M INISTRY OF WATER AND ENERGY M ODELING E XPERIENCE N OV, 2012

P RESENTATION ON T HE M ODELING E XPERIENCE OF MOWE  Introduction  General concept and use of models  Experiences of Modeling in the MOWE  Capacity and Challenges  Way Forward

I NTRODUCTION 12 basins with 1.13M Sq Km A surface water resource of 122BM3 Ground water resource more than 35BM3 and also under study Challenges in terms of development, management optimization that needs reliable tools

GENERAL CONCEPT, TYPE AND USE OF MODELS General Concept Models in water resource management are tools that are used to inform decisions about water resources in quantity and quality, Environmental, and water management in Complex regional systems. Type of models Simulation and optimization models Hydrological and meteorological models Disaster management models Water quality models Design models

USE OF MODELS Estimate runoff from watersheds predict interactions between ground-water and surface water bodies used to study reservoir operation; to forecast floods and plan flood-control programs; to predict, embankment erosion, and dam breaks; and to plan for ecosystem restoration. for the real-time operation and management of water systems and for assessing water supply availability and reliability used for determining facility-size requirements for water storage and distribution systems predict changes in a river bed form and location, including bank erosion, scouring, changes in the hydraulic regime, and so on. used for morphological studies in small- and large-scale rivers of all kinds and in all settings, as well in reservoirs. Evaluate alternative water allocation scenario and assist in assessing the impact of intervention

EXPERIENCE OF MODELING WITHIN THE MINISTRY The Ministry of Water and Energy has been developing models for years as part of the Integrated Basin Development Master Plan Studies as well as other specific studies most of the models are developed by consultants and, some experiences using in house staffs Relevant directorates in water resources modeling activities are Hydrology and Water Quality, Basin Administration Directorate, Water Use Permit and Administration Directorate, Environmental Impact Assessment and Social Development Office, Energy ….. And Research Directorates

SOME MODELS THAT ARE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE MINISTRY SR. No. Types of Model used For water resource Planning Project / studyWater Resource Modeling (Water Balance, Water allocation and Use) 1Awash Surface Water Master Plan StudiesHEC-5(Simulation Model), WEAP, 2Omo – Integrated Development Master Plan StudiesHEC-5 3Baro - Integrated Development Master Plan StudiesHEC-5 Model -for Reservoirs Operation 4Abbay Basin Integrated Development Master Plan Studies-WATBAL(WBCOMP, WBPLOT, WBFAIL 5Integrated Development Master Plan StudiesRIBASIM-Hydrology 7Integrated Development Master Plan StudiesMIKEBASIN 8Integrated Development Master Plan Studies 9 WEAP 10Sedimentation ProjectSWAT 11Institutional Setup Studies of Abbay Basin ProjectMike 11 11Tana Beles Integrated Water Resources Dev.-WEAP -RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL- Watbal 12Irrigation and Drainage Project-WEAP 13Reservoir operation activity for majior dams inwater balance EXEL MODEL 14Rainfall runoff estimation for Flood management in and Awash bains HEC HMS, NAM module of MIKE II HEC RAS and Geo RAS 15Water Quality

MODELING CAPACITY AND CHALLENGES Modeling Capacity Modeling capacity within the Ministry is very low Some practical experiences in some directorates Need to establish modeling unit Some Modeling soft-wares and equipments available Challenges No adequate experienced staff There is high turnover of staffs that are trained in modeling Lack of Modeling tools and Equipments There is No take over of the activities undertaken by different studies

F UTURE D IRECTION concentrate on checking, updating and make use of existing models for operational purposes Integration among different directorates Capacity development, human and institutional Co-operate with different stakeholders, universities and institutes that are working in modeling

Practical Experiences Main Activities Reservoir Management Flood forecasting, monitoring and control Tools Forecasting using simple EXEL models Forecasting using models like HEC-HMS, MIKE II Monitoring near real time data

PREDICTION OF RESERVOIR WL USING SIMPLE EXEL MODELS

Rainfall forecast as upon 14 th of September 2012

Runoff forecast as upon 14 th of September 2012 Fogera Rivers (Gumara and Ribb): Peak flood is expected in the evening of 15 th and in the morning of 16 th September, 2012 (around midnight) Dembiya Rivers (Dirma and Megech): Peak flood is expected in the early morning of 16 September 2012 (around 3:00 AM) Fogera Rivers (Gumara and Ribb): Peak flood is expected in the evening of 15 th and in the morning of 16 th September, 2012 (around midnight) Dembiya Rivers (Dirma and Megech): Peak flood is expected in the early morning of 16 September 2012 (around 3:00 AM)

Runoff forecast as upon 14 th of September 2012, (Fogera floodplain)

T HANK YOU