Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: Space Research Building (North Campus) Winter 2015 February 5, 2015

Class Information and News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15 –Record of course Rood’s Class MediaWiki SiteClass MediaWiki Site – A tumbler site to help me remember –

Resources and Recommended Reading Rood’s Series on Bumps and WigglesRood’s Series on Bumps and Wiggles Past, Present and Future of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Srokosz et al., BAMS, 2012Past, Present and Future of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Srokosz et al., BAMS, 2012

Outline: Class 9, Winter 2015 Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean “Internal” variability (Redux) –Analysis How weather and climate is organized –Physical geography –Rotation of Earth Climate variability and change

Energy doesn’t just come and go The atmosphere and ocean are fluids. The horizontal distribution of energy, causes these fluids to move. That is, weather and ocean currents.

From Building the Radiative Balance Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. SURFACE 2) Then it is redistributed by the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, life. Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE CLOUD RS 1) The absorbed solar energy is converted to terrestrial thermal energy.

Consider the Distribution of Energy Latitudinal dependence of heating and cooling SURFACE ATMOSPHERE CLOUD Equator (On average heating) North Pole (Cooling) South Pole (Cooling) Because of tilt of Earth, Solar Radiation is absorbed preferentially at the Equator (low latitudes). Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space After the redistribution of energy, the emission of infrared radiation from the Earth is ~ equal from all latitudes.

Transfer of heat north and south is an important element of the climate at the Earth’s surface. Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE CLOUD heat is moved to poles cool is moved towards equator This is a transfer. Both ocean and atmosphere are important This predisposition for parts of the globe to be warm and parts of the globe to be cold means that measuring global warming is difficult. Some parts of the world could, in fact, get cooler because this warm and cool pattern could be changed. What is a scenario for record cold temperatures in northern Mexico?

Transport of heat poleward by atmosphere and oceans This is an important part of the climate system. One could stand back far enough in space, average over time, and perhaps average this away. This is, however, weather... and weather is how we feel the climate day to day –It will change because we are changing the distribution of heating and increasing the energy in the system.

Internal Variability

Sources of internal variability There is “natural” variability. –Solar variability –Volcanic activity –Internal “dynamics” Atmosphere - Weather Ocean Atmosphere-ocean interactions Atmosphere-ocean-land-ice interactions “Natural” does not mean that these modes of variability remain constant as the climate changes. Separation of “natural” and “human-caused.”

Some Aspects of Climate Variability One of the ways to think about climate variability is to think about persistent patterns of weather –Rainy periods Floods –Dry periods Droughts During these times the weather for a region does not appear random – it perhaps appears relentless

An example of variability: Seasons Temperature Winter Summer Cold Warm Rain comes in fronts Rain comes in thunderstorms Messy Forced variability responding to solar heating

Wave Motion and Climate

Year-to-Year Changes in Winter Temperatures Differences Relative to Average Late 1970s From Jim Hurrell

Modes of Climate Variability Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Niño – La NiñaEl Niño – La Niña What is El Niño –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

What is short-term and long-term? 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years ENERGY SECURITY ECONOMY CLIMATE CHANGE Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime,... LONG SHORT There are short-term issues important to climate change. Election time scales

Time Scales of Variability 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years El Niño / La Niña Arctic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation LONG SHORT

Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: El-Niño

Changes during El Niño

Some good El Niño Information NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Niño / La NiñaNOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Niño / La Niña NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Niño

GISS Temperature El Niño

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies El Niño / La Niña Signal

Modes of Climate Variability Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Niño – La NiñaEl Niño – La Niña What is El Niño –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

North Atlantic Oscillation Positive Phase U.S. East, Mild and Wet Europe North, Warm and Wet Canada North & Greenland, Cold and Dry Negative Phase U.S. East, Cold Air Outbreaks, Snow (dry) Europe North, Cold; South, Wet Greenland, Warm

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies Arctic Oscillation Signal

Modes of Climate Variability Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Niño – La NiñaEl Niño – La Niña What is El Niño –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation operate regularly lasting years, and does southern California experience droughts during that period? The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is one of several “oscillations” that are important to weather and climate. Some attributes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Basics Better version of figure from JISAO Colors: Sea Surface Temperature difference from long term average. Arrows: Stress on the ocean surface caused by winds Warm here Cool here

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies Pacific Decadal Oscillation Signal

Some information on Pacific Decadal Oscillation Joint Institute for Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO):JISAO –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation Climate Prediction Center (CPC):CPC –90 Day Outlook Summary90 Day Outlook Summary –Weather and Climate LinkageWeather and Climate Linkage National Climatic Data Center (NCDC):NCDC –Decadal OscillationsDecadal Oscillations Review Paper from Rood Class References –Mantua and Hare (2002) J of OceanographyMantua and Hare (2002) J of Oceanography

How Weather is Organized

Projected Global Temperature Trends: temperatures relative to Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001 Heat Capacity Heat Transport Land

Projected Global Temperature Trends: temperatures relative to Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001 Heat Capacity Heat Transport Ocean

Atmosphere

Hurricanes and heat: Sea Surface Temperature

Weather Moves Heat from Tropics to the Poles HURRICANES

Mid-latitude cyclones & Heat

Projected Global Temperature Trends: temperatures relative to Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming). IPCC 2001

Ocean

Ocean Surface Currents (From Steven Dutch, U Wisconsin, Green Bay)Steven Dutch Good Material at National Earth Science Teachers AssociationNational Earth Science Teachers Association

The Thermohaline Circulation (THC) (Global, organized circulation in the ocean) (The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean) Where there is localized exchange of water between the surface and the deep ocean (convection) Warm, surface currents. Cold, bottom currents. Green shading, high salt Blue shading, low salt

In Class / Groups / Discussion Thermohaline Circulation – Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation In groups discuss Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation / Gulf Stream –How does it affect climate? –How does variability affect climate? Consider: –Temperature, Ice Melting, Wind, Saltiness,

Climate variability and change

Time Scales of Variability 25 years 50 years75 years100 years0 years El Niño / La Niña Arctic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation LONG SHORT

January 2011 Temperature Anomalies El Niño / La Niña Signal

GISS Temperature El Niño

Roles of Uncertainty / Variability at Different Times Hawkins and Sutton, 2009 Hawkins and Sutton, 2009

Summary: Class 9, Winter 2015 Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean –Greenhouse gases change energy balance –Atmosphere and oceans transport energy “Internal” variability (Redux) –Modes of internal variability organize weather in spatial and temporal patterns

Summary: Class 9, Winter 2015 How weather and climate is organized –Rotation of Earth –Location of land-water –Tilt of axis –Thermal characteristics Climate variability and change –Climate change occurs on a background of variability. –We can diagnose the variability, it is more difficult to predict.

Outline: Class 9, Winter 2015 Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean “Internal” variability (Redux) –Analysis How weather and climate is organized –Physical geography –Rotation of Earth Climate variability and change

Projects Abrupt climate change Consequences of rapid change in the Arctic Analysis of the warming “hiatus”