1. Economic Conditions and Outlook
Fiscal Management Council
Ken Heaghney
Oct. 2, 2017

2. Synchronized Global Growth
Reasons for Optimism
Synchronized Global Growth

3. Consumer Confidence is High
Reasons for Optimism
Consumer Confidence is High

4. Business Confidence is High
Reasons for Optimism
Business Confidence is High

5. Stock Market at All Time High
Reasons for Optimism
Stock Market at All Time High

6. Is the Economy Poised for Much Faster Growth? Or More of the Same?
Pace of recovery has been modest (and the recovery is getting old)
Full employment in view
Real economy (consumers, manufacturers, service industries) is on solid footing
Housing recovery is slow
Financial conditions - unwinding quantitative easing

7. Slow Pace of Recovery in Real GDP Growth

8. Non-Farm Employment is Also Lagging

9. As is Real Disposable Income

10. Current Recovery/Expansion is Getting Old
Mean = 58.4 months

11. Is the Economy Poised for Much Faster Growth? Or More of the Same?
Pace of recovery has been modest (and the recovery is getting old)
Full employment in view
Real economy (consumers, manufacturers, service industries) is on solid footing
Housing recovery is very slow
Financial conditions - unwinding quantitative easing

12. US Employment Growth is Sturdy

13. Georgia Employment Growth is Strong

14. Georgia Pace of Growth Much Quicker than for US

15. Georgia Hiring is Well-Diversified Across Sectors

16. And Across Metro Areas

17. Georgia Wage Growth has Accelerated

18. Unemployment is Very Low

19. Broader Measures of Unemployment Still Show Slack

20. Long-Term Unemployment is Still High

21. Labor Force Participation has Bottomed But is Still Low

22. Is the Economy Poised for Much Faster Growth? Or More of the Same?
Pace of recovery has been modest (and the recovery is getting old)
Full employment in view
Real economy (consumers, manufacturers, service industries) is on solid footing
Housing recovery is very slow
Financial conditions - unwinding quantitative easing

23. Consumer Spending Growth is Decent

24. But the Car Sales Boom is Over

25. Real Disposable Income Growth has Been Weak

26. Consumer Borrowing to Fund Spending Growth has been Accelerating

27. Business Investment has Started to Recover after Weakness Due to Oil and Dollar

28. Port Shipments have Picked Up

29. ISM Index for Manufacturing is Strong

30. Is the Economy Poised for Much Faster Growth? Or More of the Same?
Pace of recovery has been modest (and the recovery is getting old)
Full employment in view
Real economy (consumers, manufacturers, service industries) is on solid footing
Housing recovery is slow
Financial conditions - unwinding quantitative easing

31. Recovery in Housing Starts has Slowed

32. Housing Sales have Also Slowed

33. Home Prices Continue to Increase

34. Is the Economy Poised for Much Faster Growth? Or More of the Same?
Pace of recovery has been modest (and the recovery is getting old)
Full employment in view
Real economy (consumers, manufacturers, service industries) is on solid footing
Housing recovery is slow
Financial conditions - unwinding quantitative easing

35. Fed has Begun Raising Policy Interest Rate – Long Term Rates are Still Low

36. Inflation is Low and Declining

37. Planned Withdrawal of Monetary Accommodation

38. Summary – More of the Same or Faster Growth Going Forward?
Sector
Outlook
Business Cycle
Continued Moderate Growth with Risks Gradually Building from Aging Cycle.
Labor Market
Approaching Full Employment – Faster Growth Dependent on Higher Labor Force Participation.
Real Economy
Wage and Income Growth Needed to Boost Demand Growth. New Policies to Improve Productivity?
Housing
Continued Modest Growth.
Financial Conditions
Higher Interest Rates.