The Science of Sustainability NEW SCIENCE, OLD CONCERNS Alon Shepon

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Easter Island An island. hundreds of statues (Moai) and platforms (ahu) erected from quarries (1200-1650 AD). Pollen records show an existence of a forest declining in the last millennia. Inhabited by ~900 AD. By 1722 - barren with ~2000 inhabitants. What were the reasons for the civilization's collapse?

Sustainability Brundtland commision (UNED, 1983): [sustainable development… as meeting] “the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.“ Officially introduced at the World Congress "Challenges of a Changing Earth 2001" in Amsterdam by the International Council for Science. Its an interdisciplinary science of natural sciences, economy, engineering, humanities, ethics and more. It aims at providing ways to reduce human impact and align it with the Earth’s carrying capacity.

Brief history of footprints Malthus (1798) "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio...“ ,Malthus T.R. 1798. An essay on the principle of population. Tragedy of the Commons – Hardin (1962) Limits to Growth (1972) – World3 dynamic system model Vitousek et al. (1986) humanity’s appropriation of the biosphere Rees and Wackernagel (1994) Ecosystem Millennium report (2005) International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (2008)

Sustainable jargon Natural capital, carrying capacity (biocapacity), overshoot, ecosystem services, soft, and hard sustainability Kuznets curves

Food System Population has doubled in the last 50 years. ~ 9 billion by 2050. Increase in population and food consumption per capita  doubling (or even tripling) of food demand by 2050. ~1 billion people are hungry, >1 billion over fed, overweight. Arable land increase 1.2->1.5 billion ha from 1950-1999; Grain production has doubled. Doubling of food production either doubling of land or double in yield ~1/3 of the world's cropland abandoned during the past 40 due to erosion. USA food system: 50% of total land, 80% of fresh water, and 17% of fossil fuel. Can humanity achieve sustainable food production systems at the beginning of the 21st Century? Population crash: prospects for famine in the twenty first century, C. Shade and D. Pimentel Environ Dev Sustain,2009. Food Security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people, Godfay et al, Science, Vol 327, 2010 Sustainability of meat based and planr based diets and the environment, D. Pimentel and M. Pimentel, Am J Clin Nutr, Environmental and economic costs of soil erosion and conservation benefits, Pimentel et al, 1995, Science 267

Ecological economy Dynamics and co-evolution between the human economy and natural systems. Develop sustainable systems Open vs. Closed systems, subsets and wholes. Well-being and growth. Learning from ecosystems.

Ethics Ecocentrism vs. Anthropocentrism Ecosystem valuation, resource distribution Substitutability of natural resources

Industry Linear design and thought – cradle to grave Life Cycle Analysis

Material flow Analysis and Net Energy Analysis cradle2cradle Material flow Analysis and Net Energy Analysis Energy return on investment Emergy

Sustainable indicators Qualitative tools to assess sustainability There exist many indicators, ecological, economical, social or a combination of them. Let’s explore one of them: the ecological footprint - It transforms human impact into 6 land types - aggregates it into global hectares.

Sum Up A cycle, cyclic, stable over time A biomimcry concept  implement in human systems Transects all human disciplines Aligning the ecological footprint with Earth’s carrying capacity.

More info Please visit our website for more info and summaries: http://openwetware.org/wiki/Sustainability http://www.weizmann.ac.il/plants/Milo/index.ph p?page_name=energyANDsustainability