Nuclear and Energy terrorism: Talk at the ANS meeting Seabrook Richard Wilson Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics Harvard University August 7th 2002

First task: Define the problem. Next task: break it into manageable component parts factorizable as much as possible

Dangers of Nuclear technology (1) Terrorist use of a bomb (2) Terrorist destruction of a nuclear power plant I will address (2) first

Making Society Safer Consider the Low Probability High Consequence Accident If you dont, the saboteur will, and make it more probable. Do not store a lot of fuel in one place near a lot of people in one place.

EVENT TREE ANALYSIS Imagine what a terrorist might do: and devise a system to make it hard for him to do it. Stop the event as early in the chain as possible

Making Society Safer Terrorism and Sabotage already considered for nuclear power. Do not store a lot of fuel in one place near a lot of people in one place. (Remote siting) “A saboteur could not do worse than those clowns did on their own” (NFRasmussen after TMI) BUT: a saboteur can increase the frequency

The containment vessel solves many problems (even airplane hits) but: study carefully whether such action outside the containment can set off an accident

Other parts of the energy system are less well protected: LNG only needs mixing with air and a match LNG tanks too near cities oil tanks near airports Oil and LNG transportation

People built cities at the mouths of rivers. We build hydroelectric dams up the same river If the dam at the 500 Mwe plant at Littleton NH failed (in time of flood) all the dams downstream would fail in turn. (Common mode failure)

Few plans for a major fire at WTC? (FEMA report) Insulation not tested for durability Fire and initial impact destroyed all safety mechanisms (Common mode failure should have been foreseen!) Helicopter fire fighters? Protect buildings by cables from towers or balloons?

Inspect the insulation of all buildings over 50 stories high. (expensive but possible; e.g. apply a heat source to steel in one location and compare the temperature - time profile with calculation)

Pilots would now resist a hijacking Bar cockpit doors Hidden switch to take control of plane to ground or automatic pilot (already suggested)

Nuclear War and nuclear terrorism Risk = Probability of event X consequence of event Consequence would be huge Is the probability really small? THIS RISK OVERWHELMS all risks of society

At the Cuban missile crisis we had 70. USSR had 35 The family was scared. How many nuclear bombs do we need? 100? 1000? 4000? 50,000?

Linus Pauling’s Estimate of Probability We have had no nuclear bomb used in war since 1945; The world is about as stable as it was 57 years ago So P is about 1/57 IF THIS BIG WE ARE IN DEEP TROUBLE

Those who understand nuclear matters have an especial duty and ability to help the world avoid self destruction.

Salt II was only getting us down to 3000 weapons and then only by counting warheads The new treaty is worse

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is a small step but is symbolic. If we do not ratify it there will be world disappointment

July 31st NAS report says: Technical criticisms are invalid because: (1) The Capacity of US to maintain confidence in reliability of the stockpile is adequate (2) The Capability to monitor tests is excellent (3) additions to capability that countries could achieve by testing is small.

The first seven bombs anyome made worked. One only needs to test sophisticated weapons: low yield high yield battlefield etc

The biggest security (in my view) is the existence of a large cadre of nuclear informed people throughout the world who understand these matters. This is where you come in. Become informed!

An industrialized country such as Japan or Canada could make a bomb within 6 months if it wished. Iraq was >3 years off in 1991 and maybe 7 years off now. Let us work on the countries’ wishes.

Terrorists could steal pure material preferably separated U235 Pure Pu is harder radioactive, unseparated, Pu is much harder isotope composition does not matter much

What is the sequence of events that leads to a terrorist action? 1. Breeding of a terrorist 2. Allowing terrorists nearby 3. Sensitive situations Stop as early in the chain of events as possible

I have few conclusions but many questions to answer. We must address disagreements

Definition of a Terrorist (OED) The terrorists, as they were justly denominated, from the cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the people in implicit subjugation by a merciless severity (1795) Several notables are believed to be more or less implicated in the acts of the Terrorists (1905) Miss G...., daughter of a Wexford terrorist, directed many of the tortures which were so extensively practiced (1866) some book of the religious terrorists which tended to infuse the alarm of foul perdition(1805)

Was Hitler and his Nazis a gang of terrorists? even though they were the legitimate government of Germany, originally elected by the people? Were opponents of Hitler terrorists? Esp. Colonel Von Stauffenburg who tried to assassinate Hitler with a bomb in a brief case?

