Interoperability at INM Experience with the SREPS system J. A. García-Moya NWP – Spanish Met Service INM SRNWP Interoperability Workshop ECMWF – January 2008

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop2 Ensemble for Short Range Surface parameters are the most important ones for weather forecast. Forecast of extreme events (convective precip, gales,…) is probabilistic. Short Range Ensembles can help to forecast these events. Forecast risk (Palmer, ECMWF Seminar 2002) is the goal for both Medium- and, also, Short-Range Prediction.

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop3 Errors of the short-range forecast Due to model formulation. Due to simplifications in parameterisation schemes. Due to uncertainty in the initial state. Special for LAMs, due to errors in lateral boundary conditions. Due to uncertainties in soil fields (soil temperature and soil water content, …).

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop4 SREPS I Multi-model approach (Hou & Kalnay 2001). Stochastic physics (Buizza et al. 1999). Multi-boundaries: From few global deterministic models. From global model EPS (ECMWF). SLAF technique (Hou & Kalnay 2001).

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop5 Multi-model Hirlam ( HRM from DWD (German Weather Service). MM5 ( UM from UKMO (Great Britain Weather Service). LM (COSMO Model) from COSMO consortium (

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop6 Multi-Boundaries From different global deterministic models: ECMWF UM from UKMO (UK Weather Service) GFS from NCEP GME from DWD (German Weather Service) CMC (Canadian Met Centre, ongoing work)

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop7 SREPS at INM Mummub: Multi-model Multi-boundaries 72 hours forecast two times a day (00 & 12 UTC). Characteristics: 5 models. 4 boundary conditions. 2 latest ensembles (HH & HH-12). 20 member ensemble every 12 hours Time-lagged Super-Ensemble of 40 members every 12 hours.

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop8 All models X bcs Whole Area Zoom over Spain

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop9 Multi-boundaries What can we get from using multi-boundaries from deterministic high resolution global models? Full advantage of Variational Data Assimilation Schemes in global models The best possible data for boundary conditions More spread for the short-range than using one single-model EPS What can we loose using data from different operational centres? Daily transmission of very large amount of data (full resolution global model fields). Dependence of different priorities at the different operational centres.

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop10 What do we need? Operational priority at the centres. DWD versus UKMO Development and maintenance of the interoperability software. Human resources for monitoring. Clear European Policy of commercial rights for using operational NWP data from other centres Improved exchange of NWP data among Met Services in Europe

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop11 Single BC’s Ensembles ( 4 members each)

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop12 Single model Ensembles (4 members each)

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop13 SLAF (Scaled Lagged Average Forecast) Integration area 194x181x N – 62.5 N / W – 20.0 E. 0.25º lat x lon horizontal resolution. ECMWF forecast as boundary files. Forecast up to 48 hours every 6 hours. Test Period of 20 days:

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop14 SLAF SLAF (AN  K ( AN - FCHH ), 0  k  1) Four different Ensembles with 9 members each. EXPInitial FilesBoundaries SLAF1Errors H+06No perturb. SLAF2Errors H+48No perturb. SLAF3No perturb.Errors H+48 SLAF4Errors H+48 Errors H+48 SLAF5Errors H+24 Errors H+24

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop15 Errors H+06 SLAF (AN  K ( AN - FCHH ), 0  k  1) Experiments: Control SFCAN = AN00 SF1 and SF2AN = AN00  1 (AN00-FC06) SF3 and SF4AN = AN00  3/4 (AN00-FC12) SF5 and SF6AN = AN00  1/2 (AN00-FC18) SF7 and SF8AN = AN00  1/4 (AN00-FC24)

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop16 Errors H+24 SLAF (AN  K ( AN - FCHH ), k=cte. ) Experiments: Control SFCAN = AN00 S11 and S12AN = AN00  1.5 (AN00-FC12) S13 and S14AN = AN00  1 (AN00-FC24) S15 and S16AN = AN00  0.75 (AN00-FC36) S17 and S18AN = AN00  0.50 (AN00-FC48)

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop17 Errors H+48 SLAF (AN  K ( AN - FCHH ), k=cte. ) Experiments: Control SFCAN = AN00 S11 and S12AN = AN00  2.5 (AN00-FC12) S13 and S14AN = AN00  2 (AN00-FC24) S15 and S16AN = AN00  1.5 (AN00-FC36) S17 and S18AN = AN00  1 (AN00-FC48)

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop18 Spread: BC’s vs. IC’s SLAF2 – Pert IC SLAF3 – Pert BC

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop19 Spread (cont.)

