1. Results of the environmental assessments with the CCAT-tool W. de Vries, J.P. Lesschen, J. Kros, M. Kempen and B.S. Elbersen Alterra, Wageningen UR and University of Bonn CCAT end-user meeting, 30 March 2010

2. Outline CCAT approach to predict environmental indicators Environmental indicators –Description and base line results –Comparison results with other studies Cross compliance measures Results environmental assessments –Effect of separate measures (graphs) –All SMRs and GAECs (maps of baselines and effects) Conclusions

3. Approach Existing models are further adapted and integrated into the CCAT tool Basis of the CCAT tool –Economic model CAPRI –Environmental assessment model MITERRA- Europe –Meta-models of the detailed biogeochemical models DNDC and EPIC, for a limited number of indicators and measures

4. CAPRI Excretion model MITERRA manure/fertiliser model MITERRA Livestock, landuse Excretion C, N, P, metals input to soil C, N, P, Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn housing model MITERRA Uptake model MITERRA uptake N, P, metals housing emission NH 3, N 2 O, CH 4 soil emission NH 3, N 2 O, CH 4 Soil module MITERRA DNDC metamodel Base line 2005 CC measures EPIC metamodel N leaching, runoff erosion

5. MITERRA-Europe A tool for integrated assessment of N, P and C budgets and emissions from agriculture in EU-27 at Member State and regional levels (NUTS-2) Developed for the European Commission Based on information from CAPRI and RAINS/GAINS Simple/rapid model Uniform approach for EU-27 Analysis of scenarios and measures

6. MITERRA-Europe Crop production: - Crop type - Cropped area - Management Groundwater & surface waters N inputs: N fertilizer BNF, N deposition Animal production: - Animal species - Animal number - Management N outputs: milk, meat, egg NH 4 + NO 3 - DON N part NH 3 N 2 O NO X N 2 Atmosphere N outputs: harvested crop NH 3 N 2 O NO X N 2 Atmosphere manure feed

7. MITERRA-Europe in CCAT tool Cross compliance obligations Changes in management Costs of compliance CAPRI: Market response 1) Changes in cropping shares 2) Change in livestock type/number MITERRA: emissions to: 1) Water 2) Air 3) Soil

8. CAPRI MITERRA-Europe Set of ND measures Per NUTS2 %  in: N fer, N am Cost due to  N: € (kg N ha -1 ) -1 4 Per NUTS2 %  in: #An, crop area 5 NO 3 le, NH 3 em, N 2 O em CH 4 em, N balance, P balance Per NUTS2: - Total costs € ha -1 - Environmental indicators CAPRI-Preprocessor Additional cost: € ha -1 2 1 1 2 3 6 7

9. MITERRA-Europe indicators Air: NH 3 emission N 2 O emission CH 4 emission GHG emission Water: N leaching N (sub-)surface runoff NO 3 concentration groundwater Soil: Soil carbon stock N balance P balance Metal balance (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn and Hg) Biodiversity: Critical N load exceedance (terrestrial ecosystems) N-concentration in surface water (aquatic ecosystems)

10. Nutrient soil balances N balance EU-27P balance EU-27

11. Metal balances EU-27

12. Comparison MITERRA results N 2 O: reported EU-27 to UNFCCCNH 3 : EMEP and NEC values

13. Measures: status/decisions Linkage SMRs/GAECs and proxy CCAT measures include: SMRs Nitrates Directive –8 SMRs evaluated by MITERRA-Europe –3 SMRs evaluated by DNDC –1 SMR evaluated by EPIC. SMRs Ground Water and Sewage Sludge Directive –1 measure related to heavy metals evaluated by MITERRA- Europe GAECs (focused on carbon sequestration) –3 GAECs (crop rotations, cover crops & zero tillage) evaluated by MITERRA. –2 GAECs (cover crops & zero tillage) evaluated by EPIC and DNDC.

14. Clustered Nitrates Directive measures Maximum manure N application (170 kg N/ha) Limitation to N application in winter and wet periods Limitation to N application on sloping grounds Manure storage with minimum risk on leaching Appropriate application techniques Buffer zones Growing winter crops (Balanced N fertilizer application)

15. Compliance levels Present compliance levels are related to the base line period 2005-2009. Full compliance is assumed 100%, unless impossible, using activities for the year 2005. Present compliance levels are based on investigations within CCAT.

16. Results environmental assessments with MITERRA-Europe

17. Effect of measures

18. Comparison scenarios

19. NO 3 concentration groundwater % diff. baseline vs 0-compl. baseline

20. N concentration in surface water % diff. baseline vs 0-compl. baseline

21. N 2 O emission % diff. baseline vs 0-compl. baseline

22. NH 3 emission NH 3 emission baseline % diff. baseline vs 0-compl.

23. Critical N load exceedance Exceedance CL baseline % diff. baseline vs 0-compl.

24. Metal balances Cd balance baseline % diff. baseline vs 0-compl.

25. Soil organic carbon stocks baseline abs diff. baseline vs 0-compl.

26. Results detailed environmental assessments with Meta models EPIC and DNDC

27. Limitations meta model assessments SMRs and GAECs evaluated by Meta models: do not include present compliance levels and possible future implementation levels per country are limited to 2 crops only, i.e. maize and barley are limited to 2 GAECs, i.e. cover crops and zero tillage Results thus show: a spatially detailed assessment for a theoretical situation (zero and full compliance) and a limited number of crops

28. DNDC: No tillage vs Tillage scenario: N 2 O

29. Rainfed Maize Cover/N fixing crop (clover) Expressed as % change with regard to baseline –Erosion –NO 3 leaching EPIC: Cover crop

30. Barley: no-till –Erosion –NO 3 leaching EPIC: No-till

31. Conclusions Impacts of CC obligations (SMRs) related to the Nitrates Directive: Impacts are highest on N leaching/runoff There is a small positive effect on NH 3 emissions, N 2 O emissions and carbon sequestration. Except for balanced N fertilization, the impacts are limited (<5%) on N leaching/N concentrations and very limited (<2%) for N emissions. The difference between baseline and zero compliance (what did we gain) is larger than between full compliance and baseline (what can still be gained). CC levels for the Nitrates Directive are already high

32. Conclusions CC obligations (GAECs) may significantly reduce erosion and to a lesser extent N fluxes Cross Compliance impacts are regionally different. In most regions, there are positive changes in agricultural emissions. However, a selection of regions experience negative environmental externalities: –Soil C (Poland, Southern Portugal), –Ammonia (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Alpes-Mediteranée). A strict balanced N fertilization can further reduce N leaching and NH 3 emissions and enhance GHG mitigation