1. Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development: A Framework for Integration John Robinson CLA, WGIII July 18, 2001

2. Purpose of Presentation Report on the findings from TAR WGIII and the SRES that relate to the issue of sustainable development

3. Why consider Sustainable Development (SD) in TAR? SD and climate change mitigation (CCM) are linked –SD policies may affect emissions and mitigative capacity –CCM affects SD prospects SAR pointed to connections but didn’t explore them in detail Cross-cutting paper on development, equity and sustainability produced

4. What is Sustainable Development? Many definitions but can usefully think of SD in terms of 10 challenges: - Clean air - Transportation - Clean water- Housing - Food- Jobs - Energy- Waste disposal - Land use- Health care Key is integration across all three domains of SD: social, economic and environmental

5. Elements of Sustainable Development

6. Socio-Economic Development Paths Climate Change Impacts Emissions An Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering Anthropogenic Climate Change Mitigation

7. Linkages between Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development in WGIII Development paths Ancillary benefits (Chapter 2) (Chapter 1) (Chapter 10) (Chapters 7-9) SD CCM (Chapters 3-6)

8. 1.Implications of CCM for SD 2.Implications of SD for CCM 3.Integrating CCM and SD Policies WGIII Findings SD CCM SD CCM SD CCM

9. 1. Implications of Climate Change Mitigation for Sustainable Development Climate change mitigation is likely to have significant impacts on the prospects for SD in various regions and sectors –Mitigation will reduce climate change and other impacts on human and natural systems (“ancillary benefits”) –Effects of mitigation policies and regimes

10. I. Unique and Threatened Systems II. Extreme Climate Events III. Distribution of Impacts IV. Global aggregate impacts V. Large Scale, High Impact Events Mitigation Limits Climate Change Impacts

11. Mitigation and Other Environmental Issues

12. Mitigation Policies and Sustainable Development Rate of mitigation affects employment, welfare and intergenerational impacts –Slower mitigation can reduce shock effects and lower costs if stabilization targets are higher –Faster mitigation can reduce negative longer-term impacts, induce technological change, and lower long-term costs if stabilization targets are lower

13. 2. Implications of Sustainable Development for Climate Change Mitigation Achieving SD goals will reduce emissions and contribute to mitigative capacity –This can be seen by taking a look at the SRES and post-SRES analyses

14. Development Paths and Emissions: SRES Baseline Scenarios A1A2 B2B1

15. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100 IPCC SRES A2 Scenarios A2 550 750 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100 IPCC SRES A1B Scenarios 450 550 650 Global Anthropogenic Carboon Dioxide Emissions (GtC) A1B 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100 IPCC SRES B1 Scenarios 450 550 B1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100 IPCC SRES A1T Scenarios A1T 450 550 650 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100 IPCC SRES B2 Scenarios 450 550 650 B2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100 IPCC SRES A1FI Scenarios 450 550 6 750 A Mitigation and Development Paths: Comparison of reference (SRES) and stabilization (post-SRES) scenarios A1B B2B1A2 A1FIA1T

16. 3. Integrating Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development Policies Climate change policies may be more effective if integrated into sustainable development goals and policies

17. Linkages between Climate Change Mitigation and Sustainable Development Avoided CC impacts Costs and distribution of costs Ancillary benefits Forestry/agriculture impacts Environmental & economic policies Human and social capital Infrastructure Innovation and technology CCM SD policy CCM policy SD

18. Conclusions There are strong linkages between CCM and SD Preliminary indications suggest that putting CCM in a SD context will improve the prospects for achieving both CCM and SD goals