1. 2000 Economic Outlook Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference April 28, 2000

2. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 2000 Economic Outlook 1999 Year in Review Business cycle expansion signals clear end to growth recession1999 Year in Review 2000 Economic Outlook *US economic expansion continues amazing run *Japanese economy showing some signs of growth *Hawai’i economic engine firing on all cylinders

3. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 1999 Year in Review Visitor Industry Returns to Growth *Decline in eastbound arrivals slows *Westbound arrivals growth strong *Room rates rise 1.7 %

4. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 1999 Year in Review Construction Sector Bottoms Out *Real contracting tax base still falling in 99 *Home resales continue strong *Permits growth signals rebound in construction

5. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 1999 Year in Review Job Growth Returns *Non agricultural jobs growth best in six years *Employment growth picks up *Unemployment nears US average by year end

6. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 1999 Year in Review Expanding Economy Grows Real Tax Base *Retail tax base grows with visitor industry *Hotel tax base down in real terms *Overall tax base expanding more slowly than income

7. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 1999 Year in Review Income Growth and Prices *Nominal income growth exceeds 2% for third year *Inflation returns to islands *1999 real income growth likely to exceed 2%

8. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Year 2000: Global Outlook US Fairytale Expansion Continues To Set Records *No clear signs of end to expansion with consumer and business spending strong *Inflation still moderate Japanese Economy Recovering? *Real GDP grew by just 0.3% in 1999 *Government spending 47% of 1999 growth *Business expectations, capital spending, and profit rates improving

9. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO US Income Growth Strong Japan ? We ’ re Still Waiting

10. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 2000 Economic Outlook: All Sectors Contribute to Growth Visitor growth expected to exceed 1999 Real contracting will expand at 5% rate Job and employment growth strengthens Real income to grow at 2.6% Inflation will accelerate to 1.8% rate

11. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Visitor Arrivals Growth Will Exceed 1999

12. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Expected Contracting Growth Strongest in 10 years

13. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Labor Market Firms

14. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Moderate Real Income Growth Continues

15. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO Honolulu Inflation Still Playing Catch Up

16. Hawaii Economic Association Conference April 28, 2000 http://www2.hawaii.edu/~UHERO 2000 Economic Outlook