Prototype 1: status, contents and results

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool Introduction and demonstration of Prototype1 (PT1) tool Overall contents Overview of current PT1 tool Calculation of regional compliance levels Core models: CAPRI – MITERRA Input data on cross compliance (legal) implementation Output: –Environmental and economic impacts per scenario and differences between scenarios –Indirect impacts on biodiversity per scenario and differences between scenarios (derived from environmental and land use changes) –Potential effects of individual and combined measures on Biodiversity and landscape (expert judgement of the measure texts per MS/region).

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool All core model (CAPRI and Miterra) components with impact assessments (for 6 compliance level scenarios) Quantitative environmental, economic impacts of Nitrate and Animal registration Directives computed with Miterra-Capri model chain (19 environmental and ca. 50 economic impact indicators) Qualitative impacts of Nitrate Directive and Animal registration directives on intensity of land use (post-model calculation); Qualitative potential effectiveness (0/1/2/3) for biodiversity and landscape (difference in) for 17 SMR measures (Birds, Habitat, Nitrate dir) and 5 GAEC issues national and regional implementations (short names). Overall contents of current PT1 tool input and output

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool CCAT manager Overview of PT1 tool CCAT GISviewer CAPRI CCAT data explorer Computation of absolute and relative differences Indicator data per scenario (GDX-files) Per scenario: Abs. & rel. diff. versus 0 compliance Per impact indicator: values of all scenarios Biodiversity/landscape: potential effects of 22 measures (17 Birds/Hab/N dir + 5 GAEC issues) Miterra Data per scenario Stat. data Short name data

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool ABCD region degree of compliance Full compliance regional surface Compliance gap Voluntary compliance level 90% 100% 80% 60% 30% 0% Compliance and scenarios Baseline estimates of compliance (2005) simulated levels of compliance 75% 50%

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool Scenarios There are 6 compliance scenarios included in PT1: 0) Baseline compliance in 2005: estimated level, differs per Nuts 2 region (see box 1) 1) 50% gap closure: halve way between 2005 baseline and 100% compliance 2)0% compliance: voluntary level, 0% = minimum level, but is often higher 3)50% compliance: 50% = minimum level 4) 75% compliance: 75% = minimum level 5) 100% compliance: full compliance

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool Estimated degree of compliance of baseline (2005) 1)Take degree of compliance at member state level from other projects (data available from IEEP and Cross Compliance project) 2)Estimate upper and lower bound compliance level (based on national estimates 3)Estimate #farms, #livestock, #hectares at high risk of non- compliance 4)Spatial distribution of groups of farms (hectares, animals) at high risk over NVZ (relative land use in-/outside) 5)Calculate regional compliance rates based on 1), 2), 3) and 4).

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool Compliance level estimates national level Nitrate Directive (I) Country% of breaches (IEEP evaluation project) Compliance rates (%) (IEEP evaluation project) Compliance rates (%) (Cross Compliance- project) Compliance rates (%) CCAT Estimates for high risk farm group Austria5.590n.a.60 Belgium (F)0.2100n.a.60 Belgium (W)4.7100n.a.60 Bulgarian.i. 40 Cyprusn.i. 40 Czech Republicn.i. 40 Denmark1.2100n.a.60 Estonian.i. 40 Finland24.780n.a.40 France Germany Greecen/a n.a.40 Hungaryn.i. 40 Italy Irelandn.i. n.a.50 Latvian.i. 40 Lithuanian.i. 40 ……………

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool Identifying high risk farm group? Sub-obligations Nitrate Directive Characteristics farms at higher risk of non- compliance Data + estimation of higher risk group Balanced N-fertilizer application Animal N-balance >170 kg N/ha in NVZ N-balance: FSS data per (sectoral) farm group per Nuts2 (on animal type, number, land use types, UAA) & GAINS animal N- excretion factors (Nuts2) Maximum N-manure application (< 170 kg N/ ha) in NVZ Animal N-balance >170 kg N/ha in NVZ N-balance: FSS data per sectoral farm group per Nuts2 (on animal type, number, land use types, UAA) & GAINS animal N- excretion factors (Nuts2) Limitation to fertilizer application on steeply sloping grounds All farmland in NVZ in slopy land (>5% slope) Corine Land cover (arable+grassland) & Digital elevation model Growing winter crops (maintain vegetation cover during rainy periods) Farms with high share of cropping land FSS land use per sectoral farm type per Nuts2

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool Estimating % farms, animals, hectares non-compliant in NVZ Total farm population Average national compliance rate (IEEP, CC projects) High risk of non-compliance: - N balance>170 kg/ha -Land slopy -… Upper bound compliance rate Lower bound compliance rate Low risk of non-compliance: - N balance < 170 kg/ha - No slopy land -… Total farm population High risk of non-compliance: - N balance>170 kg/ha -Land slopy -… Low risk of non-compliance: - N balance < 170 kg/ha - No slopy land -… NUTS2 NVZ-NUTS2 Compliance rates: national estimates

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool Estimation compliance level results for Nitrate Directive

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool CCAT manager Overview of PT1 tool CCAT GISviewer CAPRI CCAT data explorer Computation of absolute and relative differences Indicator data per scenario (GDX-files) Per scenario: Abs. & rel. diff. versus 0 compliance Per impact indicator: values of all scenarios Biodiversity/landscape: potential effects of 22 measures (17 Birds/Hab/N dir + 5 GAEC issues) Miterra Data per scenario Stat. data Short name data

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool Core models CAPRI (market response model) MITERRA EUROPE Extended (simple meta-model)

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool CAPRI output used as input in environmental models Cross compliance obligations Changes in management Costs of compliance CAPRI: Market response 1) Changes in cropping shares 2) Change in livestock type/number MITERRA: emissions to: 1) Water 2) Air 3) Soil

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool CCAT manager Overview of PT1 tool CCAT GISviewer CAPRI CCAT data explorer Computation of absolute and relative differences Indicator data per scenario (GDX-files) Per scenario: Abs. & rel. diff. versus 0 compliance Per impact indicator: values of all scenarios Biodiversity/landscape: potential effects of 22 measures (17 Birds/Hab/N dir + 5 GAEC issues) Miterra Data per scenario Stat. data Short name data

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool Short name data Per country/region legal implementation texts for all SMR (excl. new MS) and GAECs (all MS) was collected –CIFAS project –Gaps filled Result: database with fields: – General description of SMR/GAEC (Level 1) – Specific description of measure (Level 2) – Specific description of management obligation (farmer) (Level 3) – Region code (National, Nuts 1, Nuts 2) – Land use type affected –Sensitive area affected –Impact fields (air, water, etc.) –Effectiveness score in relation to landscape and biodiversity (see next presentation)

Cross Compliance Assessment Tool Impact assessment results Results economic assessments (Markus Kempen) Results environmental assessments (Jan- Peter Lesschen) Results biodiversity and landscape assessments (Juan Oñate) After break: Demo of prototype 1 (Foppe Bouma)