1. Recent Experiences with the INM Multi-model EPS scheme García-Moya, J.A., Callado, A., Santos, C., Santos, D., Simarro, J., B Orfila. Modelling Area – Spanish Met Service INM EWGLAN/SREPS meeting Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss 9-12 October 2006

2. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Outline Introduction SREPS system at INM Monitoring and postprocessing Verification against observation vs Verification against analysis Further Work and Future of SREPS Conclusions

3. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Introduction Triggering and Consolidating INM SREPS NWP plan, (April 1999) SAMEX. (Summer 2000) Global boundaries; LAMs. 2000-2004 Cray X1E. (2001-2005) Gathering the team

4. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Ensemble for Short Range Surface parameters are the most important ones for weather forecast. Forecast of extreme events (convective precip, gales,…) is probabilistic. Short Range Ensemble prediction can help to forecast these events. Forecast risk (Palmer, ECMWF Seminar 2002) is the goal for both Medium- and, also, Short-Range Prediction.

5. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH What do we need? Enough computer power. Research Following recommendations of the workshops. Technical difficulties. Large storage system. Database software (MARS like ECMWF). Post-processing and graphics software. Enough staff for maintenance and monitoring. Verification software.

6. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH SREPS at INM 72 hours forecast four times a day (00, 06, 12 y 18 UTC). Characteristics: 5 models. 4 boundary conditions. 4 last ensembles (HH, HH-6, HH-12, HH-18). 20 member ensemble every 6 hours Time-lagged Super-Ensemble of 80 members every 6 hours.

7. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Multi-model Hirlam (http://hirlam.org). HRM from DWD (German Weather Service). MM5 (http://box.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/). UM from UKMO (Great Britain Weather Service). LM (Lokal Model) from COSMO consortium.

8. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Multi-Boundaries From different global deterministic models: ECMWF UM from UKMO (Great Britain Weather Service) AVN from NCEP GME from DWD (German Weather Service)

9. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH The team José A. García-Moya. Carlos Santos (Hirlam, verification & graphics, web server). Daniel Santos (MM5, Bayesian Model Average). Alfons Callado (UM & grib software). Juan Simarro (HRM, LM and Vertical interpolation software).

10. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Thanks to… MetOffice Ken Mylne, Jorge Bornemann DWD Detlev Majewski, Michael Gertz ECMWF Metview Team COSMO Chiara Marsigli, Ulrich Schättler

11. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Current Ensemble 72 hours forecast twice a day (00 & 12 UTC). Characteristics: 5 models. 4 boundary conditions. 20 member ensemble every 12 hours

12. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH

13. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH HP Computer Cray X1e 16 nodes, 8 MSPs each ( ~2.4 Tf peak perf.) Deterministic Forecast SREPS Climatic runs

14. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Post-processing Integration areas 0.25 latxlon, 40 levels Interpolation to a common area ~ North Atlantic + Europe Grid 380x184, 0.25º Software Enhanced PC + Linux ECMWF Metview + Local developments Outputs Deterministic Ensemble probabilistic

15. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Monitoring in real time Intranet web server Deterministic outputs Models X BCs tables Maps for each couple (model,BCs) Ensemble probabilistic outputs Probability maps: 6h accumulated precipitation, 10m wind speed, 24h 2m temperature trend Ensemble mean & Spread maps EPSgrams (work in progress) Verification:Deterministic & Probabilistic Against ECMWF analysis Against observations

16. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Monit 2: all models X bcs

17. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Monit 3: All Prob 24h 2m T trend

18. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Monit 4: Spread - Emean maps

19. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Case Study 2006061000 More than 15 mm/6 hours

20. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Verification The 2006 first half (6months) verification results against both references observations and ECMWF analysis are available. Calibration: with synoptic variables Z500, T500, Pmsl Response to binary events: reliability and resolution of surface variables: 10m surface wind, 6h and 24h accumulated precipitation

21. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Verification exercise Interpolation to a common area ~ North Atlantic + North Africa + Europe Lat-lon Grid 380x184, 0.25º ~180 days (Jan1 to Jun30 2006). Two different references: Analysis: ECMWF (6h and 24h det fc for Acc. Prec.) Observations: TEMP & SYNOP Verification software ~ ECMWF Metview + Local developments Deterministic scores Synoptic variables: Bias & RMSE for each member & Ens Mean Probabilistic ensemble scores Synoptic variables: Calibration Surface variables: Response to binary events

22. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Probabilistic ensemble scores Ensemble calibration: Synoptic variables: Z500, T500, Pmsl Scores: Rank histograms Spread-skill

23. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Rank histograms: examples Large spread Small spread Over prediction Under prediction Well calibrated

24. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Z500 Verification exercise: ~ North Atlantic + North Africa + Europe, Lat-lon Grid 380x184, 0.25º ~180 days (Jan1 to Jun30 2006). Analysis: ECMWF (6h and 24h det fc for Acc. Prec.) Observations: TEMP & SYNOP Synoptic variables (here Z500) spread-skill & rank histograms against observations, show the ensemble is under-dispersive, a bit under- forecasting The same against ECMWF analysis is very good

25. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Probabilistic ensemble scores Response to binary events: Surface variables: 10m surface wind (10,15,20m/s thresholds) 6h accumulated precipitation (1,5,10,20mm thresholds) 24h accumulated precipitation (1,5,10,20mm thresholds) Scores: Reliability, sharpness (H+24, H+48) ROC, Relative Value (H+24, H+48) BSS, ROCA with forecast length

26. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH 24hAccPrec ROC & ROCA Surface variables against observations show medium/quite good reliability and good resolution, degrading with threshold (clearly) and forecast length Here is shown 24h Accumulated precipitation performance in HH+30 forecasts: reliability with sharpness, ROC and ROCA, Brier Skill Score, Relative economic value. Verification against ECMWF analysis is much better

27. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Further work The ensemble performance could be improved with some post-processing, today under development (Flattery method): Bias correction Calibration using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)

28. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH ROAD MAP 2003-2004Research to find best ensemble for the Short Range Jun 04 – Jun 05Building Multimodel System Jun 05-Dec 05Mummub n/16 members Daily run non-operational Mar 06Mummub 16/16 members Once a day Jun 06Mummub 20 members Twice a day July 06Obs verfication September 0640 member lagged Super-ensemble Twice a day October 06BMA Calibration January 07Broadcast productsExperimental

29. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH FUTURE ISSUES Aladin and WRF as additional forecasting models Multi analysis from HIRLAM 3DVAR model and first guess from global model forecasts Alternative methods for multiple initial conditions Verification against observations (high resolution precipitation network over Europe) More post-process software (clustering) Statistical downscaling applied to SREPS outputs Convergence with GLAMEPS and regional THORPEX Data policy aspects

30. OCTOBER 2006 EWGLAM/SRNWP Meetings ZURICH Conclusions A Multi-model-Multi-boundaries Short Range Ensemble Prediction System (MMSREPS), is preoperational at INM Verification results (2006 first half), against both observations and ECMWF analysis have been obtained These first results look promising: Verification against ECMWF analysis shows very good results Verification against observations shows quite good results Ensemble is under-dispersive Good response to binary events Future of INM SREPS is still open