Demographic change at small area level Small area statistics to develop public policy Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds ESRC RES-163-25-0012.

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Presentation transcript:

Demographic change at small area level Small area statistics to develop public policy Paul Norman School of Geography, University of Leeds ESRC RES

Demographic change at small area level Small area statistics to develop public policy Information relating to components of population change Counts of births, deaths, migration, etc. Rates of births, deaths, migration, etc. Estimates for past population & forecasts of the future Following slides in no particular order Facets are overlapping Some conceptual, some practical

Time frame? Past Estimates, based on evidence Future Projections, trends Forecasts, assumptions Length of time-frame? Long enough to identify trends Long enough for policy Too long  less accurate 1981? 2031?

Small area geography? Council Area Data Zone Ward, Parish, Settlement Postal Sector Output Area Unit Postcode Familiar areas Previous data Boundary change? Frozen geography Unfamiliar areas? Back data? Future proof? Small Area Flexible, versatile Technical challenge? Desire or need? Statistical Traditional Futuristical

Demographic detail? Geographic detail Demographic detail Reliability? Significance of rates? Confidentiality? Safe detail Safe users Safe data Safe access Data detail

Consistency vs. Currency? Topics & variables Same as before Relevant to now / future Geography Same as before / now, frozen into future Current / future geography, update old data Old detail for comparability Current detail for applicability Estimates & lookups

Pre-calculated data? Simple: less reliable but transparent, regular & quick updates Sophisticated: opaque, time-consuming but robust & relevant Revise previous releases Estimates improved with hindsight but rates & interpretations change UKLocal Comparability / standard area ScotlandEurope Methods

National coverage vs. Local knowledge? Data on ‘hard to estimate’ groups & areas of fast change National Consistent across all areas Simpler, more transparent Local Immigrant & other sub- groups Institutions, Students, Military bases Travellers, Sleeping rough Planning inputs National coverage Local knowledge

Data sources on components? Births & deaths Current data no problem Backdated time-series? Migration Administrative sources National registration, but needs public support Sub-groups Ethnic groups Occupational & social groups Living arrangements & institutional populations

Consistency & agreement between agencies? UKLocal Census Questions & categories of answers Geographical hierarchy Confidentiality Commissioned tables Scotland Vital Statistics Demographic & geographic detail Time scales of availability

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