Trends in biodiversity and environmental quality: Looking forward Jurgen Tack Anik Schneiders, Stijn Overloop, Myriam Dumortier, Maarten Hens, Luc De Bruyn, Johan Peymen, Toon Van Daele, Wouter Van Reeth, Anja De Braekeleer,… Purple Conference 26/5/2010

Climate change Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement agricultureurbanisation WFD Floods Dir Groundwater Dir Nitrate Dir… Natura 2000 Energy Dir EU white paper… MEA Ecosystem Serv. Biodiv 2010

Looking forward: landuse 2030

Climate change Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement WFD Floods Dir Groundwater Dir Nitrate Dir… Natura 2000 Energy Dir EU white paper… MEA Ecosystem Serv. Biodiv 2010 agricultureurbanisation

Environment & Nature exploration Looking forward…

Environment outlook Nature outlook

Subtitel > Tekst Land use model Flanders

Scenario’s Socio-economics Climate Environmental Quality (Europe) Environmental Quality (reference) Land use Reference Land use Segregation Land use Multifunctional Land use Reference Land use Segregation Land use Multifunctional

Urbanisation: Distance to “green areas” for inhabitants  Accessibility of “green areas”: decline  Peri-urban areas: increase 2005 ER 2030

Environment Outlook 2030 Chapter Agriculture Policy scenarios for agriculture & environment: - unchanged policy: Reference scenario shrinking land use by 5 % in 25 years growing productivity (tonnes/ha) - alternative policy: Europe scenario: - manure policy: 140 kg N/ha - manure processing at stable prices - lower nutrient content in animal feed - agriculture with environmental and nature objectives

Agriculture: change in land use > Reference decrease of 5% > Europadecrease of 3 %; Increase AEN

2005 ER 2030 Agriculture with environment & nature objectives > Europe-2030: increase in fields with environment & nature objectives

Critical load (nitrogen) > Decrease in areas overrunning the critical load according to the vegetation 2005 Europe 2030

Conclusion Urbanisation: increase Agricultural areas: decrease European goals demand larger areas for agricultural use (due to lower production capacity) Stricter manure policy is needed to reach water targets Critical load: Europe scenario necessary

Looking forward: rivers 2027

Climate change Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement WFD Floods Dir Groundwater Dir Nitrate Dir… Natura 2000 Energy Dir EU white paper… MEA Ecosystem Serv. Biodiv 2010 agricultureurbanisation

Environment Outlook 2030 Water quality Costs other sources agriculture companies public waste water treatment manure decree Manure advice, buffer strips, wintergreen cover

Scenario’s waterlopen 2027

Water quality: oxygen  good ecological quality : increase after R 2015E 2015E 2027 Minimal oxygen concentration (mg O ² /l) ≤ 2 > 2 en ≤ 4 > 4 en ≤ 6 > 6 en ≤ 8 ≥ 8

Water quality: restoration of fish populations R 2015E 2015E 2027 Rheophylic Fish populations: sensitive to pollution  restoration reproduction capacity : after Europe 2027 scenario Suitability : barrier only migratio low reproducttion moderate reproduction good reproduction optimal reproduction

Water quality : suitability for fish Rheophylic species sensitive for pollution E27 : jump forward Sensitive species: maximum = 45% of potential habitat Vulnerable Tolerant

Conclusions Environment Outlook 2030  Current and complementory measures will lower discharges into surface water.  Fysico-chemical water quality continues to increase, but phosphorous remains a major problem.  Phosphorous: important limiting factor for primary production and macrophyte growth  Biological quality increases, but in the most advanced scenario only between 45 and 60% of the rivers reaches a good water quality.

Looking forward: climate change

Climate change Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement agricultureurbanisation WFD Floods Dir Groundwater Dir Nitrate Dir… Natura 2000 Energy Dir EU white paper… MEA Ecosystem Serv. Biodiv 2010

Climate change: temperature Increase temperature: monthly average 2100 > Flanders 2100: +2,5 tot +9°C in summer

Climate change: precipitation Flanders 2100: 2 scenarios increase in winter precepitation Flanders 2100: all scenarios decrease in summer precepitation

Climate change: increased flood risk

Land use changes  Valley: decrease agriculture use, less ncrease build up areas, more opportunities for nature

Consequences for marsh vegetations Climate change  Valley: Opportunities for nature, for climate adaptation, for Carbon stocks,…

Conclusions Higher flood capacity will is needed Higher risks of drought in summer Risk of species loss increases “resilient” ecosystems will be needed Opportunities for marsh vegetation in flood areas Opportunities for different ecosystem services in flood areas

Some conclusions of the future… BeekforelYves Adams

Climate change Biodiversity Sustainable watermanagement agricultureurbanisation WFD Floods Dir Groundwater Dir Nitrate Dir… Natura 2000 Energy Dir EU white paper… MEA Ecosystem Serv. Biodiv 2010 Ecosystems with More resilience needed More buffer Capacity needed Increase peri urban area New holistic approach Decrease area Increase AEN Valley: opportunities for adaptation AEN increase needed Goals will Not be reached Temperature: increase Goals will Not be reached