National Centers for Environmental Prediction: “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” An Overview

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3 Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service

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5 NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Space Environment Center Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services. Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. Storm Prediction Center

6 What Does NCEP Do? ?Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather ?International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts ?Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation ?Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation (Turbulence, Icing) High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

7 Aviation Weather Center Provides aviation warnings and forecasts of hazardous flight conditions at all levels within domestic and international airspace Domestic programs –Area Forecast (FA) – AIRMETs/SIGMETs icing, turbulence, IFR, volcanic ash, – Convective SIGMETs thunderstorms, valid 2 hrs, outlook valid 2- 6 hrs – CCFP significant thunderstorm outlook (2/4/6 hrs) – Low Level SIGWX prog International Products –Gulf of Mexico Area Forecast for Helicopters – Caribbean Area Forecast for General Aviation – International SIGMETs for 7 Oceanic Areas – High Level Significant Weather Charts for 7 ICAO areas – International Flight Folder Documentation Program (IFFDP)

8 Effectively integrating SEC into the aviation community –SEC presentation to 2005 WAFC coordination meeting (UK, FAA, AWC). Space weather as a WAFS service considered. Two papers submitted to ICAO in –Assist SEC to ensure products are distributed through communications distribution points. Advising SEC on both General Aviation and Commercial Aviation services –SEC prototype high-latitude HF communication product being developed with AWC guidance. Awaiting funding to go operational. –Help SEC through Aviation Weather Technology Process. Process by which aviation weather products become operational. Space weather is included in the NGATS effort and in the weather Concept of Operations –aircraft and spacecraft radiation, satellite navigation, and communication effects (all relative to running the National Airspace System) Cross-Center Activities Aviation Weather Center

9 AWC Cross-Center Support Space Environment Center Aviation Page

10 AWC Cross-Center Support Storm Prediction Center/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center SPC SREF output (SREF-based Thunderstorm Guidance) used as decision-making tool to enhance Collaborative Convective Forecast Process HPC provides forecasts of fronts, isobars and precip for low-level sig wx progs. AWC provides aviation parameters.

11 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Distribute Local Offices Local Offices Central Guidance Central Guidance Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, … NCEP Feedback - Process - Assimilate - Predict - Process - Assimilate - Predict

12 S/I Predictions Climate/Weather Linkage Week 2 Hazards Assessment ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather CPC TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth TPCOPC HPC SECAWCSPC Space Weather Winter Weather Tropical Storms Severe Weather Ocean Storms Aviation Hazards NDFD, Days Day Forecast WFORFCWFORFC CWSUCWSU

13 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System* TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Models Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF Operational Model Perspective

14 * 1.1Billion Obs/Day * Satellites (99.99%) GFS CFS Hurricane WRF SREF NAM – WRF NMM NOAH Land Surface Model Dispersion Air Quality Forecas t Global Data Assimilation WRF-NMM WRF-ARW ETA RSM L D A S Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW NAEFS NDASNDAS Rapid Update Cycle Ensemble Hurricane/GFDL Global Climate Regional MOM3 HYCOM Ocean NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite

15 Receives Over 1.1 Billion Global Observations Daily Computational Speed: Trillion Calculations/Sec Generates More Than 14.8 Million Model Fields Each Day 6 million of which are derived from the global ensemble Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) Backup located in Fairmont, WV Upgrade Operational January 24, 2007 Computing Capability Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) Primary Weather $13.9 M Primary Climate $5.3 M Backup $7.2 M Total: $26.4 M

16 IBM P690 IBM 701 IBM 704 IBM 7090 IBM 7094 CDC 6600 IBM 360/195 CYBER 205 CRAY Y-MP CRAY C90 IBM SP IBM P655

Number of Hits (Millions) Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page Comms Upgrade

Key Shifts Moving Beyond the Status Quo Producers of Our Forecasts Static Resource Phenomenon-Based Forecasts Product-Based Services CoordinationWeather-centric Deterministic (best forecast) Customers of Our Expertise Dynamic Resource Impact-Based Forecasts Decision Support Services Collaborative Weather Enterprise* Earth System Science* Probabilistic (uncertainty range)* FromTo Challenges/Opportunities

19 Entering the Ensemble Era Establishment of North American Ensemble Forecast System –U.S. contributes 80 members per day out to 16 days –Canada contributes 40 members per day out to 10 days Global Ensemble –20 Members, 4 times/day (since March 2007)

20 ?21 members 4 times per day ?87 hrs from 9 and 21Z ?WRF/NMM, WRF/ARW, Eta, RSM ?Resolution km/60 levels ?Mean and spread charts available for forecaster use ?Developing SREF aviation products (prob of Flight restrictions, C&V, cloud amount, low level wind shear, icing, turbulence, tropopause, etc. Short Range Ensemble Forecast

21 Increasing Collaboration Within the NWS SPC/WFO –Watch “by county” HPC/WFO –Winter Weather Desks –Medium Range: Days 4-7 –Hurricane “Hot Line” AWC/WFO/CWSU –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product CPC/ Regions/WFO/RFC –Hazard Assessment –Seasonal outlooks OPC/WFO –Near shore  High seas HPC-TPC-OPC-AR-PR –Unified Surface Analysis! SEC – AWC –Solar/Aviation Products

22 Forces for Change Increasing emphasis on ensemble approaches –Multi-model ensembles SREF NAEFS Climate Forecast System Entering the NPOESS era –More rapid access to hyperspectral data –GPS soundings –Higher resolution surface radiance data All models run within ESMF –Models run concurrently –Hybrid vertical coordinate –Coupled –Spanning all scales Address key service issues like NGATS Model Region 1 Model Region 2 Global/Regional Model Domain ESMF-based System

23 Summary Model performance for routine and extreme events continues to improve Increasing reliance on forecasts by decision makers Ensemble model approach becoming “the model of choice” Collaborative forecast facilitated by the workstation/digital approach; having major impact on all forecast products Moving toward “Earth System” forecast to provide for the “Sun to the Sea”

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25 National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices -- NCEP Centers

26 Space Environment Center SEC formally joined NCEP/NWS/NOAA on January 9, 2005 –Their addition helps foster a seamless suite of operational products from the “Sun to the Sea” Provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth Prediction /Monitoring products include: –Onset of solar storms and magnitude of resultant geomagnetic disturbances with impacts on GPS, aircraft, communications, satellite systems, utilities, aurora,… Next Solar Max – 2011!

27 ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate/Weather/Water Weather Prediction Products Climate Prediction Products TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth HYDROLOGICPRODUCTSHYDROLOGICPRODUCTS

Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models Cryosphere Atmosphere Ocean Land Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems Real-time operations require world’s largest computers

29 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Construction began May 2007 Move complete July 2009

30 Ensemble Forecasting Initial perturbation approach: Small errors in initial conditions lead to growing forecast errors, even if models are perfect Information on the predictability can be obtained by running the model from a number of initial conditions Multi-model approach: apparently captures range of forecast and related accuracy So what “approach” will it be?