Were the Hutus in Ruanda terrorists when they killed Tutsis although the legitimate government? Were the Young Turks terrorists when they victimized the Armenians in 1916? Or were the Armenians terrorists because they were not model citizens? Were (and are) the opponents of British rule in Ireland terrorists? Has the situation changed since partition in 1922?

Is the government of Russia guilty of terrorism against the people of Chechnya (who have as much voting power as other residents of Russia) or are the radical Chechens guilty of terrorism against Russia? Or both? Is the government of Sri Lanka acting like the Jacobins against the Tamils of the north, or are the Tamils a bunch of terrorists to be tamed?

Was the US terrorising people in WACO Texas, or fighting terrorists? Timothy McVeigh thought the former Was General Custer fighting a band of Indian terrorists, or were the Indians fighting an oppression worse than the French had experienced in 1795?

Was Castro a terrorist or a freedom fighter when he opposed the government of Batista? What about those branded by Castro as terrorists to whom the USA has given citizenship?

We must not duck the difficult questions but face them head on.

Is the government of Israel a terrorist government because they follow " the cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the (Palestinian) people in implicit subjugation by a merciless severity"? Or are the Palestinians all terrorists because they belong to an organization opposing the present government of Israel and its policies and particularly in its early days, aim to drive them into the sea?

Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983). The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1984) "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". Gerry Adams? Kashmiri Leader? Yasar Arafat? NO!

Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1973). The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1984) "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". Thomas Jefferson (1774)

One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. Monachem Begin; terrorist in 1945 leader of Israel 1978 Bourgiba, jailed in Cairo, first President of Tunisia A rebellion is a Revolution that does not succeed (Victor Weisskopf) May 1940, I learned unarmed combat. Was I becoming a terrorist or a Freedom fighter?

30 years ago a friend of mine became a terrorist. Then he became a freedom fighter Within 6 months he was a statesman He did not change. He lives in Bangladesh

The Planners and Financiers of Terrorism President Bush says he opposed the planners, and financiers, of terrorism. How about those in NY and Boston who financed the IRA?

Civilian or Military Targets? Are they different? Must a civilian be unarmed? What about throwing stones? Even at worshippers? Does a military target justify Collateral damage? What about the terror of Mutually Assured Destruction

Cowardly acts Are "suicide bombers" "cowardly"? Japanese Kamikaze pilots? Colonel Claus von Stauffenburg in 1944? Pilots dropping bombs on a UN refugee camp? Suicide bomber in Tel Aviv?

Step 1 The root causes of Terrorism We a diverse community of many races, religions, cultures and nations, commit ourselves to work for peace and justice everywhere in the world. We invite others to join in this commitment. We must and will fight ignorance, poverty, hunger, intolerance and injustice wherever and whenever they show their ugly faces. We must succeed so that no one state, no one group or even one individual will ever again have the desperation to perform such an abominable act as the attack on September 11th 2001 or shelter one of the perpetrators"

Step 2. Keeping Terrorists at Arm’s length Resolve major trouble spots before they fester Kashmir Israel - Palestine Capitalize on present unanimity Mikhail Gorbachev urges use of UN set up in 1945 for such purposes but bypassed by USA and USSR

Some terrorists are now educated. Also some act in concert Sabotage and terrorism are unfortunate facts of life. They will be with us until the end of the human race.

We must not let terrorism distort our lives. Other risks are bigger. Car accidents: 45,000/yr vs. 3,500 once Drugs destroy society more Security vs. Freedom Our human rights are what makes life worth living.

“If you still want to belong to an organization dedicated to killing Americans, there’s always the tobacco lobby.” Alex Gregory, Cartoonbank.com