“We can be absolutely certain only about things we do not understand.” PAF 101 Module 4, Lecture 7 “We can be absolutely certain only about things we do not understand.” -Eric Hoffer, the longshoreman philosopher of San Francisco

Class Agenda Continue Competition Debriefing from last class Module due on Wednesday!

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Take the “Orange Survey,” Improve Undergraduate Education @ SU “The survey is designed to help us better understand the experiences of our undergraduate students and the reasons that they persist at Syracuse University.” *You should have received an email with directions on how to take the survey.

Competition Points Winners Losers Group # Points 2 29 14 28 12 24 1 22 15 4 20 9 17 5 19 8 11 18 3 6 10 16 13 7 Winners Losers As of 11/09/2015

Daily Dose of Dale Groups 7 and 8 will present today Groups 9 and 10 will present on Wednesday

Dale Carnegie Principles Don't criticize, condemn or complain. Give honest and sincere appreciation. Arouse the other person an eager want. Become genuinely interested in other people. Remember that a man's name is to him the sweetest and most important sound in any language. Be a good listener. Encourage others to talk about themselves. Talk in the terms of the other man’s interest. Make the other person feel important and do it sincerely. Avoid arguments. Never tell someone they are wrong If you're wrong, admit it quickly and emphatically. Begin in a friendly way. Start with questions the other person will answer yes to. Let the other person do the talking. Let the other person feel the idea is his/hers. Try honestly to see things from the other person's point of view. Sympathize with the other person. Appeal to noble motives. Dramatize your ideas. Throw down a challenge. Begin with praise and honest appreciation. Call attention to other people's mistakes indirectly. Talk about your own mistakes first. Ask questions instead of giving direct orders. Let the other person save face. Praise every improvement. Give them a fine reputation to live up to Encourage them by making their faults seem easy to correct. Make the other person happy about doing what you suggest.

Module 4 Debriefing Instructions We will call two representatives from your group It is possible for your group to be called on more than once Confer with your groups quietly so that you don’t give away the answers to other groups. You will be able to jump (when called on) in if the groups can’t find the problem

Module 4 Competition Problem: The dropout rate at Syracuse University, in Syracuse, New York, is too high. Proposed Policy: Increase all scholarship assistance to sophomores with above a 3.0 GPA by $2,000.

Data School Year First Year Drop Out Rate 2012-2013 7.6% 2013-2014 8.3% 2014-2015 9.9% 2015-2016e 9.1% Source: Office of Institutional Research and Assessment

Data School Year Baseline 2016-2017 9.9% 2017-2018 10.5% 2018-2019 10.7% From Graph in class on Friday

Exercise 8.5A (Chart) After carefully reading the discussion in Chapter 8, indicate your three benchmarks in the spaces provided below that include the years chosen in 8.3 and the benchmark. Year Baseline Benchmark 2016-2017 9.9% 7.5% 2017-2018 10.6% Drop out rate of 5.5% or less 2018-2019 10.7% 0%

Exercise 8.5A (Chart) After carefully reading the discussion in Chapter 8, indicate your three benchmarks in the spaces provided below that include the years chosen in 8.3 and the benchmark. Row 1: Benchmark may be too high/unrealistic. Year Baseline Benchmark 2016-2017 9.9% 7.5% 2017-2018 10.6% Drop out rate of 5.5% or less 2018-2019 10.7% 0% Row 2: Benchmark should be a specific number, not a phrase. Row 2: Baseline should be 10.5%. See Table. Row 3: Unrealistic benchmark. Can never fully eradicate a problem like dropouts.

Exercise 8.5B (Justification) Write a justification indicating why you set the benchmarks quoting at least two justifications from Chapter 8 here: In 2016-2017, the dropout rate will be reduced to 7.5% because we can expect a fast change. The following year, the rate will decrease to 5.5% or less because after two years, everyone will know about the policy and will improve their grades, so more people will be able to afford to stay in school and less will drop out. By 2018-2019, the problem will be eliminated because no one will need to drop out.

