1. Dynamic Climate An overview of Climate Oscillations

2. WHAT is a Climate Oscillation? Climates are long-term weather patterns. Climates are a product of –Latitude, –Altitude, –Proximity to Water, –Location and distribution of nearby Highlands, and –Nearby Ocean Currents –Global Wind Patterns. Which of these are static? Which of these are dynamic?

3. Thermohaline Circulation: The Global Conveyor Belt

4. How thermohaline circulation runs

5. How Thermohaline Circulation works

6. How the Thermohaline affects the atmosphere.

7. Thermohaline Circulation, as viewed from the North Pole

8. What happens in the Antarctic

9. What can happen?

10. What can happen? (cont.) The global conveyor belt thermohaline circulation is driven primarily by the formation and sinking of deep water. When the strength of the haline forcing increases due to excess precipitation, runoff, or ice melt the conveyor belt will weaken or even shut down. The variability in the strength of the conveyor belt will lead to climate change in Europe and it could also influence other areas of the global ocean.

11. So how does it affect climate? http://www.pik- potsdam.de/~stefan/thc_fact_sheet.htmlhttp://www.pik- potsdam.de/~stefan/thc_fact_sheet.html

12. So what present Climate Oscillations have been noted? El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Arctic Oscillation (AO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

13. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Southern Pacific Current(s) involved: South Pacific Gyre General length of time for each phase: 3 – 5 years What phase are we currently in? La Nina is ending(?) Positive Phase (La Nina) –Sea surface temperatures Peru current cooler than normal –Atmospheric pressure surface pressures tend to be low over the warm waters of the equatorial western Pacific Weather outcomes Rainy across Australia, Indonesia, Philippines, Amazonia Drought W. South America, Southern US Negative Phase (El Nino) Sea surface temperatures – Peru Current cooler than normal Peru Current warmer than normal Atmospheric pressure pressure over the western Pacific rises and the air pressure over the eastern Pacific falls. Weather outcomes Rainy in W. South America Drought in Australia

14. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) During El Niño, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are warmer than usual (top), while during La Niña the same region is cooler.

15. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el- nino-story.htmlhttp://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el- nino-story.html

16. What results…

18. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Ocean involved: North Atlantic Current(s) involved: North Atlantic Gyre General length of time for each phase: no real periodicity What phase are we currently in? positive http://addins.wrex.com/blogs/we ather/2011/12/lets-stay- positive-because-last-year- we-were-negative Positive Phase –Strong Azores High, Iceland Low –Weather outcomes: USA has mild winter; Europe gets snow; North Africa stays dry Negative Phase –Pressure centers shift eastward, become weaker –Weather outcomes: USA has cold winter; Europe has cold dry winter; N. Africa gets rain.

21. What results…

22. Arctic Oscillation (AO) Ocean involved: Arctic Current(s) involved: Beufort Gyre, Transpolar Drift General length of time for each phase – no real periodicity What phase are we currently in? positive Positive Phase –Weak Beaufort Gyre; Stronger Transpolar Drift –Higher Atmospheric pressure –Weather outcomes: frigid winter air does not extend as far into the middle of North America Negative Phase –Strong Beaufort Gyre; Weaker Transpolar Drift –Lower Atmospheric pressure –Weather outcomes: colder winter in Eastern USA

26. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Ocean involved: North Pacific Current(s) involved: North Pacific Gyre General length of time for each phase: 20-30 years! What phase are we currently in? entering a “cool” phase(?) Positive (COOL) Phase –Sea surface temperatures: Cooler than normal –Atmospheric pressure: strong hi/lo differential –Weather outcomes: mild temperatures over much of North America, and unusually strong precipitation along the Gulf of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. Negative (WARM) Phase –Sea surface temperatures: warmer than normal –Atmospheric pressure: weaker hi/lo differential –Weather outcomes: extreme temperatures over much of North America, and less precipitation along the Gulf of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico.

28. PDO vs. ENSO