1. Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2015 February 3, 2015

2. Class Information and News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W15 –Record of course Rood’s Class MediaWiki SiteClass MediaWiki Site –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action A tumbler site to help me remember –http://openclimate.tumblr.com/http://openclimate.tumblr.com/

3. Resources and Recommended Reading Paul Edwards: A Vast Machine Rood’s Series on Bumps and WigglesRood’s Series on Bumps and Wiggles

4. Outline: Class 8, Winter 2015 Thought problems –How to measure Earth has warmed? –“Ice-age” figure and observations Observations: The observing system –Some examples –Characteristics of observing systems “Internal” Variability

5. Question for Rumination Madden and Ramanathan Predicted in 1980 that warming would be discernable in 2000.Madden and Ramanathan What would you do to evaluate the theory and predictions of global warming? –Surface of planet will warm –Sea level will rise –Weather will change Think about Measurements Feedbacks Correlative behavior Impacts

6. Return to the “Ice-Age” picture From an observational perspective, what are the characteristics, challenges of this figure?

7. Bubbles of gas trapped in layers of ice give a measure of temperature and carbon dioxide 350,000 years of Surface Temperature and Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) at Vostok, Antarctica ice cores  During this period, temperature and CO 2 are closely related to each other  Times of low temperature have glaciers, ice ages (CO 2 <~ 200 ppm)  Times of high temperature associated with CO 2 of < 300 ppm

8. Observations: What do we measure? Foundation of scientific method –What is etymology of phenomenon? What do we measure? –Temperature –Precipitation –Carbon dioxide –That which allows us to calculate budgets To diagnose, analyze, understand To predict

9. “How” do we measure climate? Strategy “Technology” Difference between “weather” and “climate” observations?

10. Proxy measures Glaciers Tree rings Pollen Ice cores –contain tiny bubbles of ancient air — not really a proxy, but a direct measure Corals Many others

11. Observations: The Observing System

12. Surface Air Temperature Why do we use this as a measure of climate?

13. United States Temperature

14. U.S. Surface Observations 1828 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

15. U.S. Surface Observations 1848 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

16. U.S. Surface Observations 1888 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

17. Global Surface Temperature Observations http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html

18. Surface observations What is most disturbing about the surface observations in the previous figure?

19. Looking up and down

20. Down in the ocean

21. IPCC Ocean Heat Content ERROR IN DATA

22. Error in Ocean Data Set Ocean Cooling Correction -Outgoing Energy -Sea level rise -Direct comparisons with other observations

23. Up in the air

24. Temperature Above the Ground A Balloon Borne Radiosonde

25. Average vertical temperature profile (This is representative of the tropics) Balloon Radiosonde Very high vertical resolution. Most accurate measurement in the atmosphere.

26. Balloon (radiosonde) network (2001)

27. “Climate” Radiosondes Selected because of length and quality of the record. Revisit this data and look for errors and correct them. Commitment to standards in the future. … See: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/cab/igra/index.phphttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/cab/igra/index.php http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/cab/ratpac/index.php

28. What about satellites?

29. Satellites Satellites can measure the absorption or emission of radiative energy. This energy can be related to temperature. This is not easy. –Satellite is going fast. –Launching shakes things up. –Space is a harsh environment. –Once you have a radiance measurement, how do you make it temperature? Absolute calibration from one satellite to the next

30. Why satellite data? Coverage, coverage, coverage. Only calibrate one instrument.

31. The Elements of the Data System Conventional Operational Satellite Applications: Process Definition - Definition of physical mechanisms - Use of observations to define feedback mechanisms - Reanalysis data sets Applications: Prediction and Hindcast -Objective evaluation of change -Alternative scenarios for climate forcings -How to use observations in prediction -Predictions for multi-member ensembles Observation mission support - Quality Control/Instrument Monitoring - Validation (linking different scales) - Definition of future observing system - Retrieval of geophysical parameters Research Satellite

32. Characteristics of data systems

33. Characteristics of data systems (1) Coverage varies with time Coverage is high in some areas, low in others –Where people live Data, for the most part, not taken for climate –Weather –Agriculture –Transportation –Research –…

34. Characteristics of data systems (2) Quality control of calibration –How does instrument hold up over time? –New types of instrument –New manufacturers of instrument –Different countries have different instruments –… The measurement site changes –The tree grows up and it’s in the shade –A parking lot is built –They move the airport –…

35. Characteristics of data systems (3) The measure site isn’t “representative” –Next to the harbor –Top / Bottom of the hill –In the middle of the city –Next to the exhaust vent Measurement standards vary –12 inches off the ground –5 feet off the ground –Shielded from sun and wind –Time of day it is recorded The data is recorded incorrectly …..

