Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (1) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" Motivation Ambitious climate protection goals: e.g.

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Presentation transcript:

Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (1) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" Motivation Ambitious climate protection goals: e.g. 450ppm CO 2 eq –Strongly rising bioenergy demand –Biospheric carbon management: soil carbon, REDD, afforestation –Reduction of methane/nitrous oxide emissions from ag. production Science integration Linking Integrated Assessment models, global agricultural models and farm household models Top-down: Spatially-explicit land use change scenarios; global boundary conditions for household studies Bottom-up: Improvement of global models (e.g. role of mixed systems) Global models: IFPRI, IIASA, PIK, (PBL/IMAGE, …) Regional cases: Indonesia, Brazil, Eastern Africa, Western Africa, India Global modelling: Uncertainty/Sensitivity analysis (Ensembles) Assumptions about food/energy demand, land availability, land use change, technological change

Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (2) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" Household modelling Introduce bioenergy production and other mitigation options to household models Production decisions under new prices/cost structures Food security beyond calories; livelihoods Local energy security/availability (traditional biomass) Challenges Linking annual to decadal time scales Outcome Chances and risks of climate mitigation on food security Livelihood impacts at household level Options for improving governance / institutions (e.g. land tenure, compensation payments) Accounting of carbon, water use, emissions Investment needs in agricultural R&D

Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (3) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" CCAFS/ESSP science value CCAFS: link to IAM, energy sector scenarios, land use change, emission accounting ESSP: "grounding" of global models with local processes/constraints Linking physiology, technology, economics, governance Development value Chances for agriculture/food security: new markets, income, diversification, synergies between adaptation and mitigation Risks for agriculture/food security: competition for land, water, livestock feed Structural value for Ag. science in CCAFS Models as structuring elements for distributed studies Linking and using distributed data CC science value More realistic assessment of mitigation options Synergies/trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation

Collaborative CGIAR-ESSP Project Outline (4) "Pressures on agriculture from climate change mitigation" Link to stakeholders Policy-making: energy/climate policy, ag. policy, spatial planning Strategic research planning/investment Ag. Extension Partners: CCAFS: IFPRI, ILRI, ICRAF, CIFOR, others? ESSP: PIK, IIASA, PBL, others? Funding sources: GIZ/BEAF call, March 2012 EU FP7? Foundations?