et al, 2007) Within this project, this method has been tested for the UK bioenergy system in a “narrative workshop” The evaluation of a narrative depends on the “decision frame” of the reader. The frame that a reader adopts is controlled partly by the content of the narrative and partly by the norms, habits and personal characteristics of the reader (Tversky and Kahneman, 1981). A set of narratives from this workshop, written for different audiences, are in evaluation with a range of different readers

8. Systematic Process to Construct Narratives: 1.Workshop to: identify influences; construct qualitative system model. 2.Use system model as a basis for writing “narratives” to explain options and possible scenarios and to inform quantitative modelling.

9. An example of a Trilemma - “The Archers Trilemma” ECO-CENTRISM SOCIAL EQUITY FREE-MARKET CAPITALISM SD Ideals Avarice Eco- system services

10. The Trilemma System Map

11. Evaluation of this approach: The effectiveness of the narratives is proven if (a) their informational content is consistent irrespective of the narrator (b) the learning of the reader is independent of the writing of the narrators EFFICIENCY – Very time-consuming…

12. Future Directions Apply this approach to structuring other problems characterised by a large number of diverse influences and forces. Use qualitative and quantitative models to inform each other.

13. Biomass Resources for Heat UtopiaDystopia Forestry biomass Utopia Dystopia Waste biomass Waste biomass Utopia Dystopia Agricultur e biomass Agricultur e biomass Ecosystem services Rural economic development “Likely” future “Desirable” future “As-Is” Forestry products (available for energy) Forestry residues Clean wood industrial by-products Organic Fraction of Municipal Solid Waste (OFMSW) Sewage sludge Commercial industrial waste (mainly F&D industry) Other industrial co-products (e.g. black liquor) Energy crops (woody and grassy) Agricultural residues (straw and other) Waste minimisation

14. Interaction between qualitative and quantitative (MARKAL) modelling: Qualitative system models define the systems, i.e. supply chains and uses, to be represented in the MARKAL model scenarios. Narratives condense the outcome of the MARKAL scenarios in a way which (should) make(s) them intelligible to a non-specialist (and possibly non- quantitative) audience – SEE EXAMPLES