Cochise College Center for Economic Research Economic Review & Outlook Sierra Vista, AZ
Cochise College Center for Economic Research 2001 to 2003 End of technology boom Fed began cutting interest rates September 11 increased recession fears More rate cuts Federal funds rate hit 1% in June 2003 (and remained there until June 2004) Mortgage rates fell from 8.25% to 5.88% The housing boom
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Sierra Vista Area Mortgage Rates/Home Sales
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Sierra Vista Area Home Sales/Home Prices
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Sierra Vista New Home Construction SFR Permits
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Existing Home Sales/New Home Permits
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Recent Activity Sierra Vista New Home Permits –Jan-Feb 2008: 35 –Jan-Feb 2007: 16 Sierra Vista Area MLS Home Sales –Jan-Mar 2008: 192 –Jan-Mar 2007: 288
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Housing Market Outlook New home market may have bottomed out in 2007 Existing home market has not yet hit bottom Possible return to normal growth conditions in 2008/2009
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Commercial Construction
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Commercial Construction Outlook Expect a slowdown Current projects will be completed Recession fears will cause firms to delay new projects
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Are we in a recession?
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Inflation (CPI) Compared to same month previous year
Cochise College Center for Economic Research The Local Economy Cochise County and Sierra Vista
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Retail Sales Growth, 2007 Inflation Adjusted
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Sierra Vista Annual Retail Sales Growth Inflation Adjusted
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Retail Sales Outlook Sales figures for November and December are ominous Bad holiday shopping season or sign of a future trend? - Too early to tell Declining sales jibes with predictions of a national recession Market bears close watching in coming months
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth, 2007 Inflation Adjusted
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Sierra Vista Annual Restaurant & Bar Sales Growth Inflation Adjusted
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Restaurant and Bar Sales Outlook 4 th Quarter sales figures are worrisome Nonessential spending such as dining out is often one of the first things cut from family budgets Recessionary fears encourage families to cut spending Inflationary pressures force families to cut spending
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Accommodation Sales Growth, 2007 Inflation Adjusted
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Sierra Vista Annual Accommodation Sales Growth Inflation Adjusted
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Accommodation Sales Outlook Expect slowdown, partly due to higher base for comparison Declining dollar should lure international tourism High gas prices will alter tourism patterns Fort Huachuca unaffected by general economic conditions Trends toward the end of 2007 give cause for concern
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Employment
Annual Unemployment Rates
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Monthly Unemployment, 2007 Seasonally Adjusted
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County Labor Force/Employment
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County Monthly Labor Force/Employment, 2007
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County Monthly Nonfarm Job Growth
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Cochise County Nonfarm Job Growth By Industry, 2007
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Employment Outlook Continued slow job growth/job losses Rising unemployment
Cochise College Center for Economic Research Conclusion Nationally –Slowed economic growth –Rising unemployment –Inflation/stagflation Locally –Partial recovery of new home market –Existing home market will hit bottom in 2008, recover in 2009 –Slowdown of sales across categories in 2008 –Slowed job growth/job losses and rising unemployment –Slowed population growth
Cochise College Center for Economic Research