THE ART AND SCIENCE OF MAKING A COMMUNITY RESILIENT TO EARTHQUAKES Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

MAKING OUR FUTURE BETTER THAN OUR PAST UNDER- STAND IDENT- IFY HEAR PERSON- ALIZE ACT PERIOD OF INTEGRATION WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY 2012 PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION NOW

COMMUNITIES ARE AT RISK FROM FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS DROUGHTS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS LANDSLIDES WILDFIRES

A COMMUNITY’S BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE MUST BE RESILIENT TO GROUND SHAKING AND GROUND FAILURE

HAZARDSHAZARDS THE RISK TO A COMMUNITY’S BUILT ENVIRONMENT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO ITS VULNERABILITIES EXPOSUREEXPOSURE VULNERABILITIESVULNERABILITIES LOCATIONLOCATION RISKRISK

WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT A CITY AND ITS BUILT ENVIRONMENT (B.E.) CITIES AND MEGACITIES EXIST BY GEOLOGIC, HYDROLOGIC, AND ATMOSPHERIC CONSENT AND THE B.E.’s VULNER- ABILITIES

INADEQUATE BUILDING CODES EARTHQUAKES INADEQUATE LIFELINE STANDARDS SITING IN LOCATIONS PRONE TO SURFACE FAULTING, LAND- SLIDES, & LIQUEFACTION IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN INADEQUATE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS SITING ON SOFT SOILS INADEQUATE ANCHORAGE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF VULNER- ABILITIES “DISASTER LABORATORIES”

INJURIES AND DEATHS CONSEQUENCES OF COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES DAMAGE AND COLLAPSE LOSS OF FUNCTION ECONOMIC LOSS RISKRISK

EVERY COMMUNITY CAN MAKE ITS FUTURE BETTER THAN ITS PAST GOAL 1: LEARN FROM THE PAST GOAL 2: REDUCE COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES THAT INCREASE RISK FOR PEOPLE, PROPERTY, AND INFRASTRUCTURE

PAST DISASTERS PROVIDE A REALITY CHECK Source: Munich Re and many past earthquakes

ALL VULNERABILITIES CAN BE FIXED

ALL VULNERABILITIES ARE FIXABLE ALL VULNERABILITIES ARE FIXABLE

ALL VULNERABILITIES ARE FIXABLE

A UTILITY CORRIDOR IS VULNERABLE TO LOSS OF FUNCTION WHEN ROUTED THROUGH SOILS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO LIQUEFACTION.

IMPORTANT QUESTIONS WHAT LEVEL OF CASUALTIES WILL OCCUR IN A FUTURE EARTHQUAKE IF THE VULNERABILITIES IN THE B.E. ARE NOT FIXED? WHAT LEVEL OF ECONOMIC LOSSES WILL OCCUR IN A FUTURE EARTHQUAKE IF THE VULNER- ABILITIES IN THE B.E. ARE NOT FIXED?

INADEQUATE SEISMIC DESIGN PROVISIONS (I.E., BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE STANDARDS ) MEAN 1) INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING 2) COLLAPSE OF BUILDINGS AND LOSS OF FUNCTION OF LIFELINES

NOTABLE PAST DISASTERS SAN FRANCISCO 1906 EARTHQUAKE & FIRE 3,000 CASUALTIES $ 524 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ 180 M INSURED LOSS

NOTABLE PAST DISASTERS TOKYO 1923 EARTHQUAKE & FIRE 142,807 CASUALTIES $ 2,800 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ 590 M INSURED LOSS

NOTABLE PAST DISASTERS MANAGUA 1972 EARTHQUAKE 11,000 CASUALTIES $ 800 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ 100 M INSURED LOSS

PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS TANGSHAN 1976 EARTHQUAKE 240,000 + CASUALTIES $ 5,600 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ ---0 M INSURED LOSS

PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS MEXICO CITY 1985 EARTHQUAKE 9,500 CASUALTIES $ 4,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ 275 M INSURED LOSS

PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS LOMA PRIETA (SAN FRANCISCO) 1989 EARTHQUAKE 61 CASUALTIES $ 5,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ 1,000 M INSURED LOSS

PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA 1994 EARTHQUAKE 61 CASUALTIES $ 44,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ 15,300 M INSURED LOSS

PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS KOBE, JAPAN 1995 EARTHQUAKE 6,400 CASUALTIES $ 100,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ 3,000 M INSURED LOSS

PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS IZMET, TURKEY 1999 EARTHQUAKE 17,200 CASUALTIES $ 12,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ 600 M INSURED LOSS

PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS BAM, IRAN 2003 EARTHQUAKE 40,000 CASUALTIES $ ?000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ --00 M INSURED LOSS

2003 Bam, Iran Earthquake

PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS BANDA ACHE, INDONESIA 2004 EARTHQUAKE & TSUNAMI 240,000 CASUALTIES $ 4,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ ?--00 M INSURED LOSS

2004 BANDA ACHE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI

PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS SICHUAN PROVINCE, CHINA 2008 EARTHQUAKE 80,000 CASUALTIES $ 13,300 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES) $ --00 M INSURED LOSS

SICHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE INADEQUATE BUILDING CODE

TWENTY-ONE DAYS LATER 45,690,000 people were affected by the disaster.

HAITI EARTHQUAKE: INADEQUATE BUILDING CODE; JANUARY 12, 2010

TSUNAMI: JAPAN MARCH 12, 2011