Devon in 2038 and how should it affect our strategic planning now? Report of the work of Devon Futures Group

Devon Futures Who are we? –Met OfficeRob Varley –EDFMike Davy –Devon & Cornwall Business CouncilTim Jones –Devon Wildlife TrustPaul Gompertz –Environment AgencyPaul Sadler –Dartington Hall TrustVaughan Lindsay –Devon Community Council of DevonJay Talbot –DCC strategic intelligencePip Tucker –DCC Community StrategyIan Hobbs –DCC Environment, Economy & CultureEdward Chorlton –Devon and Cornwall Housing AssociationTheresa Butchers –DSPCaroline Rae –FacilitatorNicola Channon

What we tried to do We were asked to think about, and try to understand, what Devon might be like in the future. We heard evidence from experts in climate, energy, housing, transport, agriculture, and the environment We tried to think about what impact all this might have on our lives and what we should be doing now to respond

Work in progress

1979

What made us sit up and take notice?

Natural or human induced?

UK impacts Heatwaves: Summer ,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1, Jul08-Jul15-Jul22-Jul29-Jul05-Aug12-Aug19-Aug26-Aug no. of deaths temperature o C Average daily deaths ONS Estimated daily deaths 2003 Maximum temperature (London)

observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) s 2040s Temperature anomaly (wrt ) °C Devon impacts Heatwaves: The future

Axminster

So what? ‘Perfect storm’ of increasing demand for food, energy & water at same time as adapting to and mitigating climate change –Implications for size/shape of sector – less oil more labour? –Implications for how land is used and managed –reduced soil disturbance –Implications for protected areas –Implications for research and intelligence

In the past energy demand has mainly been driven by GDP and demographic growth GDP and population growth are the two main factors that have increase energy demand If this continued UK energy demand would increase slightly until 2030 Electricity and solid fuel consumption should grow the fastest Source: Global Insight 2008 European Energy and Environment Outlook (last actual year 2007) %

But fighting Climate Change will have a high impact on energy demand Tackling climate change requires a step change in energy consumption. Government’s target is to cut Greenhouse Gases emissions by 80% in 2050 (compared to 1990 level) Decarbonising electricity is a key step towards the target. The Climate Change Committee believes the electricity sector can reduce its emissions by 90% by 2030 by using wind and nuclear generation. Low CO2 electricity will then make a major contribution to decarbonising other sectors by substituting fossil fuels Source: Climate Change Committee, EDF Energy Analysis UK CO2 emissions (million tonnes) emissions 2050 Target Other (with non CO2 GHG) Industry Heat (Residential and Commercial) Transport (with Aviation & shipping) Electricity Total 80% reduction from 1990 Electricity Reduction by 2030

Other points 8-10 year time lag between knowing what is true and then acting upon it Period over the next 30 years – not just about 2039 but also about how we get there. Fortune favours the prepared mind.

So what? This is not just about climate change or reducing carbon, although they are important, it is about what we should be doing now to prepare for an uncertain future.

So what might Devon be like?

Getting to work well done for creating work hubs still too much congestion

Health and wellbeing –noticeably more elderly people –not enough carers –booming senior citizens social scene

Adapting to climate change - people more resilient to flooding; self-help worked - difficult development choices not made

Energy security - local community combined heat and power embraced - periodic blackouts for some, not for others

DSP Conference December 2039 Devon 2069 – are we ready?

Your job – in groups What can DSP do to plan for the scenarios in the future? Each group identify 3 items to feed back to the conference