Canada and the Road to Paris

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Presentation transcript:

Canada and the Road to Paris Lisa (Elisabeth) DeMarco Zizzo Allan DeMarco LLP lisa@zadllp.com +1.647.991.1190

Overview The road travelled: The road ahead Changing international and NA context The relevant energy context The road ahead Behind and inside the October draft Paris text Canada at the COP and future CMAs The critical role of “infranationals”

Changing International Context Science: IPCC 5th Assessment Report Extreme Weather G77, US-China, and TPP Carbon Pricing Renewables Energy: coal oil pipelines social license

Carbon Pricing - International Map from World Bank Group, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015 at 11. Have also excerpted just North America in next slide – keep whichever you prefer. World Bank Group, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015.

Canadian GHG Emissions from Energy Production Energy Production 2013 GHG Emissions GHG Category Emissions (MT CO2e) Stationary combustion sources Public electricity and heat production 88 Petroleum refining industries 18 Mining and upstream 94 Manufacturing industries 46 Construction 1 Commercial & institutional 29 Residential Agriculture & forestry 4 Total Stationary Sources 325 Transport 204 Fugitive sources 59 TOTAL 588 NTD – Page on carbon pricing. See if you can find a better map of just North America. Environment Canada, National Inventory Report: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada, 1990-2013.

Canadian and US GHG Emissions by Sector Canadian Emissions by sector U.S. GHG Emissions by Sector NTD – Page on carbon pricing. See if you can find a better map of just North America. Total: 6,673 MT CO2e Environment Canada, National Inventory Report: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada, 1990-2013. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2013.

The Road ahead for Canada, Paris and CMA 1? The Canadian dilemma – perception, reality, credibility Splinter of the Umbrella Group The critical role of sub/infra nationals ON, QC, CA (WCI) and BC CA in WCI and US CPP(?) The cost Key issues to follow in Paris

The Canadian Dilemma Annual emissions from the oil sands (55 MT CO2e in 2014) are less than the combined annual GHG emissions of the top three highest-emitting coal-fired power plants in the USA. US total: 6673 MT; Target: 26-28% below 2005 by 2025 Canada total: 726 MT; Target: 30% below 2005 by 2030 Mexico total: 748 (503); Target: 25% below BAU by 2030 China total: 9019; Target: 60-65% below 2005 by 2030 Map is from Govt of Canada. Couldn’t find data to back up the two coal-fired power plants in GA claim – but the three worst power plants in the USA emit more than the oil sands. Government of Canada, Oil Sands: A strategic resource for Canada, North America and the global market (2013). United States Environmental Protection Agency, Facility Level Information on Greenhouse Gases Tool.

Carbon Pricing - North America *US Clean Power Plan, Final Rule Aug. 3 2015* Map from World Bank Group, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015 at 11. World Bank Group, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2015, as modified by ZAD LLP to reflect CPP

Electricity Sector Emissions Intensity Based on best available data reflecting 2012 for Canada (Environment Canada) and 2011 for US states (U.S. Energy Information Administration).

Electricity Prices, Canada and US Hydro Quebec, Rate Comparison for Rates Effective April 1, 2014. U.S. Energy Information Administration (YTD October 2014). Prices converted at an exchange rate of $0.85 USD = $1 CAD.

Key Issues in Paris Legally binding nature: Treatment of: “contribution” or “commitment” NAPs Third party review and ongoing NDCs (every 5 years?) Treatment of: Developing countries – common but differentiated? Fossil subsidies Timing and degree target Role of markets