Exercise 8.5B (Justification) Write a justification indicating why you set the benchmarks quoting at least two justifications from Chapter 8 here: In 2016-2017, the dropout rate will be reduced to 7.5% because we can expect a fast change. The following year, the rate will decrease to 5.5% or less because after two years, everyone will know about the policy and will improve their grades, so more people will be able to afford to stay in school and less will drop out. By 2018-2019, the problem will be eliminated because no one will need to drop out. *Quote missing from Chapter 8 Third Benchmark - Justification is incorrect. Can never fully eradicate a problem like dropouts. Better: The rate will be significantly lower by the third year because scholarship assistance will be widespread and fewer students will be unable to afford to stay in school. Second Benchmark - Justification is slightly unrealistic and benchmark is not an exact number, but otherwise takes into account other societal factors contributing to the problem like the cost of tuition, which is one of the 8.5 guidelines. First Benchmark - Poor justification. Better: unrealistic based on the historical baseline data, would not have such a significant decline in such a short period of time.

Exercise 8.6 A Identify a player whom you would present an oral briefing to using the benchmark you developed for Exercise 8.5. List the player’s name, organization and title below. List the player’s name and organization here: Professor Coplin, PAF 101 List the player’s title here: Teacher of PAF 101 Briefly discuss why you choose this player to receive the memo here: He has influence over undergraduate students in his class.

Exercise 8.6 A Identify a player whom you would present an oral briefing to using the benchmark you developed for Exercise 8.5. List the player’s name, organization and title below. List the player’s name and organization here: Professor Coplin, PAF 101 List the player’s title here: Teacher of PAF 101 Briefly discuss why you choose this player to receive the memo here: He has influence over undergraduate students in his class. Problem 1: Incorrect Player. Should be: Kent Syverud, Syracuse University Problem 2: Title, therefore, should be Chancellor of Syracuse University Problem 3: A reason for Syverud would be that he has direct impact on the decisions made by the Board of Trustees who are responsible for the fiscal policies at Syracuse University.

Exercise 8.6 B Place a graph that shows the historical pattern, baseline, and benchmark forecasts below. Follow the instructions in the book to create a trend line graph.

Exercise 8.6 B Place a graph that shows the historical pattern, baseline, and benchmark forecasts below. Follow the instructions in the book to create a trend line graph. Incorrect Title: With correct data: Historical, Baseline and Benchmark Graph for First Year Drop Out Rates at Syracuse University: 2018-2019f. Line segments need to vary in length, not all solid lines Cannot have data point at zero because problem cannot be eliminated No values provided above data points Y axis not labeled correctly: First Year Drop Out Rate (%) OR Percent of First Year Dropouts Do not put grid lines on graph - Need source Make graph in Times New Roman 12 Need Legend and data labels Missing indication of which years are forecasted Years not academic: change axis values (i.e. 2017 should be 2016-2017f) First data point is incorrect X axis should say Academic Years

Exercise 8.6 C C. In no more than 3 sentences, describe the improvement as specifically as possible that is forecasted for the policy as expressed in the above graph. Place your response here: If the policy reaches its benchmarks the drop out rate would be lower than if the policy was not implemented.

Exercise 8.6 C C. In no more than 3 sentences, describe the improvement as specifically as possible that is forecasted for the policy as expressed in the above graph. Place your response here: If the policy reaches its benchmarks the drop out rate would be lower than if the policy was not implemented. Correct but not specific enough. Does not include comparison between baseline forecast and policy forecast. Correct comparison: “The dropout rate between baseline forecast for 2017 and the policy forecast for 2016-2017 is lower by 2.4%.” A CORRECT VERSION OF 8.6C (USING THE GRAPH DATA, ALTHOUGH INCOREECT) IS LOCATED ON THE NEXT SLIDE

What Exercise 8.6 C SHOULD look like… C. In no more than 3 sentences, describe the improvement as specifically as possible that is forecasted for the policy as expressed in the above graph. Place your response here: In 2016-2017, the baseline percentage of dropouts is 9.9% while the benchmark percentage is 7.5%. This is a difference between the percentages is 2.4%, which is small but still significant. The difference between the baseline forecast and the benchmark for the school year 2017-2018 is 5.0%, which shows a steady decrease in the percent of students dropping out of school after the implementation of the policy. In the last year 2018-2019, the baseline is 10.7% fewer dropouts.

Helpful Hints Benchmarks can only be set for the years AFTER the policy is implemented. Label forecasted and estimated data points! Use the Maxwell Manual and follow directions on how to do a graph, but could vary on the computer software you are using. Be realistic with your benchmarks. Just because a policy is implemented does not mean a societal problem will be completely eliminated. Put a title on data charts (Ex. 8.1)

For next class… Module 4 is due Wednesday! Groups 9 and 10 present Dale Carnegie