National Security Policy in the Clinton Administration

American National Security 2 Setting Soviet Union dissolved Soviet Union dissolved –Central organizing threat for five decades is gone –Russia is weak politically & economically Strong nuclear power Strong nuclear power –“ loose nukes ” threat Regional destabilization & breakup Regional destabilization & breakup

American National Security 3 Setting “World Order” Structure Unclear “World Order” Structure Unclear –Polarity (constellation of great powers) Bipolar ( ) Bipolar ( ) Multipolar ( ) Multipolar ( ) Unipolar (1992-?) Unipolar (1992-?) How might system polarity affect national security policy? How might system polarity affect national security policy? –Democracy & Capitalism as norm End of competition of social systems End of competition of social systems “ democratic peace ” theory [major war impossible] “ democratic peace ” theory [major war impossible] –Nuclear Weapons as war deterrents Nuclear weapons make major war impossible Nuclear weapons make major war impossible

American National Security 4 Setting US & European publics turn to domestic focus US & European publics turn to domestic focus –Bush foreign policy triumphs fail to win electorate –Collapse of WP/E. European communism –Collapse of USSR –Gulf War Clinton Elected (it ’ s the economy, stupid!) Clinton Elected (it ’ s the economy, stupid!)

American National Security 5 Policy Debates Academics, policy wonks, insiders, politicians Academics, policy wonks, insiders, politicians 4 Options 4 Options –Isolationism –Liberal internationalism (Carter) –Primacy (Realist 1) –Selective Engagement (Realist 2) A strategy of no strategy or vision A strategy of no strategy or vision Watch & see Watch & see

American National Security 6 Clinton National Security Orientation US must play a role in the world commensurate with its US must play a role in the world commensurate with itspower Economic growth is essential Economic growth is essential –Tied to global economic growth Cold-War “orphan” international problems need attention Cold-War “orphan” international problems need attention –Environment –Population growth –Political repression International institutions should be engaged in pursuit of International institutions should be engaged in pursuit of US goals –UN –World Bank

American National Security 7 Implementation: Intervention l Humanitarian intervention & Nation Building for Regional Stability Humanitarian intervention & Nation Building for Regional Stability Somalia Somalia –Change from humanitarian mission to nation building → US Deaths –UN pulls out in 1995 → Somalia syndrome 1994 Rwanda 1994 Rwanda –1 million deaths –No UN intervention, Somalia syndrome Haiti Haiti – : turmoil following coup against Aristide → thousands of refugees at sea → US problem –1994 US sends 20,000 troops to end turmoil –US pulls out in 1999

American National Security 8 Implementation: Intervention ll Collective Security –NATO Collective Security –NATO War in Europe is dangerous to US national security interests War in Europe is dangerous to US national security interests Yugoslavia Yugoslavia –Croatia & Slovenia (1991) –Bosnia –Dayton Peace Accords( 1995) –Kosovo

American National Security 9 Yugoslavia

Security 10 Terrorism WTC l 1993 [truck bomb] WTC l 1993 [truck bomb] –6 killed –>1000 injured Khobar Towers 1997 [truck bomb] Khobar Towers 1997 [truck bomb] –19 servicemen killed, 500 Americans & Saudis injured Embassies 1998 [truck bomb] Embassies 1998 [truck bomb] –Tanzania 11 dead 11 dead –Kenya –4000 wounded

American National Security 11 Clinton Response to Terror Attacks Cruise-missile strikes on Afghanistan & Sudan Cruise-missile strikes on Afghanistan & Sudan –Was this adequate? –Why nothing more forceful? Somalia & Haiti-syndrome Somalia & Haiti-syndrome “ Monica ” affair “ Monica ” affair What was the message to AI Quaeda? What was the message to AI Quaeda?

American National Security 12 Africa back

American National Security 13 Nuclear Proliferation Russia & “Loose Nukes” Russia & “Loose Nukes” North Korea North Korea