US Economic Overview James F. Smith, Ph.D. SIOR Chief Economist MIPIM 2004.

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Presentation transcript:

US Economic Overview James F. Smith, Ph.D. SIOR Chief Economist MIPIM 2004

Chart 1: Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls (USA) Million Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan 04 Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 2: Manufacturing Employment (USA) Million Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan 04 Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 3: Manufacturing Industrial Production (USA) Index (1997 = 100) Source: Federal Reserve Board Jan 04 Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 4: Manufacturing Share of GDP (USA) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2003Q4 Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 5: Household Employment (USA) Million Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan 04 Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 6: Total Exports and Imports: Goods and Services (USA) $Billion Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2003Q4 Exports Imports Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 7: Exports - Imports: Goods (USA) $Billion Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2003Q4 Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 8: Exports - Imports: Services (USA) $Billion Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2003Q4 Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 9: Total Exports - Imports: Goods and Services (USA) $Billion Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2003Q4 Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 10: Trade Weighted US Dollar vs. Major Currencies Index (March 1973 = 100) Source: Federal Reserve Board Feb 04 Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 11: Yields on 10-year Treasuries (USA) Source: Federal Reserve Board Feb 04 Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 12: Corporate Profits* as a Share of GDP (USA) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2003Q3 *with inventory adjustment valuations and capital consumption adjustments Vertical lines indicate recession periods

Chart 13: Real Disposable Income Per Capita (USA) % change (year over year) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 2003Q4 Trend Growth = 3.5%