INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE International Workshop on Power Generation with Carbon Capture and Storage in India New Delhi, January 2008 International Energy Perspective, World Energy Outlook and the Role of CCS Dr. Antonio Pflüger Head, Energy Technology Collaboration Division International Energy Agency

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Coal’s share of total primary energy supply and power generation, 2005

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE World hard coal reserves (and resources) in top 11 countries, 2005

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Sectoral breakdown of India’s energy- related CO 2 emissions ( )

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE World coal production and CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel use

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE IEA Ministerial Conclusions May 2007 We will promote clean coal and press ahead through the IEA and the CSLF with the full scale demonstration and early deployment of CCS, paying due regard to regulatory and safety issues.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE G8 Summit in Heiligendamm 2007 Accelerating Development and Deployment of CCS reinforcing (…) commitment made under the Gleneagles and St. Petersburg Plans of Action to support the initiatives taken by the IEA and CSLF encouraging (…) governments to design mechanisms to stimulate the construction and operation of a growing number of large- scale demonstrations of sustainable fossil fuels technologies in commercial power generation encouraging industry to consider the concept of capture ready when developing new fossil fuel power plant

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE “We will act with resolve and urgency to meet our shared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving the global environment, enhancing energy security and cutting air pollution in conjunction with our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“ “We will work to accelerate the development and commercialization of carbon capture and storage technology G8 - Gleneagles Communiqué July 2005

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Role of CCS in Mitigating CO 2 Emissions in 2050 – IEA’s 2006 ETP Map Scenario (Return to 2003 Emissions) CCS in all scenarios 20 – 28% emissions reduction compared to Basis scenario

© OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2007 Reference Scenario

© OECD/IEA Conclusions Global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path China and India are transforming the global energy system by their sheer size - faster than expected Challenge for all countries is to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system New policies now under consideration would make a major contribution but more is needed to achieve a CO2 stabilization of 450ppm Next 10 years are critical  The pace of capacity additions will be most rapid  Technology will be “locked-in” for decades  Growing tightness in oil & gas markets

© OECD/IEA Reference Scenario: World Primary Energy Demand Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of a century, with coal use rising most in absolute terms

© OECD/IEA Global Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Global emissions will increase by 57% in the Reference Scenario billion tonnes (Gt) Reference Scenario 42 Gt 27 Gt

© OECD/IEA Reference Scenario: India’s Primary Energy Demand by Fuel Large increase in coal demand Mtoe CoalOilGasNuclearHydroBiomassOther renewables

© OECD/IEA Reference Scenario: Primary Energy Demand in Selected Countries India becomes the third largest energy consuming nation in the world in IndiaChinaBrazilRussiaJapanUnited States Mtoe

© OECD/IEA Reference Scenario: World’s Top Five CO 2 Emitters GtrankGtrankGtrank US China Russia Japan India India becomes the world’s third-largest energy-related emitter of CO 2 by 2015

© OECD/IEA India’s per-capita emissions double by 2030, but remain well below OECD levels Reference Scenario: Per-Capita Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions tonnes of CO 2 per person OECD Other developing countries India

© OECD/IEA Coal remains the backbone of India’s power sector Reference Scenario: India’s Electricity Generation Mix TWh Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass Other renewables

© OECD/IEA Alternative Policy Scenario Key Trends in India

© OECD/IEA Global Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Global emissions will increase by 57% in the Reference Scenario, but they level off in the Alternative Policy Scenario billion tonnes (Gt) Reference Scenario 42 Gt Alternative Policy Scenario 34 Gt 19% 27 Gt

© OECD/IEA New policies could cut energy demand by 17% in 2030 & boost the contribution of non-fossil fuels Alternative Policy Scenario: India’s Primary Energy Demand Compared with the Reference Scenario CoalOilGasNuclearHydroBiomassOther renewables Mtoe Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario

