1. Setting the Stage Global Foundation Conference Washington DC. October 10th to 12th 2002 Addressing Vulnerabilities: Science and Technologies in Secure Energy Systems Richard Wilson Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics Harvard University October 10th 2002

2. Modern Society is very Vulnerable in many different ways Energy systems Computer Networks Transportation Networks

3. Do not store a lot of fuel in one place near a lot of people in one place. (Wigner) Oil tanks and LNG facilities should be in remote areas. (In 1848 London decided to keep petroleum products 30 miles from London bridge in Canvey Island) Terrorism and Sabotage already considered for nuclear power.

4. Hydroelectric Dams Mankind has built Ports and Cities on Estuaries and Rivers Flood Control Dams and Hydroelectric Dams are in upper reaches Folsom Dam above Sacramento Littleton Dam on Connecticut River Missouri/Missisippi is worse!!

5. LNG is a fuel almost ready to burn/explode Just mix with air/oxygen Typical 17 million gallon tank could be 20 Hiroshimas Keep your distance.

6. Transmission Networks have failed for “trivial” reasons A relay failure in Canada set off the NE blackout of 1967 A substation failure in Naperville ILL shut down O’Hare airport

7. We must take into account the Low Probability High Consequence event. Terrorists will and try to make it more probable

8. Few plans for a major fire at WTC? (FEMA report) Insulation not tested for durability Fire and initial impact destroyed all safety mechanisms (Common mode failure should have been foreseen!) Helicopter fire fighters? Protect buildings by cables from towers or balloons?

9. World Trade Center Building Construction inadequate in many ways Port Authority had its own code No code for the insulation

10. Langer and Morse suggest that: Insulation sprayed on rusty beams May NEVER have stuck properly Not as good as asbestos Not inspected again after other trades did their work They claim that IF asbestos had been used building would still stand

11. Inspect the insulation of all buildings over 50 stories high. (expensive but possible; e.g. apply a heat source to steel in one location and compare the temperature - time profile with calculation)

12. We can protect energy systems a bit better but not enough we should step back and: Try to stop terrorists being created Try to stop terrorists having access WITHOUT ruining our society

13. Imagine what a terrorist might do: and devise a system to make it hard for him to do it. Stop the event as early in the chain as possible (dont let trouble spots fester) Event Tree Analysis

14. The chain starts even further back: (1) Creation of a terrorist (2) Terrorist has access to a vulnerable system (3) Terrorist acts

15. The best is trying to stop terrorists being created but that is not this conference So consider next step Trying to prevent access can be done in a variety of ways

16. Use profiling to identify suspicous groups (BUT studies show that terrorists are just like us) Keep track of all suspicous activities. Dont let anyone near anything dangerous (no handguns shotguns etc)

17. Fundamental Question How do we have a Department of Homeland Security without it becoming like the infamous KGB?

18. USSR society was probably more free from crime. They did it by fear.

19. Some terrorists are now educated. Also some act in concert Sabotage and terrorism are unfortunate facts of life. They will be with us until the end of the human race.

20. We must not let terrorism distort our lives. Other risks are bigger. Car accidents: 45,000/yr vs. 3,500 once Drugs destroy society more Security vs. Freedom Our human rights are what makes life worth living.

21. “If you still want to belong to an organization dedicated to killing Americans, there’s always the tobacco lobby.” Alex Gregory, Cartoonbank.com

22. First task: Define the problem. Next task: break it into manageable component parts factorizable as much as possible

23. Bush's Prescription to stop terrorism “Get the guy who did this” But in a suicide attack he is dead. How do you find the planner? Who is a terrorist? When is a man a terrorist and when is he a freedom fighter? Is a terrorist a coward?

24. Did September 11 th 2001 (4000 people killed) change the world? Not mine by much. The Rape of Nanking killed 300,000 (1938) The UK air raid on Dresden 300,000 (1944) (but it was the first in America)

25. Globalization and its Consequences Globalization seems inevitable. Consequence of scientific breakthroughs (1) Communication technology (2) Biology (genome) (3) in physics. We cannot say: Stop the world I want to get off !

26. I have few conclusions but many questions to answer. We must address disagreements

27. Bush Called Osame Bin Laden EVIL Does he compare with: Adolf Hitler? Emperor Hirohito? Saddam Hussein? There are a lot of bright people in the world Can’t one of them find a way of getting rid of that man?

