1. Risk Assessment – all risks approach
John F. Ring
BE, Dip.OSH, Dip.SHWW ,Dip.Env.Eng., MIITD, MIFS, MIOSH, Eur Ing C.Eng.MIEI.
College Safety Officer, UCC

2. Application of Risk Assessment
EU/ IRL Legislative Requirement
Safety Management
Risk Management

3. The Law & Risk Assessment
A Safety Statement must be based on a completed risk assessment
Risk Assessments must be maintained and up-dated.
HSA Inspectors in Cork require to see Risk Assessments as follows:
Job, room, area, equipment, activity, process basis

4. Application of Risk Assessment
Safety Management
Prioritise safety action programme.
Rank and prioritise safety audit findings.
Evaluate benefit of accident prevention measures & costings.
Risk Management
Relative ranking of various types of risks ( all potential losses)
Prioritise actions.
Prioritise expenditure (via risk and risk reduction benefits)

5. Types of Risk Assessment
Quantitative
Scientific studies & measurements
Comparison of results with limit values
Occ. Hygiene, Noise, Structural design, Ergonomics etc.
Qualitative
Semi-scientific or non scientific
Judgement decisions
Professional and personal experiences/ biases.
Codes of Practice

6. Qualitative Risk Assessment (1)
‘Decide’ on risk level using judgement, experience and technical knowledge
Low or Medium
High or Very High
Extremely Subjective
Personal and individual variations!
May not be ‘bought in to’ by any medium to large scale organisation

7. Qualitative Risk Assessment (2)
Use a numerical model to assess risk.
Probability and consequence models
Judgement, technical knowledge and experience required.
Subjectivity remains
A good model reduces personal & individual biases/ variations !!
Could be ‘bought in to’ by any medium to large scale company

8. Problems with Numerical Models
‘Every’ risk is either Very High or Low!
Assessments often do not relate to reality!
Results are easily rubbished!
Not seen to be very scientific!
Users may not be considered ‘professional’
Non- life risks are generally not covered.
How can other risk priorities be compared?

9. Risk Nomogram in use at UCC
Semi-scientific
Easy to Use
Well received
Risk Assessment by Dept. (devolved)
Little variations in use
Good spread of results
Source: Dr. Hani Raafat of Aston Univ.
Economic, Life and Environment Risk Types (on 1 model)
Graded Consequences
Probability /Frequency
Exposure duration

10. Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat
Four Types of Risk Consequences
Economic (6 categories)
Personnel (6 categories)
Public and Reaction (6 categories)
Environment (6 categories)

11. Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Risk Consequence 1: Economic
Category I < €1 k
Category II < €10 k
Category III < €100 k
Category IV < €1 m
Category V > €1 m
Category VI Total Loss

12. Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Risk Consequence 2 : Personnel
Category I : Insignificant
Category II : Minor
Category III : Major
Category IV : Severe
Category V : Fatality
Category VI : Multiple Fatalities

13. Definitions: Effects on Personnel
Insignificant: No human injury expected or < 3 days lost time
Minor: Injury/ Illness, 3 – 28 or 56 days lost time, full recovery expected.
Major: Injury/Illness, 28 + or 56+ days lost time, or permanent slight incapacity
Severe: Permanent incapacitating injury/ illness.

14. Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Risk Consequence 3: Public and Reaction
Category I : Nuisance ( Mild reaction)
Category II : Complaints ( Minor local outcry)
Category III: GP attendances /Complaints ++.)
Category IV: Hospitalisation or Local Media attn
Category V : Serious Injury or National Media attn
Category VI : Fatality or Govt & Media attn

15. Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Risk Consequence 4: Environment
Category I : Insignificant
Category II : Temp. Short Term Damage
Category III : Major Pollution
Category IV : Severe Pollution
Category V : Widespread Damage
Category VI : Catastrophic Damage

16. Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Probability (Likelihood): Ratings/Experiences
1 in 10 or (Frequent)
1 in 100 or (Probable)
1 in 1,000 or (Occasional.)
1 in 10,000 or (Remote)
1 in 100,000 or (Improbable)
1 in 1,000,000 or (Extremely remote)

17. Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Exposure to Hazard: Time (% of 24 hr day)
< 1 % (very rare)
1 % (rare)
25 %
50 %
75 %
100 % (continuous)

18. Risk Level Tie Line High (D) Moderate (B) Low (A) Risk Calculator
Frequency
Risk Level
Risk Conseq.
Frequent (10 -1 )
Exposure ( % time)
High (D)
Probable ( )
<1% 1% VI V
Substantial (C)
Occasional ( )
25% iv
50%
III
75%
Remote ( )
100% II
Moderate (B)
( 24 hr day) I
Improbable ( )
Low (A)
Risk types1 to 4
Extremely Remote (10 -6 )
Risk Calculator

19. Life Risk Case Study A ( Risk Type: Staff safety)
Unguarded machine – potential for limb amputation
Regular breakdowns and clogging
untrained operators
No maintenance procedures
6 hours operation /day = 25% of 24 hr day
Regular accidents

20. Risk Level 1 1 Tie Line High (D) Moderate (B) Low (A) Risk Calculator
Frequency
Risk Level
Risk Conseq.
Frequent (10 -1 )
Exposure ( % time)
High (D)
Probable ( )
<1% 1% VI V
Substantial (C)
Occasional ( )
25% iv
50%
III
75%
Remote ( )
100% II
Moderate (B)
( 24 hr day) I
Improbable ( )
Low (A)
Risk types1 to 4
Extremely Remote (10 -6 )
Risk Calculator

21. Improvement Option 1
Train staff and provide PPE ( traditional response!)
Same operating hours & machine set up

22. Risk Level Tie Line # 1 # 1 High (D) Moderate (B) Low (A)
Frequency
Risk Level
Risk Conseq.
Frequent (10 -1 )
Exposure ( % time)
High (D)
Probable ( )
<1% 1% VI
# 1 V
# 1
Substantial (C)
Occasional ( )
25% iv
50%
III
75%
Remote ( )
100% II
Moderate (B)
( 24 hr day) I
Improbable ( )
Low (A)
Risk types1 to 4
Extremely Remote (10 -6 )
Risk Calculator

23. Improvement Option 2 Train staff and provide PPE has been tried
Consider reducing operating hours to 3 hours per day = 12.5% of a 24 hour day
Retain machine set up ( un-guarded)

24. Risk Level Tie Line # 2 # 2 High (D) Moderate (B) Low (A)
Frequency
Risk Level
Risk Conseq.
Frequent (10 -1 )
Exposure ( % time)
High (D)
Probable ( )
<1% 1% VI V
Substantial (C)
Occasional ( )
25% iv
# 2
50%
III
75%
Remote ( )
100% II
Moderate (B)
( 24 hr day) I
# 2
Improbable ( )
Low (A)
Risk types1 to 4
Extremely Remote (10 -6 )
Risk Calculator

25. Improvement Option 3
Guard the machine / provide appropriate interlocks, emergency shut off devices, power isolation facilities
Introduce maintenance lock off systems and permit to work
Train staff, resume normal hours
Maintain the equipment

26. Risk Level Tie Line # 3 # 3 High (D) Moderate (B) Low (A)
Frequency
Risk Level
Risk Conseq.
Frequent (10 -1 )
Exposure ( % time)
High (D)
Probable ( )
<1% 1% VI V
Substantial (C)
Occasional ( )
25% iv
50%
III
75%
Remote ( )
100% II
Moderate (B)
( 24 hr day) I
Improbable ( )
Low (A)
Risk types1 to 4
Extremely Remote (10 -6 )
# 3
# 3
Risk Calculator