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2. MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010-2015 MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010-2015 NATIONAL TRENDS MISSISSIPPI TRENDS  EMPLOYMENT  INDUSTRIES  STATE BUDGET

3. National Economy in 2010  Recent profits, equipment spending strong  Private sector jobs being added  Inflation not a problem; oil prices moderate  Exports growing Stimulus spending slowing Consumer, business spending tentative Employment growth slow Housing not yet on upswing Toxic assets remain on financial books

4. Mississippi Economy in 2010  Housing, financial bubbles less severe  Job loss slowing, retail sales improving  Tax revenues stabilizing  Major projects boost spending  Some of $2.8 billion stimulus to MS remains Uncertainties, unemployment impacting consumers Construction, manufacturing hit hard Tax revenues low relative to state budget Long-term challenges on hold

5. MS Employment: Comparing Periods of Contraction 5 Employment is indexed to month of Peak Employment Level Months From Peak Employment: Zero is the Peak

6. Mississippi versus U.S. Employment Index Quarterly Data Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.

7. Mississippi Employment Growth As of July,Year-to-Date Versus 2009 Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.

8. Mississippi Employment Growth July 2009 versus July 2010 Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.

9. Unemployment Rates, Mississippi Urban Areas Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

10. Gulf Coast Employment July 2010 versus August 2005 Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.

11. MS Regains 2000 Employment Level In 2015 Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.

12. Employment By Sector 2010, MS vs. U.S. (Percent) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

13. Construction Employment, Coast and Rest of Mississippi, 2005-10

14. MS And US Housing Market % Change 2007:Q2 – 2009:Q2

15. Mississippi Housing Market % Change 2009:Q1 – 2010:Q1

16. Value of Housing Building Permits Mississippi, Aug. 2008 - July 2010

17. Foreclosures and Past Due Payments Mississippi Housing Market Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.

18. Major New Projects Port at Gulfport $570 million Schulz Extruded Products $300 million Enterprise for Innovative Geospatial Solutions $279 million Geospatial Solutions $279 million Twin Creeks Technologies $175 million Toyota Auto Plant $1.3 billion LNG Project $1.1 billion Severstal Expansion $500 million Keesler Air Force Project $950 million Source: Mississippi Authority Development

19. Mississippi Retail Sales August 2008 to July 2010 Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.

20. Transfers to General Fund August 2008 to August 2010 Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.

21. Growth in General Fund Transfers FY2009 versus FY2010

22. Growth in State General Fund Transfers ( August 2009 versus August 2010) SOURCE: MS Dept of Revenue.

23. FY2011 GROSS STATE PRODUCT $93.1 billion MISSISSIPPI BUDGET $19.1 billion Federal Funds $9.3 b. Federal Funds $9.3 b. State-Source Spec. Funds $5.4 b. State-Source Spec. Funds $5.4 b. State General Fund $4.4 b. State General Fund $4.4 b. Source : MS Dept of Finance & Admin.

24. Economic Forecast 2009 to 2010 (Percent Change)

25. Economic Forecast 2010 to 2011 (Percent Change)

26. Projected and Past Employment Growth MS and US Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.

27. Projected and Past Output Growth MS and US Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.

28. Employment Forecast by Sector (average annual rate of change ) Source: MS Center for Policy Research and Planning.

29. WILL THIS CRISIS BE AN OPPORTUNITY LOST?  Financial Sector: Transparency & Accountability  Restructuring: Health, Energy  Social Safety Net  State Budget: Performance-Based Budgeting, Policymaking Capacity, Budgeting, Policymaking Capacity, Tax Reform Tax Reform

30. EDUCATION AND THE SKILL GAP 29% of persons in U.S. from 25 to 64 years old have a bachelor’s degree or higher Only 20% of persons from 25 to 64 years old in Mississippi have a bachelor’s degree or higher SOURCE: U.S. Census and U.S. Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2007.

31. SOURCE: PUMS Dataset, 2000 Census. Fighting Poverty: Education and More Required

32. IN SUMMARY IN SUMMARY Starting climb from bottom  Jobs, state revenues stabilizing  US, world growth will be a positive  Major projects on-line Long-term challenges remain Long-term challenges remain  Ability to innovate, compete  Education, research  State budget, health, energy, social issues

33. MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK and MISSISSIPPI’S BUSINESS at www.mississippi.edu/URC www.mississippi.edu/URCwww.mississippi.edu/URC Join MS Economy Listserve: Join MS Economy Listserve: contact contact mhill@mississippi.edu mhill@mississippi.edu University Research Center University Research Center