36. Changes in instrumentation (Karl et al. 1993) (Thank you Paul Edwards)

37. Note: There is consistency from many models, many scenarios, that there will be warming. (1.5 – 5.5 C) Also, it’s still going up in 2100! Basic physics of temperature increase is very simple, non- controversial. This represents the uncertainties in the observations

38. Some prominent data controversies Surface temperature observations Satellite versus surface trends Ocean heat content Warming “hiatus”

39. Back to that thought problem

40. Question for Rumination Madden and Ramanathan Predicted in 1980 that warming would be discernable in 2000.Madden and Ramanathan What would you do to evaluate the theory and predictions of global warming? –Surface of planet will warm –Sea level will rise –Weather will change Think about Measurements Feedbacks Correlative behavior Impacts

41. Internal variability

42. Temperature and CO 2 : The last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.

43. Schematic of a model experiment.   Start model prediction Model prediction without forcing Model prediction with forcing Model prediction with forcing and source of internal variability Observations or “truth” E a t+  t = E a t +  t ( (P a – L a E a ) + (Tr a  oil + M a ) )

44. Sources of internal variability There is “natural” variability. –Solar variability –Volcanic activity –Internal “dynamics” Atmosphere - Weather Ocean Atmosphere-ocean interactions Atmosphere-ocean-land-ice interactions “Natural” does not mean that these modes of variability remain constant as the climate changes. Separation of “natural” and “human-caused.”

45. Energy doesn’t just come and go The atmosphere and ocean are fluids. The horizontal distribution of energy, causes these fluids to move. That is “weather” and ocean currents and the “general circulation.” “General circulation” is the accumulated effect of individual events.

46. Transport of heat poleward by atmosphere and oceans This is an important part of the climate system One could stand back far enough in space, average over time, and perhaps average this away. This is, however, weather... and weather is how we feel the climate day to day –It is likely to change because we are changing the distribution of average heating

47. Some Aspects of Climate Variability One of the ways to think about climate variability is to think about persistent patterns of weather –Rainy periods Floods –Dry periods Droughts During these times the weather for a region does not appear random – it perhaps appears relentless

48. An example of variability: Seasons Temperature Winter Summer Cold Warm Rain comes in fronts Rain comes in thunderstorms Messy Forced variability responding to solar heating

49. Wave Motion and Climate

50. Internal Variability? Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Niño – La NiñaEl Niño – La Niña What is El Niño –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

51. GISS Temperature 2002 1997-98 El Niño

52. Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction: El-Niño

53. Changes during El Niño

54. Times series of El Niño (NOAA CPC) OCEAN TEMPERATURE EASTERN PACIFIC ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE DIFFERENCE EL NIñO LA NIñA

55. Some good El Niño Information NOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Niño / La NiñaNOAA Climate Prediction: Current El Niño / La Niña NOAA CPC: Excellent slides on El Niño –This is a hard to get to educational tour. This gets you in the middle and note navigation buttons on the bottom.

56. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies

57. Internal Variability? Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Niño – La NiñaEl Niño – La Niña What is El Niño –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

58. North Atlantic Oscillation Positive Phase U.S. East, Mild and Wet Europe North, Warm and Wet Canada North & Greenland, Cold and Dry Negative Phase U.S. East, Cold Air Outbreaks, Snow (dry) Europe North, Cold; South, Wet Greenland, Warm

59. North Atlantic Oscillation Phase (from Climate Prediction Center)Climate Prediction Center

60. January 2011 Temperature Anomalies

61. Year-to-Year Changes in Winter Temperatures Differences Relative to 1961-1990 Average Late 1970s 2006-2011 From Jim Hurrell

62. Internal Variability? Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes. –El Niño – La NiñaEl Niño – La Niña What is El Niño –North Atlantic OscillationNorth Atlantic Oscillation Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation –Annular ModeAnnular Mode –Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation

63. Does the Pacific Decadal Oscillation operate regularly lasting 20-30 years, and does southern California experience droughts during that period? The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is one of several “oscillations” that are important to weather and climate. Some attributes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

64. Pacific Decadal Oscillation: Basics Better version of figure from JISAO Colors: Sea Surface Temperature difference from long term average. Arrows: Stress on the ocean surface caused by winds Warm here Cool here

65. Some information on Pacific Decadal Oscillation Joint Institute for Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO):JISAO –Pacific Decadal OscillationPacific Decadal Oscillation Climate Prediction Center (CPC):CPC –90 Day Outlook Summary90 Day Outlook Summary –Weather and Climate LinkageWeather and Climate Linkage National Climatic Data Center (NCDC):NCDC –Decadal OscillationsDecadal Oscillations Review Paper from Rood Class References –Mantua and Hare (2002) J of OceanographyMantua and Hare (2002) J of Oceanography

66. Summary: Class 8, Winter 2015 Observing system: Challenges –Global coverage –Temporal coverage –Instrumental jumps –Physical consistency

67. Summary: Class 8, Winter 2015 Internal variability –How do we account for internal variability?

68. Outline: Class 8, Winter 2015 Thought problems –How to measure Earth has warmed? –“Ice-age” figure and observations Observations: The observing system –Some examples –Characteristics of observing systems “Internal” Variability