Changing Places The White British Response to ethnic change Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College web: sneps.net

Key Messages Ethnic Change has moved ahead of White British ability to adapt Result is salience of immigration issue and rise of BNP, then UKIP Demography and culture – speed of the shift – matters: economic, political and media factors much less so

Policy Two key policy responses: 1.Avoid exacerbating speed of local ethnic shifts in areas that have not experienced change 2.Stress a new narrative of national identity when speaking to the ethnic majority which aims at reassurance of continuity rather than excitement about transformation and change

White British Response to Ethnic Change ‘Fight’ (Voice) ‘Flight’ (Exit) Join (Accommodation)

Source: Ipsos MORI, 'Attitudes to Immigration' (forthcoming). Issues Index question: “What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?”. Issues Index base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home. Home Office statistics based on ‘Year ending’.

US: Response to Catholic/Jewish Growth,

Scottish Response to Catholic Growth, 1920s-50s 1923: the Church of Scotland's Church and Nation committee issues report entitled The Menace of the Irish Race to our Scottish Nationality 1932: 'We are losing some of the best of our race stock by migration and their place is being taken by those whom whatever their merits, are not Scottish' - novelist John Buchan at Parliament in November : the Church of Scotland's Church and Nation committee condemns Irish Catholics for displacing the 'native Scots population' from industrial Scotland and derided them as a 'compact community largely of alien origin' (Devine 2008) England: rise in issue salience in 1950s-60s, decline 1970s-90s

Source: Plymouth Elections Centre

English Ethnic Nationalism Individualism Cultural Liberalism Integration/ Assimilation/ Boundary Shift Immigration and Minority Growth

Desire to reduce migration, by class and proportion of renters, among ward residents, white British only Source: Home Office Citizenship Survey (Office for National Statistics and Home Office 2010, 2011)

Desire to reduce migration, by class and proportion of minorities in ward, white British only

Source: Home Office Citizenship Survey (Office for National Statistics and Home Office 2010, 2011)

Source: Harris 2012

White Flight?

Source: Catney, G ‘Has neighbourhood ethnic segregation decreased?’ (CoDE/JRF/ESRC/U Manchester)

White Flight?: Yougov-ESRC-BBK Survey, August 2013 Moved To Whiter Ward past 10 yrs Moved To More Diverse Ward past 10 yrsSample Not White British53%47%47 White British62%38%239 Total60%40%286

Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey) To WhiterTo Diverse Sample very comfortable61%39%83 fairly comfortable67%33%33 neither comfortable n57%43%46 fairly uncomfortable64%36%11 very uncomfortable76%24%25 don't know58%42%24 Total63%37%222

So contact effect is real, but… Higher local changes mean more opposition Higher local levels mean less opposition Higher local levels, less opposition, but higher metro/Local Authority levels more opposition Contact and Habituation of native white population to the local presence of minorities, even if segregated/foreign-born/Muslim, seems key

Should we push integration? Contact produces more positive attitudes among majority, BUT 1.‘Halo’ effect: as zone of contact moves out, zone of threat moves out 2.Integration does not affect white opinion: Whether minorities UK-born, English- speaking, social housing, employed, residentially integrated, matters little. Mixed, Muslim, Caribbean – sporadic effects

Source: ONS (Census) 2011

UKIP: national-level phenomenon Driven by English nationalism Live in whiter-than-average areas “Left Behind?”: Over-55s; Under-55s without degrees NOT losers: above average employment, home ownership, average income, political consciousness Mean UKIPper: think successful contractor or non- degree holding manager, not deskilled unemployed worker Follow national news and politics Ex-Tory more than ex-Lib Dem, more than ex-Labour

UKIP will split the Right, damage Tories

Can Reduce Opposition Ideologically North America is not less concerned due to space or ‘nation of immigrants’ belief Due to taboo attached to discussion of immigration, ‘political correctness’ in all areas except Quebec Delegitimation of ‘nativism’ in 1960s, did not occur in Europe to same degree Unlikely to work in UK/Europe

Immigration and Immigration Opinion in the US & Canada since 1965 Source: Wilkes, Guppy & Farris 2007

Conclusion Minority change associated with more English ethnic nationalism Minority levels mean less opposition locally, but not nationally Local contact with and habituation to minorities, rather than cultural integration, reduces opposition to immigration Assimilation has historically reduced ethnic nationalism at the national level

Policy Options Housebuilding: garden cities, self-build, dispersed development Refugee and council tenant dispersal should aim at transient areas with some experience of diversity Retain White British where possible in diverse areas Managed migration, but also realism during a period of native-born ethnic change

A new national identity Different message to majority and minorities For minorities, OK to talk about ever-rising diversity within an umbrella of Britishness For majorities, must stress decline of diversity through assimilation, and maintenance of ethnic majority myths, memories, traditions Move from singular national identity to multiple national identities

New Research Needed Why do white liberals head for same white areas as white conservatives? Do White British perceive the status of certain schools and neighbourhoods differently from minorities? Do White British and minorities ‘see’ Britishness and Englishness differently, i.e. are different sets of symbols salient for White British and minorities

Changing Places The White British Response to ethnic change Eric Kaufmann, Birkbeck College web: sneps.net