Session 181 Risk Analysis RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE

Session 182 Quantitative vs. Qualitative Quantitative Analysis –Uses mathematical/ statistical data to derive numerical descriptions of risk –More precise analysis –More difficult to perform Qualitative –Uses defined terms (words) to describe and categorize risk –Less precise analysis –Easier to perform

Session 183 Quantitative Likelihood Can be expressed as either: –Frequency – gives the number of times of occurrence over a chosen timeframe. 3/year, 1/decade, 10/week. –Probability – expresses the outcome as a measure between 0 and 1, or as a percentage between 0% and 100%.

Session 184 Qualitative Likelihood Just one example…. Certain - >99% chance of occurring in a given year Likely % chance of occurring in a given year Possible % chance of occurring in a given year Unlikely % chance of occurring in a given year Rare % chance of occurring in a given year Extremely rare – <.1% chance of occurring in a given year

Session 185 Consequence Deaths/Fatalities (Human) Injuries (Human) Damages (Cost, reported in US dollars)

Session 186 Direct Losses “those first order consequences which occur immediately after an event” Fatalities Injuries Repair and replacement of damaged or destroyed public and private structures Relocation costs/temporary housing Loss of business inventory/agriculture Loss of income/rental costs Community response costs Cleanup costs

Session 187 Indirect Losses “may emerge much later, and may be much less easy to attribute directly to the event” Loss of income Input/output losses of businesses Reductions in business /personal spending – “ripple effects” Loss of institutional knowledge Mental illness Bereavement

Session 188 Tangible Losses “those for which a dollar value can be assigned” Cost of building repair/replacement Response costs Loss of inventory Loss of income

Session 189 Intangible Losses “those that cannot be expressed in universally accepted financial terms” Cultural losses Stress Mental illness Sentimental Value Environmental Losses Fatalities/Injuries

Session 1810 Gains Decreases in future hazard risk New technologies used in reconstruction Removal of old/unused/hazardous buildings Jobs created in reconstruction Greater public recognition of hazard risk Local/State/Federal funds Environmental Benefits

Session 1811 Quantitative Consequence Deaths/Fatalities – 55 people killed Injuries – 530 people injured, 56 seriously Damages - $2 billion in damages, $980 million in insured losses

Session 1812 Qualitative Consequence Just one example…. Insignificant - No injuries or fatalities. Minor - Small number of injuries but no fatalities. First aid treatment required. Moderate - Medical treatment needed but no fatalities. Some hospitalization. Major - Extensive injuries, significant hospitalization. Fatalities. Catastrophic - Large number of severe injuries. Extended and large numbers requiring hospitalization.

Session 1813 Other Measures of Consequence Emergency Operations Social Disruption Disruption to Economy Environmental Impacts

Session 1814 Trends Changes in Disaster Frequency –Changes in the attributes of the hazard –Changes in Human Activity Changes in Disaster Consequences –Changes in the attributes of the hazard –Changes in human activity

Session Changes in Human Activities Population Growth Land Pressure Economic Growth Technological Innovation Social Expectations Growing Interdependence

Session Steps of Risk Analysis 1.Calculate the (quantitative) likelihood of each identified hazard 2.Calculate the (quantitative) consequences that are expected to occur for each hazard 3.Develop a locally-tailored qualitative system of measurement 4.Translate all quantitative data into qualitative measures