1. 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell:
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
Winter 2016
February 4, 2016
Organization of Earth’s Climate: The role of weather in climate and climate change: transporting energy and water, how humans experience climate; Why is weather organized the way it is organized: physical geography, rotation of planet, role in framing climate response and human impacts

2. Class Information and News
Ctools site: CLIMATE_480_001_W16
Record of course
Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site
A tumbler site to help me remember

3. Resources and Recommended Reading
Rood’s Series on Bumps and Wiggles
Past, Present and Future of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Srokosz et al., BAMS, 2012
Organization of Earth’s Climate: The role of weather in climate and climate change: transporting energy and water, how humans experience climate; Why is weather organized the way it is organized: physical geography, rotation of planet, role in framing climate response and human impacts

4. Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean
Outline: Class 8, Winter 2016
Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean
“Internal” variability (Redux)
Analysis
How weather and climate is organized
Physical geography
Rotation of Earth
Climate variability and change
Organization of Earth’s Climate: The role of weather in climate and climate change: transporting energy and water, how humans experience climate; Why is weather organized the way it is organized: physical geography, rotation of planet, role in framing climate response and human impacts

5. Energy doesn’t just come and go
The atmosphere and ocean are fluids. The horizontal distribution of energy, causes these fluids to move. That is, weather and ocean currents.

6. From Building the Radiative Balance
Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. RS
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
1) The absorbed solar energy is converted to terrestrial thermal energy.
2) Then it is redistributed by the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, life.
CLOUD
ATMOSPHERE
SURFACE

7. Consider the Distribution of Energy
Latitudinal dependence of heating and cooling
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
After the redistribution of energy, the emission of infrared radiation from the Earth is ~ equal from all latitudes.
CLOUD
ATMOSPHERE
Because of tilt of Earth, Solar Radiation is absorbed preferentially at the Equator (low latitudes).
SURFACE
South Pole
(Cooling)
Equator
(On average heating)
North Pole
(Cooling)

8. Transfer of heat north and south is an important element of the climate at the Earth’s surface.
Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc.
Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space
This predisposition for parts of the globe to be warm and parts of the globe to be cold means that measuring global warming is difficult. Some parts of the world could, in fact, get cooler because this warm and cool pattern could be changed.
What is a scenario for record cold temperatures in northern Mexico?
CLOUD
ATMOSPHERE
heat is moved to poles
cool is moved towards equator
cool is moved towards equator
SURFACE
This is a transfer. Both ocean and atmosphere are important

9. Transport of heat poleward by atmosphere and oceans
This is an important part of the climate system.
One could stand back far enough in space, average over time, and perhaps average this away.
This is, however, weather ... and weather is how we feel the climate day to day
It will change because we are changing the distribution of heating and increasing the energy in the system.

10. Internal Variability

11. Sources of internal variability
There is “natural” variability.
Solar variability
Volcanic activity
Internal “dynamics”
Atmosphere - Weather
Ocean
Atmosphere-ocean interactions
Atmosphere-ocean-land-ice interactions
“Natural” does not mean that these modes of variability remain constant as the climate changes. Separation of “natural” and “human-caused.”

12. Some Aspects of Climate Variability
One of the ways to think about climate variability is to think about persistent patterns of weather
Rainy periods
Floods
Dry periods
Droughts
During these times the weather for a region does not appear random – it perhaps appears relentless

13. An example of variability: Seasons
Cold
Warm
Cold
Temperature
Messy
Messy
Winter
Summer
Winter
More than hot and cold, weather type is different. The transitional seasons are messy, sort of bouncing back and first.
This is “forced” variability due to the seasonal cycle of the Sun.
Rain comes in fronts
Rain comes in thunderstorms
Forced variability responding to solar heating

14. Wave Motion and Climate

15. Year-to-Year Changes in Winter Temperatures
Differences Relative to Average
Late 1970s
From Jim Hurrell

16. Modes of Climate Variability
Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices
There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes.
El Niño – La Niña
What is El Niño
North Atlantic Oscillation
Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
Annular Mode
Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
Pacific Decadal Oscillation

17. What is short-term and long-term?
Pose that time scales for addressing climate change as a society are best defined by human dimensions. Length of infrastructure investment, accumulation of wealth over a lifetime, ...
LONG
SHORT
ENERGY SECURITY
Election time scales
CLIMATE CHANGE
ECONOMY
There are short-term issues important to climate change.
0 years
25 years
50 years
75 years
100 years

18. Time Scales of Variability
LONG
SHORT
Pacific Decadal
Oscillation
Arctic Oscillation
0 years
25 years
50 years
75 years
100 years
El Niño / La Niña

19. Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: El-Niño

20. Changes during El Niño

21. Some good El Niño Information
NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Niño / La Niña
NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Niño

22. GISS Temperature 2002
El Niño

23. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
El Niño / La Niña
Signal

