1. Environmental Scenario Analysis Brief overview of global scenarios
Thomas Henrichs
European Environment Agency

2. Environmental Scenarios
Global / Regional Scenarios Outlooks (thematic / environment) Integrative Scenarios
Scenario Archetypes / Rationales
Global–level / Local-level integration

3. Thematic Outlooks (examples)
Demographics
e.g. World Population Prospects (UN Population Division)
Economy
e.g. World Economic Outlook Database (IMF)
Sectoral, i.e. Agriculture, Energy & Transport
e.g. World Agriculture : Towards 2015 / 2030 (FAO)
e.g. World Energy Outlook 2004 (IEA)
e.g. L-REM projections (DG TREN)
Resources & Pollution
e.g. Climate Change 1992 (IPCC)
e.g. World Water Demand and Supply, (IWMI)

4. Integrative Environmental Outlooks
Global Environment Outlook 2000
by UNEP
assessment based baseline scenario
OECD Environment Outlook
by OECD – next due 2007
economically driven baseline + policy variants
European Environment Outlook
by EEA – next due 2005
builds on ‘official’ EU baseline, contrast one CC variant
plus many examples of country-level (environment) outlooks

5. SRES-IPCC Scenarios Special Report on Emission Scenarios by IPCC
IPCC scenarios widely used
GHG emission up to 2100
4 scenario ‘families’
A1 : market driven, …
A2 : fragmented dev., …
B1 : market & policy, …
B2 : local green solution, …
Source: Nakicenovic et al (2000)

6. Global Scenarios Group
Global Scenarios Group Scenarios by SEI et al
Conventional Worlds
Barbarization
Great Transitions
CW envision the global system evolving without major surprises. Dominant values and institutions shape the future, world economy grows rapidly and dev countries converge toward the norms set by highly ind countries.
These scenarios envision the grim possibility that the social, economic and moral underpinnings of civilization deteriorate, as emerging problems overwhelm the coping capacity of both markets and policy reforms.
Great Transitions explore visionary solutions to the sustainability challenge, including new socioeconomic arrangements and fundamental changes in values.
Market Forces
Breakdown
Eco-Communalism
mid-range projections
self correcting logic of competitative markets
build up / combine crises
unbridled conflict
institutional disintegration
economic collapse
green visions of bio-regionalism, localism
face-to-face democracy
economic autarky.
Policy Reform
Fortress World
New Sustainability
mid-range projections
strong government ac-tion towards sustainability
env-friendly technology
authoritarian responses
protected elite enclaves
outside the fortress there is repression, environment destruction and misery.
changing urban environm.
building a more humane and equitable global civilization rather than retreat into localism.
Source:

7. GEO-3 Scenarios Global Environmental Outlook by UNEP
The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the values and expectations that prevail in industrialized countries.
In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to reach specific social and environmental goals.
The Security First scenario assumes a world of great disparities, where inequality and conflict prevail, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses.
In a Sustainability First world a new development paradigm emerges in response to the sustainability challenge, supported by more equitable values and institutions.
Source: UNEP (2000)

8. Ecosystem Scenarios
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment by World Bank et al
Four global scenarios on plausible trends in ecosystems
‘Rosy scenario’ dropped
Additional / coupled regional exercises, some with scenarios; e.g. Southern Africa
reactive
proactive
Global Orchestration
Techno Garden
Order from Strength
Adaptive Mosaic
Global
Regional
Source: Personal Communication (2003)

9. World Water Scenarios World Water Vision by UNESCO / World Bank
Business-as-Usual (BAU Scenario)
A continuation of current policies and extrapolation of trends.
Technology, Economics & Private Sector (TEC Scenario)
Private sector initiatives lead R&D, globalisation drives economic growth, but the poorest countries are left behind.
Values and Lifestyles (VAL-Scenario)
Sustainable development, with an emphasis on research and development in the poorest countries.
Source: Cosgrove & Rjisberman (2000)

10. Other on-going global exercises
GECAFS (Global environmental change and food systems)
by FAO, WMO, IGBP/IHDP – due 200 …
no new global scenarios, MA scenarios as entry point
IAASTD (International Agriculture Assessment)
by World Bank – due 2007
will refine MA scenarios in view of ‘AKST’
GEO-4 (Global Environmental Outlook 4)
by UNEP – due 2007
will use GEO-3 scenarios as ‘first draft’ and ‘add detail’ …

11. Archetypes of Global Scenarios
Many global scenarios follow one archetypical view of a future ‘world’:
Market Driven Worlds
BAU Scenario (WWV)
Markets First (GEO-3)
SRES A1 (IPCC)
Conventional Worlds (GSG)
most ‘Baselines’ / ‘Outlooks’
Policy Fix Worlds
Policy Reform (GSG)
Policy First (GEO-3)
Global Orchestration (MA)
SRES B1 (IPCC)
Tech Optimist Worlds
Techno Garden (MA)
TEC Scenario (WWV)
Value Change Worlds
Sustainability First (GEO-3)
VAL Scenario (WWV)
SRES B1/B2 (IPCC)
Adapting Mosaic (MA)
Great Transitions (GSG)
Fortress Worlds
Security First (GEO-3)
Barbarization (GSG)
SRES A2 (IPCC)
Order from Strength (MA)
Based on: van Asselt (1998), Morita & Robinson (2001)

12. Key rationales of Global Scenarios
Focus
Social.
Environ.
IPCC
Mill.Ass.
GEO-3
Prelude
‘Global‘
proactive B1
Big.Crisis
- reactive
Clust.Net
TechnoG A1
Order.f.S
Market, Security
Great.Es
‘Regional‘ B2
A.Mosaic
Sustain
Evol.Soc.
reactive
Global O.
Policy
Lett.Surp A2
Based on GECAFS scenario workshop (2005)

13. Global–Local level Integration
Option 1: Develop global and local scenarios in parallel / iteratively
Global-Level Scenarios
Option 2: First agree on a set of global scenarios, then develop local and regional scenarios. Revisit global scenarios
Regional-level Scenarios
Level of Detail
Local-level Scenarios