Improving Quality of Area & Production Estimates of Crops By Directorate of Economics & Statistics Department of Agriculture & Cooperation Ministry of Agriculture New Delhi National Conference on Agriculture for Kharif Campaign 20 th & 21 st March 2009, New Delhi

 Advance Estimates (27 crops) –First:September/October –Second:January/February –Third:April/May –Fourth:June/July  Final Estimates (44 crops) –Six months after the end of agriculture year System of Release of Estimates of Agriculture Production  The Directorate of Economics & Statistics in the Union Ministry of Agriculture brings out four advance estimates and one final estimate at the national level: Contd…

State Agricultural Statistics Authorities (SASAs)  State Governments have designated one of its Departments as SASA which is responsible for providing requisite data at prescribed intervals to DES for finalising Advance Estimates.  SASA’s vary from State to State and is one of the following State Departments:  Deptt. of Agriculture  Deptt. of Economics & Statistics  Deptt. of Land Records

Validation of Data  DES validates the above data at the national level with input from:  Forecasts given by the Space Applications Center (SAC), Ahmedabad and IEG, New Delhi  Inputs received from the weekly Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) meetings  Results of the available Crop Cutting Experiments received from the SASAs/ NSSO for selected crops  Trends in the area, production and yield of different crops during the last 5 years and  Trends in procurement and prices of respective commodities

Some Important Issues  Inter State variation in yield rates  Year to year large variations in estimates within the State  Large variations in successive advance estimates and final estimates  Inter-agency variation in the estimates within the State  Mismatch between the district wise estimates and State level estimates received from SASA’s  Reliability of the results of the crop-cutting experiments

Inter State variation in yield rates (Rice) State/ UT ProductionYield (Kg./Hectare) Andhra Pradesh Assam Bihar Chattisgarh Gujarat Haryana Jammu & Kashmir Jharkhand Karnataka Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Orissa Punjab Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh West Bengal All India

Inter State variation in yield rates (Wheat) State/ UT ProductionYield (Kg./Hectare) Bihar Gujarat Haryana Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Punjab Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh All India

Inter State variation in yield rates (Total Coarse Cereals) State/UT ProductionYield (Kg/Hectare) Andhra Pradesh Bihar Gujarat Haryana Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh All India

Inter State variation in yield rates (Groundnut) States ProductionYield (Kgs./Hect.) Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Karnataka Maharashtra Rajasthan Tamil Nadu All India

Inter State variation in yield rates (Soyabean) STATES ProductionYield (Kgs./Hect.) Andhra Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Rajasthan All India

Inter State variation in yield rates (Cotton) STATES ProductionYield ( Kg/Hect. ) Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Haryana Maharashtra Punjab All India

Inter-agency variation in the estimates within the State State Production (Lakh Tonnes) DES Cane Commiss ioner DifferenceDES Cane Commiss ioner Difference Uttar Pradesh Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Karnataka Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Bihar Others All-India

Suggestions  Crop estimates should not be treated as a routine activity.  The assessment need to be validated by considering rainfall, weather conditions and market behaviour.  A Core Group of officers of concerned departments under the leadership of State Agriculture Secretary may periodically meet to firm up the estimates with other State Agencies before furnishing data to the Central Government Contd…

 The Core Group should also liaise with D/Sugar, D/Horticulture, other agriculture input related Deptts. (e.g. Irrigation, Power, Weather, Remote Sensing, Agriculture Research Institute etc.) before finalising estimates of area and production.  States with low yield rates in some crops should scrutinize more closely and validate their assessment.

Despite financial support under various schemes in the Agriculture sector, if the productivity is not increasing in some States, what are the reasons?

Thanks !!!

Inter State variation in yield rates (Gram) State/ UT ProductionYield (Kg./Hectare) Andhra Pradesh Chattisgarh Gujarat Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh All India

Inter State variation in yield rates (Pulses) State/UT ProductionYield (Kg./Hectare) Andhra Pradesh Bihar Chhattisgarh Gujarat Haryana Jharkhand Karnataka Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Orissa Rajasthan All India

Inter State variation in yield rates (Oilseeds) STATES ProductionYied (Kgs./Hect.) Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Haryana Karnataka Madhya Prd Maharashtra Rajasthan Tamil Nadu Uttar Prd All India

Inter State variation in yield rates (Sugarcane) STATES/UT ProductionYield (Kgs./Hect.) Andhra Pradesh Bihar Gujarat Haryana Karnataka Maharashtra Tamil Nadu Uttar Pradesh Uttaranchal All India

Variation in Production Estimates YearEstimated Production of Foodgrains (Million Tonnes) 2 nd Advance 3 rd Advance 4 th Advance Final Estimate %2.05%0.53% %1.47%0.05% Contd…