© OECD/IEA Most of the 27% reduction in CO 2 emissions comes from measures to improve energy efficiency Alternative Policy Scenario: India’s CO 2 Emissions Compared with the Reference Scenario Nuclear Renewables and biofuels Switching from coal to gas and improved efficiency on the supply side End-use electricity-efficiency measures End-use fuel-efficiency measures Gt of CO 2 35% 18% 5% 19% 24% Alternative Policy Scenario Reference Scenario

© OECD/IEA Higher demand-side investment is more than outweighed by lower capital needs on the supply side, especially in the power sector Alternative Policy Scenario: India’s Energy Investment Power generation Transmission Distribution Oil Coal Gas Demand-side investment Net savings billion dollars (2006) Change in Cumulative Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure Compared with the Reference Scenario,

© OECD/IEA Households spend a lot less on fuel, thanks mainly to more efficient cars & electrical appliances Alternative Policy Scenario: India’s Annual Energy-Related Expenditure per Household Domestic needsTransport services dollars (2006) Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario

© OECD/IEA Summing Up India, like China, is one of the emerging giants of the world economy & international energy markets India’s energy demand is set to rise sharply absent new policies Imports of oil, gas & coal & emissions of CO 2 and local pollutants are set to carry on rising Consequences for energy security & climate change are alarming Challenge for India, as for all countries, is to achieve transition to a more secure, lower carbon energy system Strong commitment needed to implement policies & create an attractive investment environment

© OECD/IEA ppm Stabilisation Case

© OECD/IEA CO 2 Emissions 450ppm Stabilisation Case By 2030, emissions are reduced to some 23 Gt, a reduction of 19 Gt compared with the Reference Scenario Gt of CO 2 CCS in industry CCS in power generation Nuclear Renewables Switching from coal to gas End Use electricity efficiency End Use fuel efficiency Reference Scenario 450 Stabilisation Case 27 Gt 42 Gt 23 Gt Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions

© OECD/IEA ppm Stabilization Case - Electricity Generation By % of coal fired (310 GW – some 620 plants) and 13% of gas fired power production will be from plants with CCS

© OECD/IEA WEO 2007 Cumulative Investments in Electricity Generation CCS absorbs 1.5 trn US$ (20%) of total cumulative investments ( ) for power generation in 450ppm stabilisation case

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE IEA Draft Conclusions and Recommendations on CCS (1) For achieving stabilization of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere globally, CCS is part of technology portfolios in current scenarios Demonstrating CO2 Capture and Storage and Bridging the Financial Gap  Commit at least 20 industrial size demonstration projects by 2010; start broad deployment by 2020 Taking Concerted International Action  Build capacity, share information, create financial support  Include CCS in the CDM in December 2008

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE IEA Draft Conclusions and Recommendations on CCS (2) Create a Value for CO2 for Commercializing CCS  Governments should introduce appropriate instruments, such as emissions trading or tax treatment by 2010 Establishing Legal and Regulatory Frameworks  Needed by 2010, for safe, large-scale storage of CO2 Communicating with the Public  Critical to CCS deployment  Needs to be fostered, resources to be dedicated

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE IEA Draft Conclusions and Recommendations on CCS (3) Infrastructure  Planning needs to be started when pilot projects become operational. Transboundary effects need to be taken into account Retrofit with CO2 Capture  The IEA believes that any developer of a new fossil fuel power station, considering the future value of investments, should have regard to what might be required for retrofit with CCS and should avoid steps that might make retrofit unnecessarily difficult. Some developers have adopted such product policies. Monitoring and Assessment

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Carbon Capture and Storage Current IEA Deliverables Report on Capture-Ready Plants (IEA GHG Programme ) 3 workshops on near term opportunities Legal Aspects of Storing CO2 (book, launched 22 June 2007) CO2 capture and storage: a key CO2 abatement option (book - early 2008) Input to key national and international events Recommendations to the G8 in 2008

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Ideas for the Way Forward IEA will Provide further technology roadmaps Assess and monitor implementation Assist in facilitating implementation Contribute to international activities on legal and regulatory issues Conduct further analysis of potential and scenarios taking into account current national programmes