GECAFS SCENARIOS Need for scenarios GECAFS scenario requirements Scenario work elsewhere Developing GECAFS scenarios.

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Presentation transcript:

GECAFS SCENARIOS Need for scenarios GECAFS scenario requirements Scenario work elsewhere Developing GECAFS scenarios

WHEN ARE SCENARIOS NEEDED? INFO QUAL Hi Lo ABILITY TO CONTROL OUTCOMES Hi Hedge Forecasts Optimization Adaptive Mgt Scenarios

NEED FOR SCENARIOS: A GECAFS PERSPECTIVE Consider future uncertainty Provide story line for key indicators Define set of plausible futures (min scen set) Interpret “Changing Socio-economic Conditions” Blend quantitative & qualitative info Provide linkages between GECAFS regional studies & other scales Provide context for GECAFS regional studies Provide foundation for linkages across regional studies

GECAFS SCENARIO ATTRIBUTES: PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT (APR 01) Scales Temporal: 1-5 yrs (10 max) Spatial: regional/national with links to GECAFS projects Key Variables Food systems: production, availability, accessibility Socio-econ: pop., econ performance, tech., inst., policies Bio-phys: climate, water, land

EXISTING SCENARIOS UNEP (real regional data content is increasing) POLESTAR (global scenario group) TARGET (Netherlands) WCRP suite on climate Millennium Assessment FAO (water, land, fibre supply, pop’n Pop’n – Columbia University Marine – FAO, Int. Mangrove and coral projects

SELECTED RECENT SCENARIO STUDIES Global Scenario Group: GSG (SEI) Time: 2050Regions: 11 Focus: Environment, poverty reduction, human values Scenarios: Conventional worlds (market forces, policy reform) Barbarization (breakdown, fortress world) Great Transitions: (eco-communalism, new sustainability)

SELECTED RECENT SCENARIO STUDIES cont’d Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: SRS (IPCC) Time: 2100Regions: 4 Focus: Climate change Scenarios: A1: Rapid market growth, economic & cultural globalization A2: Self-reliance & cultural identity preserved, fragmented development B1: Similar to A1 but global solutions for sustainability B2: Local sustainability solutions to soc-econ & env issues

SELECTED RECENT SCENARIO STUDIES cont’d MA Proto-scenarios Time: about +50 yrsRegions: ? Focus: Derived from GSG, SRES, etc. Scenarios: 1: Market driven globalization, trade liberalization, institutional modernization 2: Like 1 but sustaining ecosystems policies in place 3: Developed world: shift to sustainability. Developing world: Poverty reduction, sustability emphasized 4. Fragmented development: preserve regional econ & local culture 5. Elites fortress (national or local), poverty outside

SUGGESTIONS FOR DEVELOPING GECAFS SCENARIOS Firm up GECAFS scenario attributes Inventory of existing scenarios sets Appraise existing scenarios w.r.t. GECAFS scenario attributes Consult with GECAFS regional projects Develop GECAFS scenarios report

BUILDING GECAFS SCENARIOS GECAFS NEEDSSEIIPCCMA??? Food production Food availability Food accessibility Population GDP Institutions Climate Water Land use

GECAFS SCENARIO ISSUES Issues of vulnerability difficult to identify in groups that do not have income Estimate degree of dependence on local natural resources – most vulnerable group Mismatch in scales Data on institutions likely to be missing or not well recorded Cultural influences on food demand unrecorded Very important to understand the quality of data