28. Definition of a Terrorist (OED) The terrorists, as they were justly denominated, from the cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the people in implicit subjugation by a merciless severity (1795) Several notables are believed to be more or less implicated in the acts of the Terrorists (1905) Miss G...., daughter of a Wexford terrorist, directed many of the tortures which were so extensively practiced (1866) some book of the religious terrorists which tended to infuse the alarm of foul perdition(1805)

29. Was Hitler and his Nazis a gang of terrorists? even though they were the legitimate government of Germany, originally elected by the people? Were opponents of Hitler terrorists? Esp. Colonel Von Stauffenburg who tried to assassinate Hitler with a bomb in a brief case?

30. Were the Hutus in Ruanda terrorists when they killed Tutsis although the legitimate government? Were the Young Turks terrorists when they victimized the Armenians in 1916? Or were the Armenians terrorists because they were not model citizens? Were (and are) the opponents of British rule in Ireland terrorists? Has the situation changed since partition in 1922?

31. Is the government of Russia guilty of terrorism against the people of Chechnya (who have as much voting power as other residents of Russia) or are the radical Chechens guilty of terrorism against Russia? Or both? Is the government of Sri Lanka acting like the Jacobins against the Tamils of the north, or are the Tamils a bunch of terrorists to be tamed?

32. Was the US terrorising people in WACO Texas, or fighting terrorists? Timothy McVeigh thought the former Was General Custer fighting a band of Indian terrorists, or were the Indians fighting an oppression worse than the French had experienced in 1795?

33. Was Castro a terrorist or a freedom fighter when he opposed the government of Batista? What about those branded by Castro as terrorists to whom the USA has given citizenship?

34. We must not duck the difficult questions but face them head on.

35. Is the government of Israel a terrorist government because they follow " the cruel and impolitic maxim of keeping the (Palestinian) people in implicit subjugation by a merciless severity"? Or are the Palestinians all terrorists because they belong to an organization opposing the present government of Israel and its policies and particularly in its early days, aim to drive them into the sea?

37. Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983). The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1984) "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". Gerry Adams?

38. Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983). The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1984) "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". Kashmiri Leader?

39. Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983). The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1984) "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". Yasser Arafat?

40. Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983). The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1984) "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". NO!

41. Possible criteria for choosing sides A terrorist is a man with a bomb and no airplane to drop it from (EM Purcell, 1983). The Azeris were bad first (Elena Bonner, 1984) "Single acts of tyranny may be ascribed to the accidental opinion of the day; but a series of oppressions, begun in a distinguished period and pursued unilaterally thro' every change of ministers, too plainly prove a deliberate, systematical plan of reducing us to slavery". Thomas Jefferson (1774)

42. One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. Monachem Begin; terrorist in 1945 leader of Israel 1978 Bourgiba, jailed in Cairo, first President of Tunisia A rebellion is a Revolution that does not succeed (Victor Weisskopf) May 1940, I learned unarmed combat. Was I becoming a terrorist or a Freedom fighter?

43. 30 years ago a friend of mine became a terrorist. Then he became a freedom fighter Within 6 months he was a statesman He did not change. He lives in Bangladesh

44. The Planners and Financiers of Terrorism President Bush says he opposed the planners, and financiers, of terrorism. How about those in NY and Boston who financed the IRA?

45. Civilian or Military Targets? Are they different? Must a civilian be unarmed? What about throwing stones? Even at worshippers? Does a military target justify Collateral damage? What about the terror of Mutually Assured Destruction

46. Cowardly acts Are "suicide bombers" "cowardly"? Japanese Kamikaze pilots? Colonel Claus von Stauffenburg in 1944? Pilots dropping bombs on a UN refugee camp? Suicide bomber in Tel Aviv?

47. Step 1 The root causes of Terrorism We...... a diverse community of many races, religions, cultures and nations, commit ourselves to work for peace and justice everywhere in the world. We invite others to join in this commitment. We must and will fight ignorance, poverty, hunger, intolerance and injustice wherever and whenever they show their ugly faces. We must succeed so that no one state, no one group or even one individual will ever again have the desperation to perform such an abominable act as the attack on September 11th 2001 or shelter one of the perpetrators"

48. Step 2. Keeping Terrorists at Arm’s length Resolve major trouble spots before they fester Kashmir Israel - Palestine Capitalize on present unanimity Mikhail Gorbachev urges use of UN set up in 1945 for such purposes but bypassed by USA and USSR

49. Pilots would now resist a hijacking Bar cockpit doors Hidden switch to take control of plane to ground or automatic pilot (already suggested)

50. Anthrax scare easy Irradiate all mail at sorting offices (Co60 or Cs137) poisoning water supplies? Emergency purification?