Presentation on theme: "World Energy Perspectives and Consequences for Europe"— Presentation transcript:
1 World Energy Perspectives and Consequences for Europe Claude MandilExecutive DirectorInternational Energy AgencyFIIA EU-Presidency Lecture SeriesHelsinki, 3 May 2006
2 Business-as-usual Scenario 2 0004 0006 0008 00010 00012 00014 00016 00018 0001970198019902000201020202030MtoeOilNatural gasCoalNuclearpowerOther renewablesHydroIn the Reference Scenario, based on current trends, global energy demand will rise by 52 % by 2030
3 Sustainable for the World nor Europe! This is NotSustainable for the World nor Europe!
4 World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Global emissions grow 62% between now & 2030, with developing countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s
5 EU CO2 Emissions in the “Business-as-usual” Scenario 1990 = MtEU emissions will be 9% and 20% above 1990 levels by 2010 and 2030 respectively
6 Share of OPEC and CIS in Global Oil and Natural Gas Supply
7 Electricity Deprivation In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be1.4 billion people without electricity
9 Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios Policies that governments are already considering – but have not yet enacted – would cut CO2 emissions by 16% in 2030
10 Energy efficiency offers Energy Efficiency Has A Key Role To Play And Is Available In The Short TermEnergy efficiency offerssubstantial energy and greenhouse gas savings at low or negative costenergy security and reliability benefitsenhanced business competitiveness and social welfareCompact Fluorescent LampsHigh performance buildingsLED traffic lightsLeast life-cycle cost appliancesABCDEFGEfficient information and communication technologiesReducing standby power consumptionSuper windows & daylightingLabelling and certification
11 Avoiding 1 Billion Tons of CO2 per Year CoalReplace 300 conventional, 500-MW coal power plants with “zero-emission” power plants, which means…..CO2 SequestrationInstall 1000 Sleipner CO2 sequestration plantsWindInstall 200 x current US wind generationSolar PVInstall 1300 x current US solar generationNuclearBuild GW power plantsEfficient LightingReplace ~95% of incandescence lighting (i.e. phase out)Adapted from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004
12 -- from “G8 Gleneagles Communiqué” “We will act with resolve and urgency to meet ourshared multiple objectives of reducing greenhouse gasemissions, improving the global environment, enhancingenergy security and cutting air pollution in conjunctionwith our vigorous efforts to reduce poverty“-- from “G8 Gleneagles Communiqué”
13 The IEA’s Contribution to the Gleneagles Plan of Action (Examples) Concrete Measures to Raise Energy Efficiency:Limit Standby Power Use to 1-WattA Fuel-Efficient Tire ProgramEfficiency standards for television “set-top” boxesMore Efficient LightingEnergy Technology PerspectivesA new publication providing scenario analysis of the potential of energy technologies to 2050How much can different technologies deliver?By when can they deliver?What barriers need to be overcome?This (and other) work will be considered by G8 Leaders in the lead up to the St. Petersburg Summit
14 The EU Green Paper“A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure Energy”Identifies six key areas where action is necessary:Competitiveness and the internal energy marketDiversification of the energy mixSolidaritySustainable developmentInnovation and technologyExternal policyThe Spring European Council and the European Parliament are invited to react to the PaperThe Commission will then table concrete proposals for actionEnergy security and Energy efficiencyAdequate and timely investmentDeveloping a truly internal market
15 The EU Green Paper The Proposals could be improved by: Norms and standards: Taking a stronger stance in terms of the use of norms and standards to obtain end-use energy efficiency improvementsRenewables: Paying more attention to the costs of setting overly ambitious renewables targets and putting more focus on improving their cost-competitiveness through R&DA European regulator: Giving real consideration to the bold proposal of establishing a new regulator for cross-border investment and trade issues
16 What a wonderful challenge for the Finnish Presidency!