1. Concito and the Danish Energy and Climate policy Susanne Krawack 24 October 2014

2. My presentation Setting the scene: The challenge Danish climate policy How green are we? Government Personal lifestyle The private sector Green Growth and Green Transition What are the barriers?

3. A think tank working with climate mitigation and adaptation policies. Politically independent. ”CONCITO will provide analyses, based on research and practice … which can be translated into direct action in politics, business and the responsibilities of every citizen.” The Constitution of CONCITO CONCITO

4. Member-based (100 members) Companies, Researchers, Civil society We provide research-based analysis and disseminate this to policy makers – often a second opinion! Tax system, biomass, transport technologies, consumption, embedded carbon in the building sector, agriculture…. CONCITO

5. Globale temperatures

6. Where are we heading? Illustration: David Roberts, Grist.org IPCC and Copenhagen 2009 recommended a 2 degree target. If current mitigation targets are met, we will reach 4 degrees. If all countries continue ”business as usual”, we are likely to reach 6 degrees. The impact from climate change, we are already experiencing is due to a temperature rise of only 0,8 degrees.

7. IEA: World Energy Outlook 2012 If we are to reach a maximum temperature rise by 2 degrees in this century, 2/3 of known fossil energy reserves must stay in the underground.

8. Conclusions: Sun, wind og biomass is far from enough. Nuclear power will be a nessecary technology. CCS is important. Gas will play a role as an intermediate energy source. Land use (forests and agriculture) must contribute negative to GHG emissions. Not only the energy system, but also consumption patterns must be altered. IPCC 2014:

9.  We expect 11 bio. people on the planet in 2050.  If all equally divide the tolerable level of CO2 emissions, there will be less than 2 tons per person per year.  Today an average Danish citizen has a CO2 emission of 18 tons (incl. consumption) So what do Danes do about that? The Climate challenge

10. The overall strategy Our Future Energy

12. 1.Energy efficiency: (810 PJ in 2010 to 520 PJ in 2050) A heavy obligation on energy companies. Building renovation. 2.Renewable energy: Wind Biomass (wood pellets) Biogas (slurry and organic waste) 3.Electrification: Industry, heating, transport The Nordic electricity market ”Smart Grid”, electric cars : Three Types of Initiatives : Three Types of Initiatives

13. Most emission reductions are made in the energy sector, included in the EU ETS system. The agricultural sector and the transport are not reducing their emissions. The consumption is left out. Biomass is important, but how much is really CO2 neutral? Is climate policy led by industrial interests? Second opinion

14. The Danish decoupling

16. ACO 2012 CO2 emission related to consumption

17. The CO2 footprint of a Danish citizen Scope 1: direkte energiforbrug, benzin, gasfyr, mv. Scope 2: el og fjernvarme

18. The individual choice The biggest challenge is.. Young people: Reduce flying. Men: Less meat and smaller cars. Women: Only buy what you will use and use it up.

19. Danish wind energy

20. Turnover in the wind industry

21. Will the green transitions create growth? Export of energy technologies

23. Second opinion Mitigation in the production sector is mainly driven by outsourcing Few incentives for companies to reduce GHG emissions – taxes are low. The development of windpower is mainly support to industry (due to ETS) There is a lot of greenwash by companies.

24. Green growth and green transition Green transition: is a fundamental change to a society, which emits less GHG and use less resources. It can hardly be achieved without change of positions of power. Green Growth: to create jobs in the ’green’ energy sector in Denmark by export of green solutions.

25. Barriers for green transition Companies and the population need long term incentives to change behavior. Government will not set a different and unpopular agenda - Major companies and lobbyists set the political agenda – and it is to consume more. The financial sector could create incentives, but does not Researchers and the press follow politicians and lobby organisations. Difficult to see where the change will come from – but there are initiatives from citizens.