If mitigation is about energy, adaptation is about water Henk van Schaik Bonn 22 November 2007

 Water and Climate in The Netherlands  Water and climate globally  Common grounds

The Netherlands Below sealevel 55% Land / 60% Population 65% National Gross Product

Our common nightmare

Dutch Climate proofing “we will stay”  Research for knowledge to –Inform the public –Build political support: first Chamber motion on climate proofing –Develop adaptation plans

Netherlands case Generic scenarios Designed to span a wide range of possible climate change, suitable for many applications Dry summers Particularly dry summer conditions gain additional attention in Dutch climate adaptation policy Tailoring Process of tailoring is important for application in practice. Close multi-disciplinary cooperation is required

Restricted water capacity In whole area: restricted discharge capacity increase wet damage crops Increasing floods along IJssellake coast Stronger salinisation by saline seepage Increase salinization by saline seepage Vulnerable sea-defence Vulnerabilities Bulbs in dune-area

Prime Minister perspective…. “The climate is changing and we should make our country climate proof. The national government together with science, policy and other stakeholders” Jan-Peter Balkenende - Dutch Prime Minister, november 2005” Science - Policy interaction

1.Open debate Not: ‘for and by governments’ or a technocratic problem The National Adaptation Strategy Choices made in the process... 2.Ongoing, planned, future investments, plans, policies Not: just new investments and programmes 5.Mainstream in 10 year Not: blueprint or series of projects for the coming 50 years 4.Adaptation mainly by ‘combining work with work’ Not (yet): megaprojects just for adaptation 3.Innovation parallel to practice Not: sequential; first research, than policy frames, laws, implementation

Spatial consequences Bulb growth in theWieringermeer polder Inner space area used as extensive grassland and as resting place for geese New dynamic nature and more emphasis on recreation Reservation space for nature on a dynamical coast Bulb growth not anymore possible in inner dune area Extensivation peat grassland because of increasing water level from 60 up to 20 cm - surface

Costs:  The costs under current climate conditions billion Euro's per year (~ % of the national GDP).  For the coming 50 years, yearly costs about billion Euro's, which is ~ % of the national GDP.

RES6485 Water Collection, Tugela Ferry - 07/2002 WATER STRESS and POVERTY

Today’s global water challenges  Billions of people live in absolute poverty  More than a billion people lack access to safe water supply and sanitation  80 % of rural people’s livelihood depend on rainfed agriculture for subsistence farming.  Extreme rainfall variability causing frequent droughts and floods  Climate change comes on top …

 MDGs: Reduce by 2015 half the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water.  Reduce by half the population without access to basic sanitation by 2015  IWRM plans. International Water Policy Context

Extreme rainfall variability: the case of Kenya Kenya: extreme rainfall variability around mean 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%

Case of Ethiopia Rainfall & GDP growth: Ethiopia

Climate change

IPCC 4’th Assessment Report Expected  Expansion of drought affected areas  Higher flood risks  Decline of water supply from snow fed; decreasing water security for 1/6 of the world population  Increased coastal flooding related to sea level rise  Increased deaths because of floods, storms and droughts  Lower food security and malnutrition

IPCC 2007  Projected rainfall change versus Dec – Feb Jun - Aug

Impact of a drier and more variable climate on GDP growth Southern AfricaEast AfricaSahelCoastal West Africa historic variability -10% rainfall -10% rainfall, 50% increased s.d.

Mean T 0 ± 1 SD LJM,2002 Threshold New Mean Probability of high extremes Probability of low extremes An increase in mean and variance of run off imply a nonlinear increase in the probability of extremes, which requires to adjust design criteria

DECISION FRAMEWORK ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IWRM Food security Utilities Coastal delta’s Cities Energy Operating rules Water orders Water allocation Demand management Type of decision ClimateWeather Long Term (10-50 yrs)Medium Term (6-9 months)Short Term (0-10days) Decadal changesSeasonal ForecastsReal Time Strategic (policies, regulations, land use, water, development….) Infrastructure development policies Regulations Planning (infrastructures, vulnerabilities, etc. Infrastructure designs - Water allocations to agriculture -dam operations Operational (use of climate information) -dam operations

Assessing vulnerability (Climate atlas) 1. Water resources and ecosystems 2. Water supplies 3. Food security 4. Coastal delta’s 5. Megacities and urban areas 6. Health and sanitation 7. Energy

Reducing vulnerability –Communicate and use climate information (short, medium and long term) at all levels –Control water use (leakages etc.) –No regret measures including water storage –Diversify economy: away from rainfed dependence

Generic features 1.Make use of tailored climate information (short, seasonal and long term) 2.Carry out sector and local specific vulnerability assessments to identify hot spots 3.Adaptation 1.In context of development 2.Government, private sector and the public 3.Adapt existing and future policies and plans at national and local levels 4.Communication and Information 5.Innovation (technical, communication, governance etc.)

RES8552 WE NEED MORE THAN JUST LOOKING AT THE PROBLEM!

mitigate..... and adapt!Prevent

Thank you !