Oliver Schaefer Policy Advisor EREC - European Renewable Energy Council Renewable Energy Development and Prospects – an Industry Point of View

Will the White Paper Targets Be Achieved? 2010 TYPE OF ENERGY 1995 EUROSTAT 2001 EUROSTAT ANNUAL GROWTH RATE % WHITE PAPER TARGETS 2010 ANNUAL GROWTH RATE NEEDED % 1. Wind2.5 GW17.2 GW GW Hydro87.1 GW91.7 GW GW Photovoltaics0.04 GWp0.26 GWp36.63 GWp Biomass44.8 Mtoe56.5 Mtoe Mtoe Geothermal2.72 Mtoe3.43 Mtoe Mtoe Solar Thermal Collectors 6.5 Mio m Mio m Mio m … yes, if specific support actions are taken soon for some technologies. Some of the targets must be revised.

Average Annual Growth Rate (AGR) by RE Technology in the EU15

Evaluation of Development Rates of RES up to the Present Hydro, Geothermal & PV: –Development rates as expected –Should reach the targets Biomass & Solar Collectors: –Development rates below expectations –Reaching the targets seems problematic Wind Energy: –Development rates largely above expectations –Should exceed target The possible overestimation of biomass and solar collector targets could be balanced by the possible underestimation of wind energy

2000TARGETS 2010TARGETS 2020 TYPE OF ENERGY Eurostat Conventio n % of total Eurostat Convention % of total Eurostat Convention % of total Total Gross Inland Consumption 1,455 1,576 (trends to 2030) 1, Wind Hydro Photovoltaics Biomass Geothermal STC Total Renewable Energies Contribution of RES to Total Inland Consumption Eurostat Convention (Mtoe)

Billion Euro Billion Euro Billion Euro Wind PV Biomass Hydro11920 Geothermal4711 Solar thermal TOTAL RES Total RES investment (2001 – 2020)

Billion Euro Billion Euro Wind9.4 – – PV0.2 – – 6.8 Biomass16.7 – – Hydro2.2 – – 19.1 Geothermal0.6 – – 6.3 Solar thermal1.3 – – 28.8 TOTAL RES30.4 – – Cumulative Avoided External Costs in the EU15 (2001 – 2020)

2010 Mt/year 2020 Mt/year Wind99236 PV2.224 Biomass Hydro2335 Geothermal5.815 Solar thermal1492 TOTAL RES % of total EU15 CO2 emissions in %21.9% Annual CO 2 Emission Reductions due to RES Penetration (2001 – 2020)

Billion Euro Billion Euro Wind PV Biomass-- Hydro Geothermal Solar thermal TOTAL RES Cumulative Avoided Fuel Costs in the EU15 (2001 – 2020)

Advanced International Policies Scenario for electricity 2040-Global, TWh

Dynamic Current Policies Scenario for electricity 2040 –Global, TWh

Advanced International Policies Scenario Annual Cumulative Growth Rates Wind33%28%20%7%2% Pv25%28%30%25%13% Biomass8%9%10%8%7% Small hydro6%8%10%8%6% Large hydro2% 1% 0% Geothermal6%12%9%7%5% Solar thermal0% 23%17%15% Marine0% 15%25%20%

Dynamic Current Policies Scenario Annual Cumulative Growth Rates wind33%25%17%9%4% pv25% 27%22%15% biomass8%7%8%6%5% small hydro6% 8%6%4% large hydro2%1% 0% geothermal6%9%7%5%4% solar thermal0% 20%15%13% marine tech0% 20%15%