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Jurandir ZULLO Junior Effective use of agrometeorological systems and information Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers.

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Presentation on theme: "Jurandir ZULLO Junior Effective use of agrometeorological systems and information Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers."— Presentation transcript:

1 Jurandir ZULLO Junior jurandir@cpa.unicamp.br Effective use of agrometeorological systems and information Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

2 Presentation Outline  Brazilian Agricultural Zoning  Agrometeorological operational systems in Brazil – regional and national  Effects of climate change (IPCC) in Brazilian Agricultural Zoning

3 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Agricultural Zoning Agribusiness GDP in 2003: US$ 165 billion (30% GDP - US$ 500 billion) Agribusiness Exportations: US$ 30 billion (40%) 30% of jobs Grain production in 2003: 122 millions tons Program coordinated by the Department of Agriculture and EMBRAPA (National Institute for Agricultural Research) since 1995 Federal Farm Credit Policy US$ 8 billion (US$ 2.5 billion for small farmers)

4 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Main Objective Decrease the climate risks  dry spells during flowering and grain-filling (60%)  excessive rain during the harvest period (30%) Product Planting Calendars Crops: Corn, Soybean, Beans, Rice (Wheat, Sorghum, Fruits, Coffee) Periods: Dekad (10 days), Oct to Dec (Jan to Dec) Counties / Municipal districts Macro-regions: Central, Southeast and South (Northeast) Risk: less than or equal to 20%

5 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 < 25% 25% - 50% 50% - 75% 75% - 100% Probability of 10-days dry spells January - BAHIA

6 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 < 25% 25% - 50% 50% - 75% 75% - 100% Probability of 10-days dry spells February - BAHIA

7 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Methodology Simulation of cumulative water balance for different soil types, planting dates, cycle lengths, ground stations Decision criteria / Risk Analysis: a) WRSI during reproductive stage  Threshold Value (80% of all simulated years) WRSI: Water Requirement Satisfaction Index WRSI = actual / maximum evapotranspiration b) Excessive rain during harvest 50mm accumulated in 3 days of a 5-days period

8 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

9 Preliminary Data Collection Length of four growth stages (Initial, Vegetative, Reproductive and Maturity) for early and normal cultivars Length of total growing period Crop coefficient (Kc) Soil water holding capacity Rainfall Evapotranspiration

10 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

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12 Initial Stage Vegetative Stage Reproductive Stage Maturity Kc

13 LENGTH OF GROWTH STAGES RAINFALL CLIMATE RISK ZONING WRSI PET CROP COEFFICIENT COMPUTE ZONING CUMULATIVE WATER BALANCE SOIL TYPE PLANTING DEKAD Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

14 soybean 600.000 SIMULATIONS corn 2.500.000 SIMULATIONS beans 500.000 SIMULATIONS rice 400.000 SIMULATIONS wheat 450.000 SIMULATIONS

15 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Soybean Early Cultivar Clay Soil Dekad: Oct, 1 st Goiás (341.000km 2 )

16 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Soybean Early Cultivar Clay Soil Dekad: Nov, 1 st Goiás (341.000km 2 )

17 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Soybean Early Cultivar Clay Soil Dekad: Dec, 1 st Goiás (341.000km 2 )

18 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Soybean Early Cultivar Clay Soil Dekad: Nov, 1 st Minas Gerais (588.000km 2 )

19 Soybean Early Cultivar Clay Soil Dekad: Dec, 1 st Minas Gerais (588.000km 2 ) Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

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21 www.inmet.gov.br

22 www.agritempo.gov.br

23 Soil Water Content – São Paulo – Sep/16 – 20/2004

24 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Soil Water Content – São Paulo – Oct/15 – 19/2004

25 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Maximum Temperature – São Paulo

26 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Rainfall – São Paulo

27 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Frost Risk – Paraná

28 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 www.cpa.unicamp.br

29 Results Organization of federal farm credit policy and insurance Decrease of agricultural losses due to climate events (Insurance debt = US$ 637 million accumulated in 5 years) Even self-financed farmers are using the zoning Increase: productivity, production and use of technology Losses of US$ 33 millions in 2002: farmers growing corn during fall and winter in unsuitable (high risk) areas Frauds decrease and inhibition Availability of data for agricultural planning Demand for new crops, regions and periods

30 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Questions What can happen to agricultural zoning in next decades ? Will the suitable areas change in the case of new climate conditions ? (decrease ?, increase ?, migrate ?) Methodology Prepare new zonings simulating different climate conditions according to IPCC report (2001) Climate scenarios: Current, Increase of 1°C, 3°C and 5.8°C in Temperature and Increase of 15% in precipitation

31 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Climate Conditions Suitable for Coffee Production Average Annual Temperature: 18°C to 22°C (up to 23°C) Annual Water Deficit: 0mm to 100mm (up to 150mm) Absolute Minimum Temperature: > 1°C (Frost Risk)

32 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Total Area: 249.000km 2

33 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Total Area: 249.000km 2

34 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Total Area: 249.000km 2

35 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004 Total Area: 249.000km 2

36 Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

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52 Further Works Simulations for other crops Simulations for other states Use of other models and analysis of climate change Assessment of climate change

53 Jurandir ZULLO Junior jurandir@cpa.unicamp.br Effective use of agrometeorological systems and information Expert Meeting on Weather, Climate and Farmers Geneva, November 15-18, 2004

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64 Agricultural Losses - Seasons 91/92 and 92/93 Factors / causes: Dry spells during reproductive stage (flowering and grain- filling) - 60% Excessive rain during harvest - 30% (Planting after the first rainfalls of spring)

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