Crop vulnerability to drought in southern Brazil: initial insights into the potential impacts of Amazonian deforestation Warwick Manfrinato et al.

Team Warwick Manfrinato – Plant Environmental Intelligence Jean Ometto – IGBP – International Geosphere-Biosphere Program Luiz de Moura – Forestry Dept – ESALQ - University of Sao Paulo Maira O. Bezerra – CENA – University of Sao Paulo Thais Megid – ESALQ – University of Sao Paulo Patricia Gallo – Plant Environmental Intelligence Antonio Donato Nobre – INPA – Brazil Advisor

Some of the assumptions about local and regional climate

South America Low Level Jets Humidity from the Amazon and Sub-tropical Atlantic Adapted from Marengo (2007)

South and Southeaster States

By comparing the evolution of soybean and corn productivity in the Southern region of Brazil and comparing to the time series distribution of precipitation, it is possible to analyze the behavior of these two variables along a period of time. Based on the available data and looking at years with abrupt decrease in productivity, correlation is possible to be built. Moreover, the argument of the relationship with deforestation activities and pattern of precipitation in remote regions, specifically the Amazon Basin can offer an opportunity to cause-and-effect link to such productivity variations.

That argument and correlation is based on the indication and assumption that the hydrological cycles in intra-continental air movement and carry-over of humidity could be demonstrated in both precipitation information and economic performance of two of the most important agricultural commodities in Brazil. Based on climate and scientific framework previously described in this paper, and the importance of Southern region for the Brazilian agriculture, we make a case to link both regions and patterns of precipitation changes, production and productivity.

Method: Soy and Corn Productivity - Productivity data for soy and corn  Brazilian Government (CONAB, 2008) - South - Southeast - Mid-west - Brazil - Productivity data were calibrated/weighted with averaging the productivity of the 2 years right before and the 2 years right after the year when the break was observed. And then we calculate the rate of reduction that happened.

Data from productivity showed an abrupt decrease for both soy and corn during the following harvest –1985/1986 –1990/1991 –2004/2005 »Reason: precipitation related

Adapted from Agência Nacional das Águas (October, 2007) Soy

Adapted from Agência Nacional das Águas (October, 2007) Corn

2004/5 Drought: Soy Productivity Brazilian South faced huge losses in agriculture In the 2004/2005 soy harvest, in the state of RS, the net loss was estimated in R$ 544,50/hectare (≈ US$ 173,96/hectare), owing to a productivity reduction of 53% in comparison to the 2003/2004 harvest. In 2005, in the state of Paraná, 19,213 soy producer families, affected by the drought, were granted with R$ 500,00 (≈ US$ 159,74 per family) by the South Drought Funding Program (Programa Bolsa Seca Sul) (SEAB, 2005).

Method: rainfall/precipitation data Data for the South region of Brazil from Brazilian National Water Agency (ANA). 12 meteorological stations S/SE regions since 1941 Analysis considered life cycle of corn and soybean: critical moments Oct and April, allowing for evaluation at critical for productivity. Bias: soy cultivation starting at the same time of the year for the whole region Difficult access to data for the entire region. Soy cultivation from October (planting) to April (maturity): government agricultural zoning Finance from public banks will only be made available within this period Analyses productivity reduction years were: 1985/1986, 1990/1991 and 2004/

(a) Monthly rainfalls in South region of Brazil from (b) Detailed monthly rainfalls in South region from 1980 to Red = 1985/1986 Purple = 1990/1991 Blue = 2004/2005 Adapted from Agência Nacional das Águas (October, 2007) Small increasing tendency: data set from 1941 to 2006 Sub-set of , with a slight decrease or stable tendency

(a) Monthly rainfall just during the period between October and April from 1976 to (b) Detail of monthly rainfall just during the period between October and April from 1980 to 2007 Purple = 1985/1986 Green = 1990/1991 Red = 2004/2005 Adapted from Agência Nacional das Águas (October, 2007) Critical period sub-set data confirm tendency of increasing precipitation Apparent normality in years that productivity break occurred

Summary of soybean and corn productivity and rainfall at South region of Brazil and State of Rio Grande do Sul Precipt. data is a sub-set for Oct to April of each period

2005 Drought: Soy Productivity Brazilian South faced huge losses in agriculture In the 2004/2005 soy harvest, in the state of RS, the net loss was estimated in R$ 544,50/hectare (≈ US$ 173,96/hectare), owing to a productivity reduction of 53% in comparison to the 2003/2004 harvest. In 2005, in the state of Paraná, 19,213 soy producer families, affected by the drought, were granted with R$ 500,00 (≈ US$ 159,74 per family) by the South Drought Funding Program (Programa Bolsa Seca Sul) (SEAB, 2005). LOSSES: Cause and Effect

Conclusions? Questions? What indicators should we use? Precipitation????? Deforestation???? What others?

Concluding Remarks Warwick Manfrinato Ecosystem Services: - Opportunity Cost? - Sectorial policy? - Insurance model?