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop20 MM5 Multi-physics (5 members) Same initial and boundary fields. Different parameterizations schemes Convection (Grell, Kain-Fritsch, Betts- Miller) Boundary layer (MRF, ETA). Shallow convection “on” and “off”. Two months of parallel test ( – )

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop21 MSLP H+48

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop22 Cooperation in Europe INM  ARPA SIM  DWD

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop23 COSMO-SREPS (Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System) short range (up to 3 days) 16 LM runs at 10 km LM at 25 km on IFS IFS – ECMWF global by INM Spain LM at 25 km on GME GME – DWD global LM at 25 km on UM UM – UKMO global LM at 25 km on NCEP AVN – NCEP global P1: conv. scheme (KF) P2: turb. parameter 1 P3: time filter P4: turb. parameter 2

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop24 ARPA SIM  DWD UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED BY LATERAL BOUNDARIES (Ensemble ‘LBC’) transfer of uncertainty across scales in an 'ensemble chain' COSMO-DE is nested into the COSMO-SREPS (16 members, ARPA-SIM, Bologna) COSMO-SREPS uses a COSMO model version with 10km grid spacing and perturbed physics COSMO-SREPS is nested into the INM ensemble (INM, Spain) 16 members in total

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop25 Verification Verification exercise, April-June 2006: Calibration: with synoptic variables Z500, T500, Pmsl Response to binary events: reliability and resolution of surface variables 10m surface wind, 6h and 24h accumulated precipitation

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop26 Pmsl- ECMWF

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop27 Pmsl- Obs

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop28 ECMWF Reliab h Acc. Precip H+54 (1,5,10,20) mm Reliab. - 6 h Acc. Precip H+24 (1,5,10,20) mm

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop29 Observations Reliab. - 6 h Acc. Precip H+24 (1,5,10,20) mm Reliab h Acc. Precip H+54 (1,5,10,20) mm

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop30 ROC curves – 24 h Acc Precip (1, 5, 10 & 20 mm) ECMWF Observations

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop31 ECMWF - Analysis ROC 10 m wind H+24 (10,15,20) m/s Reliability

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop32 Observations 10 m wind H+24 (10,15,20) m/s Reliability ROC

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop33 European Climate Networks 24 hours acc. precipitation (from early morning). From Spain, Germany, France, UK, … More than 12,000 observations every day.

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop34 Reliability & Sharpness Good reliability according to thresholds (base rate) forecast length No Under- sampling

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop35 BMA 500 hPa Temperature (T500) & Geopotential (Z500) 3, 5 and 10 days of training period 3 months of calibration (April, May and June of 2006) 24, 48 and 72 hours forecast 10m Wind speed (S10m) 3, 5, 10 and 25 days of training period 1 month for S10m (April 2006) 24, 48 and 72 hours forecast Calibration using TEMP and SYNOP obs over Europe Calibration and bias correction: BMA

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop36 RESULTS MULTIMODEL BMA 3 T. DAYS BMA 5 T. DAYS BMA 10 T. DAYS

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop37 RESULTS MULTIMODEL BMA 3 T. DAYS BMA 5 T. DAYS BMA 10 T. DAYS

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop38 RESULTS MULTIMODEL BMA 3 T. DAYS BMA 5 T. DAYS BMA 10 T. DAYS BMA 25 T. DAYS

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop39 RESULTS BMA 3 T. DAYS BMA 5 T. DAYS BMA 10 T. DAYS BMA 25 T. DAYS

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop40 WEIGHTS TIME SERIES HRM HIRLAM LOKAL MODEL MM5 UM

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop41 WEIGHTS TIME SERIES HIRLAM

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop42 WEIGHTS TIME SERIES HIRLAM

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop43 WEIGHTS TIME SERIES HIRLAM

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop44 Conclusions A Multi-model-Multi-boundaries Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (MMSREPS), has been develop at the INM- Spain. Taking advantage of using IC’s & BC’s from different high resolution global models. Nice spread in the short-range, but … Daily transmission of very large amount of data (full resolution global model fields). Dependence of different priorities of the different operational centres. Good cooperation across Europe: UKMO, DWD, COSMO  INM INM  ARPA – SIM  DWD

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop45 Weaknesses of the interoperability project Development and maintenance of interface software. Commercial policy of NWP data across Europe. Easy exchange of software among Met Services. No model is better than others every time and everywhere Improved exchange of NWP data and software among Met Services in Europe

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop46 Questions

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop47 Analysis ECMWF December, at 18 UTC

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop48 ECMWF - OPR Comparison H+42 HIRLAM ECMWF

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop49 ECMWF - OPR Comparison H+30 HIRLAM ECMWF

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop50 ECMWF - OPR Comparison H+18 HIRLAM ECMWF

ECMWF, January 2008SRNWP Interoperability Workshop51 ECMWF - OPR Comparison H+6 HIRLAM ECMWF