1. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Projections of herd sizes with the CAPRI system - Wolfgang Britz - Institute for Agricultural Policy University of Bonn, Germany CAPRI Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact

2. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Content What is CAPRI ? CAPRI data base Data Sources Data Compilation Data Coverage The economic Model Structure Projection approach Some results

3. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen What is CAPRI ? Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact analysis on regionalised level (NUTS II) on whole agricultural sector: all outputs/inputs covered based on a quantitative economic modelling system developed and maintained by an independent network of research institutions mainly funded by DG-RSRCH framework programs

4. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen CAPRI Modelling system Modelling system consists of Regionalised data base Supply Module Market Module Exploitation and Reporting tools

5. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen CAPRI data base Combines consistently time series at EU/national/regional/farm type level on herds/acreages, production, market balances on prices, economic accounts on input & output coefficients on policy instruments

6. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Data sources As far as possible uniform sources EUROSTAT: market balances, slaughtering statistics, land use statistics, herd countings Farm Accounting Data Network: Production program for farm type module, Estimation of input demand functions Gaps closed by regional and national statistics Input/Output relations, emission coefficients etc. from different sources

7. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Data compilation Own “base model” ensures consistent and closed data base Gaps are closed and inconsistencies removed by simultaneous estimation techniques under constraints capturing consistency requirements

8. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Data coverage for Herd Sizes I Animal herds for dairy cows, other cows cattle raising (male & female calves, raising heifers) sows milk sheep & goat laying hens yearly averages over all available countings

9. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Data coverage for Herd Sizes II Slaughtered heads for calves fattening (male/female) male adult fattening (male/female) pig fattening sheep & goat fattening poultry fattening estimates regarding the length of production cycle allow calculation of herd sizes

10. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Consistency requirements Intertemporal flow model for herds: Slaughtered + herd size changes + exported animals = raised/born animals in t(-1) + imported animals Slaughter weight * slaughtered heads = production Market balances for meats, milk, eggs Fat and protein balances for milk and milk products Plausible number of siblings (cows, sows, mother sheep&goat) Male/Female relationship for calves Plausible slaughter weights and output coefficients

11. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Herd flow model for cattle Beef Veal Raising female Calves Fattening male Calves Breeding Heifers Milk Cows Suckler Cows Male adult cattle High/Low Fattening Heifers High/Low Fattening female Calves Raising male Calves Male Calf Young heifer Young bull Young cow Female Calf

12. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Ammonia Emissions Nitrogen from animals Crop N Need NH 3 Mineral NGrazing stable NH 3 storage NH 3 Organic N application NH 3

13. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Market Module Spatial Multi-Commodity Model 11 regional aggregates plus all EU MS States Young Animal Market Module Linked MS Programming Models Supply Module 200 Regional or 1050 Farm Type Programming Models Perennial Sub-Module Policy Modules CAP Premiums (base areas,...) Aggregated Supply & Feed demand Aggregation Herds Acreages PricesPremiums Exploitation Env. Indicators Welfare analysis FEOGA budget Modelling system

14. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Projections “Baseline”: developments of agricultural markets, prices, yields, input demand, cropping patterns, herd sizes... under continuation of current policy setting model mechanism + trend analysis + judgement + careful look at other projections model ensures closed balances for inputs and outputs (including nutrients, feed and young animals) and matching price developments

15. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Reporting Java based Mapping tool HTML reporting tools (XML + XSL) Tables in DBMS

16. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Stocking density with cattle heads/ha UAAR, average 1994

17. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Methane emissions from animals In kg/ha UAA, average 1998

18. CAPRI EU GHG Monitoring Workshop, 27th-28th February 2003, Copenhagen Methane emissions from animals Kg/ha UAA Percentage change, 2009/1998