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National Climatic Data Center NCDC "State of the climate" 2008 search/2008/ann/bams/.pdf and.ppt.

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Presentation on theme: "National Climatic Data Center NCDC "State of the climate" 2008 search/2008/ann/bams/.pdf and.ppt."— Presentation transcript:

1 National Climatic Data Center NCDC "State of the climate" 2008 http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/re search/2008/ann/bams/.pdf and.ppt

2 Fig. 1.1. Geographical distribution of notable climate anomalies and events occurring around the planet in 2008.

3 Fig. 7.7. (a) Annual mean temperature anomalies for Mexico (°C, based on 1971–2000); (b) seasonal total precipitation anomalies (May–Oct) (percent of 1971–2000). (Source: National Meteorological Service of Mexico.) Fig. 7.8. (a) Feb mean temperature anomalies for Cuba (°C; based on 1971–2000); (b) annual total rainfall expressed as deciles (based on 1971–2000; preliminary analysis). (Source: Institute of Meteorology of Cuba.)

4 Fig. 7.11. (a) Annual mean temperature anomalies for South America for 2008 (°C); (b) annual total precipitation anomalies (% normal). The reference period is 1971–2000. [Sources: National Meteorological Services of Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Columbia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela, and CPTEC (Brazil). Data compilation and processing by CIIFEN 2008.] Fig. 7.12. Accumulated precipitation (mm) in southern Brazil during 20–25 Nov 2008. (Source: CPTEC/INPE.)

5 Fig. 7.13. Annual total rainfall deficit in central-east Argentina and Uruguay during 2008. The reference period is 1961 to 1990. (Source: CIIFEN 2008.) Fig. 7.14. Accumulated rainfall at Salto (Uruguay) during 2008 (brown) an accumulated normal (green). (Source: CIIFEN 2008.)

6 Fig. 7.23. Total rainfall anomalies over southern Africa for Nov 2007 to Apr 2008 (mm). The black box denotes areas that are climatologically wet during summer. (Source: NOAA.) Fig. 7.24. Annual mean temperature anomalies in Europe and over the North Atlantic, 2008 (°C, 1961–90 base period) based on CLIMAT and ship observations. [Source: DWD.]

7 Fig. 7.32. Anomalies of mean annual air temperatures averaged over the Russian Territory, 1939–2008 (against 1961–90 normals).

8 Fig. 7.33. Air temperature anomalies in Jan 2008. Insets show mean monthly and mean daily air temperatures in Jan 2008 at meteorological stations Marresalya, Anadyr’, and Ust’-Koksa.

9 Fig. 7.35. Air temperature anomalies in Dec 2008. Insets show mean monthly and mean daily air temperatures in Dec 2008 at meteorological stations Marresalya, Omolon, and Olekminsk.

10 Fig. 7.44. Winter mean temperature anomaly (°C) for Iran. (Source: IRIMO.) Fig. 7.45. Spring precipitation anomaly (percentage of normal) for Iran. (Source: IRIMO.)

11 Fig. 7.50. Mean annual temperature anomalies (ºC) over New Zealand, from 1853 to 2008 inclusive, based on between 2 (from 1853) and 7 (from 1908) long-term station records. The blue and red bars show annual differences from the 1971–2000 average; the solid black line is a smoothed time series. Fig. 7.51. Outgoing longwave radiation anomalies (W m −2 ) in the southwest Pacific for Apr 2008. Solid line indicates the location of the SPCZ. Dashed line indicates the normal location of the SPCZ in Apr.

12 Fig. 7.48. Australian mean annual maximum temperature anomalies (°C; 1961–80 base period) for 2008. Fig. 7.49. Australian annual rainfall deciles for 2008.

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14 Fig. 2.1. Global surface temperature anomalies with respect to the 1961 to 1990 average. (bottom) Mean of GISS, HadCRUT3 and NCDC; upper panel: difference between GISS, HadCRUT3, NCDC and the mean. Fig. 2.2. Year-by-year temperature rankings and 95% confidence limits for the HadCRUT3 temperature analysis. The main panel shows the 50 warmest years and the inset shows the full 159-yr record.

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17 Sulphates and aerosols complicate matters Sulphate emissions and aerosols from the combustion of fossil fuels, biomass burning, etc. have led to a cooling effect which is masking 1/3 to 1/2 of the warming effect. This cooling effect has regional variations and can lead to local and regional changes in weather patterns. Sulphates and aerosols last for only weeks to months in the troposphere, while greenhouse gases last for decades to centuries. Thus the clean-up of air pollution could allow additional global warming!

18 Ship tracks across the Pacific

19 Summary

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21 Scientific Conclusions Climate is changing all the time The greenhouse effect is real Upward trend in greenhouse gases from fossil fuel burning, agriculture, and deforestation Radiative properties of the atmosphere are being altered Surface temperatures are up 0.8 o C since 1890 Warming from both natural and human causes We are already committed to future warming Some of the warming is hidden by the effects of aerosols Rate of warming is unsustainable for humans and ecosystems The climate system will readjust in complex ways

22 REMEMBER Climate Change is real it is always changing from natural causes. The Greenhouse effect is real it is a physical fact it allows Earth to be habitable Global Warming is real The Earth is entering a super-interglacial Humans must reduce their impact on climate This is a hybrid scientific / social issue.


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