24. Modes of Climate Variability
Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices
There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes.
El Niño – La Niña
What is El Niño
North Atlantic Oscillation
Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
Annular Mode
Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
Pacific Decadal Oscillation

25. North Atlantic Oscillation
Positive Phase
U.S. East, Mild and Wet
Europe North, Warm and Wet
Canada North & Greenland, Cold and Dry
Negative Phase
U.S. East, Cold Air Outbreaks, Snow (dry)
Europe North, Cold; South, Wet
Greenland, Warm

26. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
Arctic Oscillation
Signal

27. Modes of Climate Variability
Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices
There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes.
El Niño – La Niña
What is El Niño
North Atlantic Oscillation
Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
Annular Mode
Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
Pacific Decadal Oscillation

28. Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation operate regularly lasting years, and does southern California experience droughts during that period?
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is one of several “oscillations” that are important to weather and climate.
Some attributes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

29. Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Basics
Colors: Sea Surface Temperature difference from long term average.
Arrows: Stress on the ocean surface caused by winds
Cool here
Warm here
Better version of figure from JISAO

30. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Signal

31. Some information on Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Joint Institute for Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO):
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Climate Prediction Center (CPC):
90 Day Outlook Summary
Weather and Climate Linkage
National Climatic Data Center (NCDC):
Decadal Oscillations
Review Paper from Rood Class References
Mantua and Hare (2002) J of Oceanography

32. How Weather is Organized

33. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
Heat Capacity
Heat Transport
Land
Polar amplification:
Why are North (Arctic) and South (Antarctic) different?
Physical geography. Ocean can transport heat to the pole. Atmosphere can transport heat to pole.
Antarctic continent blocks ocean, and topography, order 2 km, blocks atmosphere. Note “band” around Antarctica.
temperatures relative to
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC 2001

34. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
Heat Capacity
Heat Transport
Ocean
Polar amplification:
Why are North (Arctic) and South (Antarctic) different?
Physical geography. Ocean can transport heat to the pole. Atmosphere can transport heat to pole.
Antarctic continent blocks ocean, and topography, order 2 km, blocks atmosphere. Note “band” around Antarctica.
temperatures relative to
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC 2001

35. Atmosphere

36. Hurricanes and heat: Sea Surface Temperature

37. Weather Moves Heat from Tropics to the Poles
HURRICANES

38. Mid-latitude cyclones & Heat

39. Projected Global Temperature Trends: 2100
temperatures relative to
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Storyline B2 (middle of the road warming).
IPCC 2001

40. Ocean

41. Ocean Surface Currents (From Steven Dutch, U Wisconsin, Green Bay)
Good Material at National Earth Science Teachers Association

42. The Thermohaline Circulation (THC) (Global, organized circulation in the ocean) (The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean)
Blue shading, low salt
Green shading, high salt
Where there is localized exchange of water between the surface and the deep ocean (convection)
Warm, surface currents.
Cold, bottom currents.

43. In Class / Groups / Discussion
Thermohaline Circulation
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
In groups discuss Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation / Gulf Stream
How does it affect climate?
How does variability affect climate?
Consider:
Temperature, Ice Melting, Wind, Saltiness,

44. Climate variability and change

45. Time Scales of Variability
LONG
SHORT
Pacific Decadal
Oscillation
Arctic Oscillation
0 years
25 years
50 years
75 years
100 years
El Niño / La Niña

46. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
El Niño / La Niña
Signal

47. GISS Temperature 2002
El Niño

48. Roles of Uncertainty / Variability at Different Times Hawkins and Sutton, 2009

49. Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean
Summary: Class 8, Winter 2016
Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean
Greenhouse gases change energy balance
Atmosphere and oceans transport energy
“Internal” variability (Redux)
Modes of internal variability organize weather in spatial and temporal patterns
Organization of Earth’s Climate: The role of weather in climate and climate change: transporting energy and water, how humans experience climate; Why is weather organized the way it is organized: physical geography, rotation of planet, role in framing climate response and human impacts

50. Summary: Class 8, Winter 2016 How weather and climate is organized
Rotation of Earth
Location of land-water
Tilt of axis
Thermal characteristics
Climate variability and change
Climate change occurs on a background of variability.
We can diagnose the variability, it is more difficult to predict.
Organization of Earth’s Climate: The role of weather in climate and climate change: transporting energy and water, how humans experience climate; Why is weather organized the way it is organized: physical geography, rotation of planet, role in framing climate response and human impacts

51. Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean
Outline: Class 8, Winter 2016
Distribution of energy by atmosphere and ocean
“Internal” variability (Redux)
Analysis
How weather and climate is organized
Physical geography
Rotation of Earth
Climate variability and change
Organization of Earth’s Climate: The role of weather in climate and climate change: transporting energy and water, how humans experience climate; Why is weather organized the way it is organized: physical geography, rotation of planet, role in framing climate response and human impacts

52. Projects
Abrupt climate change
Consequences of rapid change in the Arctic
Analysis of the warming “hiatus”