1. Liana Prudencio and Sarah E. Null
Calling All Collaborators: Robust Decision-Making and Climate Adaptation
Liana Prudencio and Sarah E. Null
Aquatic Habitat, Climate, and Water Analysis (ACWA) Lab
Department of Watershed Sciences
Utah State University

2. Gray Stormwater Infrastructure and Urbanization
stream
less infiltration to groundwater
increased surface runoff
contaminants from roads, parking lots, roofs
Sets up the research problem

3. Green Stormwater Infrastructure
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Green Roofs
National Geographic
Rain Barrels and Gardens
Utah Rivers Council
Permeable Pavement
Urips
Alternative stormwater management practices (shown in green below) recover ecosystem services, such as infiltration to replenish groundwater, vegetation to filter runoff, and storage capacity to reduce runoff magnitude.
Vegetated Infiltration Areas
Morton-Roberts
Penn State
Subsurface Storage and Infiltration Systems
Landscape East & West
Torrent Resources

4. less reliability on snowpack and changes in runoff timing
Climate Change
More than 1/6th of the world’s population lives in snow-dominated regions and
depend on snowpack for water storage and supply (Barnett et al. 2005).
less reliability on snowpack and changes in runoff timing
stream
Sets up the research problem

5. EPA-STAR Project
team objective: to assess the potential of green infrastructure for managed aquifer recharge and storage to adapt to less reliability on snowpack as storage
Green Infrastructure Data Collection and Modeling
Vadose Zone and Groundwater Modeling
Ecosystem Services and Surface Water Modeling
Institutional/Community/
Stakeholder Involvement
Quality Assurance

6. EPA-STAR Project Red Butte Creek surface water model
Jordan River surface water model
rainfall-runoff model
green infrastructure model
groundwater models

7. ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? Uncertainty surface water models
current conditions
future resource demands
???
green infrastructure model
surface water models
groundwater models
climate change conditions
future sociopolitical landscape
???
???
ecological thresholds
???
future land use
???
future population
???
future economic conditions
???

8. Robust Decision-Making (RDM)
What policies and strategies meet our management goals under uncertainty?
1. Identify potential policy and management strategies, uncertainties, risks, and goals.
4. Compare performance of potential strategies, then either decide on which to implement or re-evaluate potential strategies and goals.
2. Model and estimate performance of potential strategies across uncertainties.
What strategies are robust and meet our goals in various scenarios?
3. Identify conditions under which potential strategies are vulnerable.

9. RDM in California’s State Water Plan
Iterative Steps of RDM
Volume 4 Reference Guide – Technical Analysis for the California Water Plan Update 2013

10. RDM in California’s State Water Plan
Step 1: Decision Structuring
XLRM Matrix Summarizing Scope of RDM Analysis
XLRM
X: Uncertainties
L: Management Strategies/Levers
R: Relationships or System Model
M: Goals and Metrics
Volume 4 Reference Guide – Technical Analysis for the California Water Plan Update 2013
Step 2: Simulation of Many Futures
22 climate sequences x 4 growth scenarios = 88 futures
22 climate sequences x 4 growth scenarios x 5 strategies = 440 simulations

11. RDM in California’s State Water Plan
Step 3: Vulnerability Analysis
Percent of Vulnerable Futures for Each Response Package for the Sacramento River Hydrologic Region
Volume 4 Reference Guide – Technical Analysis for the California Water Plan Update 2013

12. RDM in California’s State Water Plan
Step 4: Tradeoff Analysis
Trade-Off Curves of % of Vulnerable Futures VS. Cost for Different Metrics Across Response Packages for the Sacramento River Hydrologic Region
Volume 4 Reference Guide – Technical Analysis for the California Water Plan Update 2013

13. RDM for Stormwater Management:
Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley
1. Identify potential GSI strategies, uncertainties, risks, and goals.
4. Compare performance of potential GSI strategies, then either decide on which to implement or re-evaluate strategies and goals.
2. Model and estimate performance of potential GSI strategies across uncertainties.
3. Identify conditions under which potential GSI strategies are vulnerable.

14. RDM for Stormwater Management:
Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley
Step 1: Decision Structuring
a) What are the uncertain factors?
Climate Change: How will temperature and precipitation change?
Ecological Thresholds: Under what conditions are ecosystems and environmental benefits altered?

15. RDM for Stormwater Management:
Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley
Step 1: Decision Structuring
b) What are the potential GSI strategies?

16. RDM for Stormwater Management:
Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley
Red Butte Creek
surface water model
Jordan River surface water model
rainfall-runoff model
green infrastructure model
groundwater models
Step 1: Decision Structuring
c) What are the relationships in the system? What are the models simulating?

17. RDM for Stormwater Management:
Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley
Step 1: Decision Structuring
d) What are the goals, and how do we measure them?
Goals
Metrics
Variables
increased summer baseflow
duration of low flow conditions (days),
acre-feet in groundwater
flow
flood attenuation
flood magnitude (cms), duration (minutes), and rate of change (hydrograph slope)
water purification
pollutant concentration (mg/L) and conductivity (S/m)
specific conductance, turbidity, nutrients
(N and P), dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll, TSS
climate regulation
maximum weekly average temperature (°C) and maximum daily temperature (°C)
stream temperature
aquatic biodiversity
habitat suitability curves and conditions for Bonneville Cutthroat Trout and June Sucker
stream temperature, DO, TSS, etc.

18. Relationships or System Models (R)
RDM for Stormwater Management:
Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley
Step 1: Decision Structuring
Uncertainties (X)
GSI Strategies (L)
Climate Change
Ecological Thresholds
Bioswales
“R” Tanks
Vegetated Infiltration Basins
Dry Wells
Relationships or System Models (R)
Goals and Metrics (M)
Surface Water Models
Groundwater and Vadose Zone Models
Stormwater Quality Models
Rainfall-Runoff Models
Increased Summer Baseflow
Flood Attenuation
Water Purification
Climate Regulation
Aquatic Biodiversity

19. EPA-STAR Project Step 2: Simulation Modeling of Many Futures
groundwater models
green infrastructure model
surface water models
current conditions
changes in precipitation
changes in ecosystem goals/metrics
changes in temperature

20. Step 4: Comparison of Strategies/Tradeoffs
RDM for Stormwater Management:
Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) in Salt Lake Valley
Step 3: Vulnerability Analysis:
% of Futures Vulnerable
Step 4: Comparison of Strategies/Tradeoffs
Increased Summer Baseflow
Flood Attenuation
Water Purification
Climate Regulation
Aquatic Biodiversity
Bioswales
__%
“R” Tanks
Vegetated Infiltration Basins
Dry Wells
% of futures vulnerable
cost

21. Watershed Sciences, Utah State University
Contact info:
Liana Prudencio
Dr. Sarah Null
Watershed Sciences, Utah State University

22. Stormwater in Natural versus Urban Environments
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